Our limited knowledge of the climate prevailing over Europe during former glaciations is the main obstacle to reconstruct the past evolution of the ice coverage over the Alps by numerical modelling. To address this challenge, we perform a two-step modelling approach: First, a regional climate model is used to downscale the time slice simulations of a global earth system model in high resolution, leading to climate snapshots during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Marine Isotope Stage 4 (MIS4). Second, we combine these snapshots and a climate signal proxy to build a transient climate over the last glacial period and force the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to simulate the dynamical evolution of glaciers in the Alps. The results show that the extent of modelled glaciers during the LGM agrees with several independent key geological imprints, including moraine-based maximal reconstructed glacial extents, known ice transfluences and trajectories of erratic boulders of known origin and deposition. Our results highlight the benefit of multiphysical coupled climate and glacier transient modelling over simpler approaches to help reconstruct paleo glacier fluctuations in agreement with traces they have left on the landscape.

According to geographic information system-based modelling, the Muragl glacier forefield situated in the St Moritz area, eastern Swiss Alps, lies in a potential permafrost area. As an attempt to verify spatial modelling, BTS (bottom temperature of the winter snow cover) measurements, geoelectrical soundings and geomorphological mapping were carried out in order to investigate the present-day permafrost and ground-ice distribution in this forefield. Recent geomorphodynamic processes in the steep upper slopes of the cirque include small debris flows and several slides related to the occurrence of ground ice. The occurrence of fluted moraines and a well-developed push moraine provides geomorphological evidence for a complex thermal regime of the former Muragl glacier, with cold marginal parts frozen to the bed, and warm-based ice in more central parts where fluted moraines could develop. Details of the inferred glacier/permafrost interaction are difficult to interpret. The results of field measurements (BTS and geoelectrical soundings) in the recently deglaciated forefield indicate the local occurrence of permafrost in the forefield and in the push moraine. In most parts of the forefield, permafrost may be assumed to be a former subglacial occurrence. However, new permafrost formation in the recently deglaciated forefield cannot be excluded.

As a consequence of ongoing atmospheric temperature rise, tropical glaciers belong to the unique and threatened ecosystems on Earth, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Houghton and others, 2001). Worldwide glacier monitoring, especially as part of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), includes the systematic collection of data on such perennial surface ice masses. