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Fast glacier motion is facilitated by slip at the ice-bed interface. For slip over rigid beds, areas of ice-bed separation (cavities) can exert significant control on slip dynamics. Analytic models of these systems assume that cavities instantaneously adjust to changes in slip and effective pressure forcings, but recent studies indicate transient forcings violate this—and other—underlying assumptions. To assess these incongruities, we conducted novel experiments emulating hard-bedded slip with ice-bed separation under periodic effective pressure transients. We slid an ice-ring over a sinusoidal bed while varying the applied overburden stress to emulate subglacial effective pressure cycles observed in nature and continuously recorded mechanical and geometric system responses. We observed characteristic lags and nonlinearities in system responses that were sensitive to forcing periodicity and trajectory. This gave rise to hysteresis not predicted in analytic theory, which we ascribed to a combination of geometric, thermal and rheologic processes. This framework corroborates other studies of transient glacier slip and we used it to place new constraints on transient phenomena observed in the field. Despite these divergences, average system responses converged toward model predictions, suggesting that analytic theory remains applicable for modeling longer-term behaviors of transiently forced slip with ice-bed separation.
Long-acting injectable antipsychotics (LAIs) reduce relapses in schizophrenia; however, most healthcare professionals (HCPs) reserve LAIs for nonadherence to oral antipsychotics (OAs) or severe disease.
Methods
US HCPs were surveyed regarding attitudes and perceptions toward LAIs for schizophrenia and LAI selection preferences. Respondents were grouped by LAI use (high [≥31% of patients using LAIs], low [≤14% using LAIs]; mid not analyzed) and archetype based on response to, “Which of the following best fits the current way you view your use of [LAIs] for your patients with schizophrenia?” (see responses below).
Results
Respondents (106 high, 130 low LAI use) were distributed across early LAI use (n=123), severity-reserved (n=88), adherence-reserved (n=113), and LAI-hesitant (n=56) archetypes.
Across all groups, HCPs estimated OA nonadherence in their practice (21%– 32%) to be lower than for patients nationwide (50%– 56%). Overall, 27% were dissatisfied with their LAI:OA use ratio, most thinking their OA use was too high. In all groups, side effects/tolerability was ranked as most important when choosing an LAI and “preference for the molecule” was ranked least important. Overall, 71%– 77% of HCPs were somewhat/much more likely to use a particular LAI based on multiple injection site options, small/on par needle, and price, and 63%– 82% of HCPs were somewhat/much more likely to select an LAI dosed once monthly or less often compared with an LAI dosed once every 2 weeks (8%). HCPs with high LAI use or early LAI use archetype were more likely to disagree that managing patients with schizophrenia increased their stress (64% and 63% vs 27%-45%, P<.05 each) and/or left them feeling “burned out” (77% and 79% vs 50%– 64%, P<.05 each).
Compared with other groups, greater proportions with high LAI use or early LAI use archetype consistently read new LAI publications (18% and 19% vs 0%– 5%, P<.01) and were confident in key aspects of LAI treatment (ie, dosing, managing side effects, access; 67%– 74% and 59%– 70% vs 11%– 57%, P<.05 each).
HCPs with low LAI use estimated the proportion of patients who initially refuse LAIs to be higher (mean, 55%) than those with low LAI use (44%, P<.01); there were no differences among archetypes (49%– 54%). HCPs with high LAI use or early LAI use archetype were more likely to “use any means necessary to ensure that a patient is on an LAI” vs other groups (44% and 51% vs 5%– 22%, P<.01 each) or had used guardianship to assist with treatment (70% and 69% vs 32%– 56%, P<.05 each); greater proportions with high LAI use or early LAI use archetype strongly agreed it was “worth [their] time to resolve issues with the insurance company” (42% and 45% vs 16%– 30%, P<.05 each) and were confident they would be able to do so (23% and 20% vs 2%– 11%, P<.05 each). Greater proportions of HCPs with early LAI use archetype vs the severity-reserved archetype strongly agreed that they attempt to determine the patient’s/caregiver’s preferred role before involving them (43% vs 27%, P<.05) and encourage them to participate (72% vs 57%, P<.05) in shared decision-making.
Conclusions
Comparing HCPs with high LAI use or early LAI use archetype vs other groups, multiple factors (eg, attitudes, preferences, training, knowledge base) combine to influence LAI use. These results highlight considerations for developing educational materials to increase LAI use in this population.
Peatlands, covering approximately one-third of global wetlands, provide various ecological functions but are highly vulnerable to climate change, with their changes in space and time requiring monitoring. The sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Islands (PEIs) are a key conservation area for South Africa, as well as for the preservation of terrestrial ecosystems in the region. Peatlands (mires) found here are threatened by climate change, yet their distribution factors are poorly understood. This study attempted to predict mire distribution on the PEIs using species distribution models (SDMs) employing multiple regression-based and machine-learning models. The random forest model performed best. Key influencing factors were the Normalized Difference Water Index and slope, with low annual mean temperature, with low annual mean temperature, precipitation seasonality and distance from the coast being less influential. Despite moderate predictive ability, the model could only identify general areas of mires, not specific ones. Therefore, this study showed limited support for the use of SDMs in predicting mire distributions on the sub-Antarctic PEIs. It is recommended to refine the criteria used to select environmental factors and enhance the geospatial resolution of the data to improve the predictive accuracy of the models.
Emerging evidence suggests that routine physical activity may improve exercise capacity, long-term outcomes, and quality of life in individuals with Fontan circulation. Despite this, it is unclear how active these individuals are and what guidance they receive from medical providers regarding physical activity. The aim of this study was to survey Fontan patients on personal physical activity behaviours and their cardiologist-directed physical activity recommendations to set a baseline for future targeted efforts to improve this.
Methods:
An electronic survey assessing physical activity habits and cardiologist-directed guidance was developed in concert with content experts and patients/parents and shared via a social media campaign with Fontan patients and their families.
Results:
A total of 168 individuals completed the survey. The median age of respondents was 10 years, 51% identifying as male. Overall, 21% of respondents spend > 5 hours per week engaged in low-exertion activity and only 7% spend > 5 hours per week engaged in high-exertion activity. In all domains questioned, pre-adolescents reported higher participation rates than adolescents. Nearly half (43%) of respondents reported that they do not discuss activity recommendations with their cardiologist.
Conclusions:
Despite increasing evidence over the last two decades demonstrating the benefit of exercise for individuals living with Fontan circulation, only a minority of patients report engaging in significant amounts of physical activity or discussing activity goals with their cardiologist. Specific, individualized, and actionable education needs to be provided to patients, families, and providers to promote and support regular physical activity in this patient population.
Challenges to communication between families and care providers of paediatric patients in intensive care units (ICU) include variability of communication preferences, mismatched goals of care, and difficulties carrying forward family preferences from provider to provider. Our objectives were to develop and test an assessment tool that queries parents of children requiring cardiac intensive care about their communication preferences and to determine if this tool facilitates patient-centred care and improves families’ ICU experience.
Design:
In this quality improvement initiative, a novel tool was developed, the Parental Communication Assessment (PCA), which asked parents with children hospitalised in the cardiac ICU about their communication preferences. Participants were prospectively randomised to the intervention group, which received the PCA, or to standard care. All participants completed a follow-up survey evaluating satisfaction with communication.
Main Results:
One hundred thirteen participants enrolled and 56 were randomised to the intervention group. Participants who received the PCA preferred detail-oriented communication over big picture. Most parents understood the daily discussions on rounds (64%) and felt comfortable expressing concerns (68%). Eighty-six percent reported the PCA was worthwhile. Parents were generally satisfied with communication. However, an important proportion felt unprepared for difficult decisions or setbacks, inadequately included or supported in decision-making, and that they lacked control over their child’s care. There were no significant differences between the intervention and control groups in their communication satisfaction results.
Conclusions:
Parents with children hospitalised in the paediatric ICU demonstrated diverse communication preferences. Most participants felt overall satisfied with communication, but individualising communication with patients’ families according to their preferences may improve their experience.
Magnetic reconnection is an important process in astrophysical environments, as it reconfigures magnetic field topology and converts magnetic energy into thermal and kinetic energy. In extreme astrophysical systems, such as black hole coronae and pulsar magnetospheres, radiative cooling modifies the energy partition by radiating away internal energy, which can lead to the radiative collapse of the reconnection layer. In this paper, we perform two- and three-dimensional simulations to model the MARZ (Magnetic Reconnection on Z) experiments, which are designed to access cooling rates in the laboratory necessary to investigate reconnection in a previously unexplored radiatively cooled regime. These simulations are performed in GORGON, an Eulerian two-temperature resistive magnetohydrodynamic code, which models the experimental geometry comprising two exploding wire arrays driven by 20 MA of current on the Z machine (Sandia National Laboratories). Radiative losses are implemented using non-local thermodynamic equilibrium tables computed using the atomic code Spk, and we probe the effects of radiation transport by implementing both a local radiation loss model and $P_{1/3}$ multi-group radiation transport. The load produces highly collisional, super-Alfvénic (Alfvén Mach number $M_A \approx 1.5$), supersonic (Sonic Mach number $M_S \approx 4-5$) strongly driven plasma flows which generate an elongated reconnection layer (Aspect Ratio $L/\delta \approx 100$, Lundquist number $S_L \approx 400$). The reconnection layer undergoes radiative collapse when the radiative losses exceed the rates of ohmic and compressional heating (cooling rate/hydrodynamic transit rate = $\tau _{\text {cool}}^{-1}/\tau _{H}^{-1}\approx 100$); this generates a cold strongly compressed current sheet, leading to an accelerated reconnection rate, consistent with theoretical predictions. Finally, the current sheet is also unstable to the plasmoid instability, but the magnetic islands are extinguished by strong radiative cooling before ejection from the layer.
The rising prevalence of mental illness among youth has underscored the critical need for proficient therapists trained in effective methods for treating prevalent mental disorders. As mental health services grapple with resource constraints, the demand for shorter training programs has increased. This study aimed to investigate whether therapist competence improves continuously over a two-year cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) training course, whether specific CBT skills show greater improvement than generic skills, and whether self-perceived competence varies based on therapist characteristics. Data were gathered from seven different CBT training courses spanning the years 2013–2021 involving a total of 151 Norwegian therapists. Therapist self-assessed their CBT competence using the Cognitive Therapy and Adherence Scale (CTACS). The collected data were analysed using mixed effects models using the R program. The findings revealed a significant increase in self-reported competence throughout the two-year training period. Notably, skills related to case formulation and CBT techniques displayed the most substantial improvements, indicating a high level of competence attained by the conclusion of training. No significant interactions were identified between time and therapist characteristics. The outcomes of this study support the efficacy of in-depth training through an extended CBT course spanning multiple semesters. The observed progress in CBT skills suggests that investments in therapist training can yield high levels of competence. Furthermore, this investment appears warranted regardless of therapists’ individual characteristics.
Key learning aims
(1) To gain insight into the differential development of generic and CBT specific competence during CBT training.
(2) To reflect on the significance of therapist characteristics in the training process.
(3) To reflect on the possible importance of reaching a high level of CBT competence during CBT training.
Natural language processing (NLP) methods hold promise for improving clinical prediction by utilising information otherwise hidden in the clinical notes of electronic health records. However, clinical practice – as well as the systems and databases in which clinical notes are recorded and stored – change over time. As a consequence, the content of clinical notes may also change over time, which could degrade the performance of prediction models. Despite its importance, the stability of clinical notes over time has rarely been tested.
Methods:
The lexical stability of clinical notes from the Psychiatric Services of the Central Denmark Region in the period from January 1, 2011, to November 22, 2021 (a total of 14,811,551 clinical notes describing 129,570 patients) was assessed by quantifying sentence length, readability, syntactic complexity and clinical content. Changepoint detection models were used to estimate potential changes in these metrics.
Results:
We find lexical stability of the clinical notes over time, with minor deviations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Out of 2988 data points, 17 possible changepoints (corresponding to 0.6%) were detected. The majority of these were related to the discontinuation of a specific note type.
Conclusion:
We find lexical and syntactic stability of clinical notes from psychiatric services over time, which bodes well for the use of NLP for predictive modelling in clinical psychiatry.
Small quantities of liquid water lining triple junctions in polycrystalline glacier ice form connected vein networks that enable material exchange with underlying basal environments. Diffuse debris concentrations commonly observed in ice marginal regions might be attributed to this mechanism. Following recent cryogenic ring-shear experiments, we observed emplacement along grain boundaries of loess particles several tens of microns in size. Here, we describe an idealized model of vein liquid flow to elucidate conditions favoring such particle transport. Gradients in liquid potential drive flow toward colder temperatures and lower solute concentrations, while deviations of the ice stress state from hydrostatic balance produce additional suction toward anomalously low ice pressures. Our model predicts particle entrainment following both modest warming along the basal interface resulting from anticipated natural changes in effective stress, and the interior relaxation of temperature and solute concentration imposed by our experimental protocols. Comparisons with experimental observations are encouraging, but suggest that liquid flow rates are somewhat higher and/or more effective at dragging larger particles than predicted by our idealized model with nominal parameter choices. Diffuse debris entrainment extending several meters above the glacier bed likely requires a more sophisticated treatment that incorporates effects of ice deformation or other processes.
Consumption of traditional foods is decreasing amid a lifestyle transition in Greenland as incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) increases. In homozygous carriers of a TBC1D4 variant, conferring postprandial insulin resistance, the risk of T2D is markedly higher. We investigated the effects of traditional marine diets on glucose homoeostasis and cardio-metabolic health in Greenlandic Inuit carriers and non-carriers of the variant in a randomised crossover study consisting of two 4-week dietary interventions: Traditional (marine-based, low-carbohydrate) and Western (high in imported meats and carbohydrates). Oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT, 2-h), 14-d continuous glucose and cardio-metabolic markers were assessed to investigate the effect of diet and genotype. Compared with the Western diet, the Traditional diet reduced mean and maximum daily blood glucose by 0·17 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·05, 0·29; P = 0·006) and 0·26 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·06, 0·46; P = 0·010), respectively, with dose-dependency. Furthermore, it gave rise to a weight loss of 0·5 kg (95 % CI; 0·09, 0·90; P = 0·016) relative to the Western diet and 4 % (95 % CI 1, 9; P = 0·018) lower LDL:HDL-cholesterol, which after adjustment for weight loss appeared to be driven by HDL elevation (0·09 mmol/l (0·03, 0·15), P = 0·006). A diet–gene interaction was indicated on insulin sensitivity in the OGTT (p = 0·093), which reflected a non-significant increase of 1·4 (–0·6, 3·5) mmol/l in carrier 2-h glucose. A Traditional diet marginally improved daily glycaemic control and plasma lipid profile compared with a Westernised diet in Greenlandic Inuit. Possible adverse effects on glucose tolerance in carriers of the TBC1D4 variant warrant further studies.
The aim of this study was to quantify the time delay between screening and initiation of contact isolation for carriers of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)–producing Enterobacterales (ESBL-E).
Methods:
This study was a secondary analysis of contact isolation periods in a cluster-randomized controlled trial that compared 2 strategies to control ESBL-E (trial no. ISRCTN57648070). Patients admitted to 20 non-ICU wards in Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland were screened for ESBL-E carriage on admission, weekly thereafter, and on discharge. Data collection included the day of sampling, the day the wards were notified of the result, and subsequent ESBL-E isolation days.
Results:
Between January 2014 and August 2016, 19,122 patients, with a length of stay ≥2 days were included. At least 1 culture was collected for 16,091 patients (84%), with a median duration between the admission day and the day of first sample collection of 2 days (interquartile range [IQR], 1–3). Moreover, 854 (41%) of all 2,078 ESBL-E carriers remained without isolation during their hospital stay. In total, 6,040 ESBL-E days (32% of all ESBL-E days) accrued for patients who were not isolated. Of 2,078 ESBL-E-carriers, 1,478 ESBL-E carriers (71%) had no previous history of ESBL-E carriage. Also, 697 (34%) were placed in contact isolation with a delay of 4 days (IQR, 2–5), accounting for 2,723 nonisolation days (15% of ESBL-E days).
Conclusions:
Even with extensive surveillance screening, almost one-third of all ESBL-E days were nonisolation days. Limitations in routine culture-based ESBL-E detection impeded timely and exhaustive implementation of targeted contact isolation.
Avian influenza (AI) is an important disease that has significant implications for animal and human health. High pathogenicity AI (HPAI) has emerged in consecutive seasons within the UK to cause the largest outbreaks recorded. Statutory measures to control outbreaks of AI virus (AIV) at poultry farms involve disposal of all birds on infected premises. Understanding of the timing of incursions into the UK could facilitate decisions on improved responses. During the autumnal migration and wintering period (autumn 2019– spring 2020), three active sampling approaches were trialled for wild bird species considered likely to be involved in captive AI outbreaks with retrospective laboratory testing undertaken to define the presence of AIV.
Faecal sampling of birds (n = 594) caught during routine and responsive mist net sampling failed to detect AIV. Cloacal sampling of hunter-harvested waterfowl (n = 146) detected seven positive samples from three species with the earliest detection on the 17 October 2020. Statutory sampling first detected AIV in wild and captive birds on 3 November 2020. We conclude that hunter sourced sampling of waterfowl presents an opportunity to detect AI within the UK in advance of outbreaks on poultry farms and allow for early intervention measures to protect the national poultry flock.
LiDAR coverage of a large contiguous area within the Mirador-Calakmul Karst Basin (MCKB) of northern Guatemala has identified a concentration of Preclassic Maya sites (ca. 1000 b.c.–a.d. 150) connected by causeways, forming a web of implied social, political, and economic interactions. This article is an introduction to one of the largest, contiguous, regional LiDAR studies published to date in the Maya Lowlands. More than 775 ancient Maya settlements are identified within the MCKB, and 189 more in the surrounding karstic ridge, which we condensed into 417 ancient cities, towns, and villages of at least six preliminary tiers based on surface area, volumetrics, and architectural configurations. Many tiered sites date to the Middle and Late Preclassic periods, as determined by archaeological testing, and volumetrics of contemporaneously constructed and/or occupied architecture with similar morphological characteristics. Monumental architecture, consistent architectural formats, specific site boundaries, water management/collection facilities, and 177 km of elevated Preclassic causeways suggest labor investments that defy organizational capabilities of lesser polities and potentially portray the strategies of governance in the Preclassic period. Settlement distributions, architectural continuities, chronological contemporaneity, and volumetric considerations of sites provide evidence for early centralized administrative and socio-economic strategies within a defined geographical region.
Glacier motion responds dynamically to changing meltwater inputs, but the multi-decadal response of basal sliding to climate remains poorly constrained due to its sensitivity across multiple timescales. Observational records of glacier motion provide critical benchmarks to decode processes influencing glacier dynamics, but multi-decadal records that precede satellite observation and modern warming are rare. Here we present a record of motion in the ablation zone of Saskatchewan Glacier that spans seven decades. We combine in situ and remote-sensing observations to inform a first-order glacier flow model used to estimate the relative contributions of sliding and internal deformation on dynamics. We find a significant increase in basal sliding rates between melt-seasons in the 1950s and those in the 1990s and 2010s and explore three process-based explanations for this anomalous behavior: (i) the glacier surface steepened over seven decades, maintaining flow-driving stresses despite sustained thinning; (ii) the formation of a proglacial lake after 1955 may support elevated basal water pressures; and (iii) subglacial topography may cause dynamic responses specific to Saskatchewan Glacier. Although further constraints are necessary to ascertain which processes are of greatest importance for Saskatchewan Glacier's dynamic evolution, this record provides a benchmark for studies of multi-decadal glacier dynamics.
The six-item Positive And Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS-6) is short psychometric valid scale quantifying the severity of core schizophrenia symptoms. Using PANSS-6 to guide treatment decision-making requires that staff members’ ratings are valid and reliable.
Objectives
The objective of the study was to evaluate whether such valid and reliable PANSS-6 ratings can be obtained through a video-based training program.
Methods
One-hundred-and-four staff members from Aarhus University Hospital - Psychiatry, Denmark participated in the training. Participants conducted baseline PANSS-6 ratings based on a video of a patient being interviewed using the Simplified Positive And Negative Symptoms interview (SNAPSI). Subsequently, a theoretical introduction video was displayed followed by five SNAPSI patient interviews. After each SNAPSI video, individual ratings were performed before a video providing the gold standard scores was displayed. The validity of ratings was estimated by calculating the proportion of participants not deviating from the gold standard scores with >2 points on individual items or >6 points on the PANSS-6 total score. Reliability was evaluated after each step in the training by means of Gwet’s Agreement Coefficient (Gwet).
Results
By the end of the training, 72% of the participants rated within the acceptable deviations of the gold standard, ranging from 60% (nurses) to 91% (medical doctors/psychologists). The reliability improved (Gwet baseline vs. endpoint) for all PANSS-6 items, except for Blunted affect.
Conclusions
The majority of the staff members conducted valid PANSS-6 ratings after a brief standardized training program, supporting the implementation of PANSS-6 in clinical settings to facilitate measurement-based care.
Conflict of interest
Dr. Opler is a full-time employee of MedAvante-ProPhase Inc. Dr. Correll has been a consultant and/or advisor to or have received honoraria from: Acadia, Alkermes, Allergan, Angelini, Axsome, Gedeon Richter, Gerson Lehrman Group, Indivior, IntraCellular T
The quality of life and lifespan are greatly reduced among individuals with mental illness. To improve prognosis, the nascent field of precision psychiatry aims to provide personalised predictions for the course of illness and response to treatment. Unfortunately, the results of precision psychiatry studies are rarely externally validated, almost never implemented in clinical practice, and tend to focus on a few selected outcomes. To overcome these challenges, we have established the PSYchiatric Clinical Outcome Prediction (PSYCOP) cohort, which will form the basis for extensive studies in the upcoming years.
Methods:
PSYCOP is a retrospective cohort study that includes all patients with at least one contact with the psychiatric services of the Central Denmark Region in the period from January 1, 2011, to October 28, 2020 (n = 119 291). All data from the electronic health records (EHR) are included, spanning diagnoses, information on treatments, clinical notes, discharge summaries, laboratory tests, etc. Based on these data, machine learning methods will be used to make prediction models for a range of clinical outcomes, such as diagnostic shifts, treatment response, medical comorbidity, and premature mortality, with an explicit focus on clinical feasibility and implementation.
Discussions:
We expect that studies based on the PSYCOP cohort will advance the field of precision psychiatry through the use of state-of-the-art machine learning methods on a large and representative data set. Implementation of prediction models in clinical psychiatry will likely improve treatment and, hopefully, increase the quality of life and lifespan of those with mental illness.
We evaluated the early impact of a new hospital-based health technology assessment (HB-HTA) program, called Smart Innovation, at the University of Washington Medical Center (UWMC).
Methods
We compared the UWMC's utilization trends for two surgical procedures to control hospitals by evaluating the difference before and after adoption decisions: (i) a new filter for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) procedures that treat aortic valve stenosis and (ii) microwave ablation (MWA) for treating hepatocellular carcinoma. We used descriptive statistics to assess the difference between the UWMC and controls for TAVR and MWA procedures and multivariate difference-in-differences (DID) analyses to test for statistical significance.
Results
The UWMC experienced a 10 percent reduction in TAVR procedures compared with controls following the implementation of the TAVR Sentinel filter. The DID regression model indicated a 1.5 reduction in the number of TAVR procedures per quarter at the UWMC between the pre- and post period, which was not statistically significant (p-value: .87). The UWMC experienced a 51 percent reduction in utilization when compared with controls for MWA procedures in the pre- and post periods. The DID model for MWA indicated an 18.8 decrease in utilization per quarter during the study period for the UWMC, which was statistically significant (p-value: .0007). For MWA procedures, the UWMC experienced a $647,658 dollar reduction in total costs in the post period compared with controls.
Conclusions
When the UWMC used HB-HTA methods for technology adoption, there was a reduction in utilization and total costs when compared with controls; however, when the UWMC adopted a new technology without using HB-HTA methods, there was no difference in utilization.
In this study, we examined the relationship between polygenic liability for depression and number of stressful life events (SLEs) as risk factors for early-onset depression treated in inpatient, outpatient or emergency room settings at psychiatric hospitals in Denmark.
Methods
Data were drawn from the iPSYCH2012 case-cohort sample, a population-based sample of individuals born in Denmark between 1981 and 2005. The sample included 18 532 individuals who were diagnosed with depression by a psychiatrist by age 31 years, and a comparison group of 20 184 individuals. Information on SLEs was obtained from nationwide registers and operationalized as a time-varying count variable. Hazard ratios and cumulative incidence rates were estimated using Cox regressions.
Results
Risk for depression increased by 35% with each standard deviation increase in polygenic liability (p < 0.0001), and 36% (p < 0.0001) with each additional SLE. There was a small interaction between polygenic liability and SLEs (β = −0.04, p = 0.0009). The probability of being diagnosed with depression in a hospital-based setting between ages 15 and 31 years ranged from 1.5% among males in the lowest quartile of polygenic liability with 0 events by age 15, to 18.8% among females in the highest quartile of polygenic liability with 4+ events by age 15.
Conclusions
These findings suggest that although there is minimal interaction between polygenic liability and SLEs as risk factors for hospital-treated depression, combining information on these two important risk factors could potentially be useful for identifying high-risk individuals.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) led to a significant disease burden and disruptions in health systems. We describe the epidemiology and transmission characteristics of early coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Bavaria, Germany. Cases were reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections, reported from 20 January−19 March 2020. The incubation period was estimated using travel history and date of symptom onset. To estimate the serial interval, we identified pairs of index and secondary cases. By 19 March, 3546 cases were reported. A large proportion was exposed abroad (38%), causing further local transmission. Median incubation period of 256 cases with exposure abroad was 3.8 days (95%CI: 3.5–4.2). For 95% of infected individuals, symptom onset occurred within 10.3 days (95%CI: 9.1–11.8) after exposure. The median serial interval, using 53 pairs, was 3.5 days (95%CI: 3.0–4.2; mean: 3.9, s.d.: 2.2). Travellers returning to Germany had an important influence on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Bavaria in early 2020. Especially in times of low incidence, public health agencies should identify holiday destinations, and areas with ongoing local transmission, to monitor potential importation of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Travellers returning from areas with ongoing community transmission should be advised to quarantine to prevent re-introductions of COVID-19.
COVID-19, although a respiratory illness, has been clinically associated with non-respiratory symptoms. We conducted a negative case–control study to identify the symptoms associated with SARS-CoV-2-positive results in Portugal. Twelve symptoms and signs included in the clinical notification of COVID-19 were selected as predictors, and the dependent variable was the RT-PCR test result. The χ2 tests were used to compare notified cases on sex, age group, health region and presence of comorbidities. The best-fit prediction model was selected using a backward stepwise method with an unconditional logistic regression. General and gastrointestinal symptoms were strongly associated with a positive test (P < 0.001). In this sense, the inclusion of general symptoms such as myalgia, headache and fatigue, as well as diarrhoea, together with actual clinical criteria for suspected cases, already updated and included in COVID-19 case definition, can lead to increased identification of cases and represent an effective strength for transmission control.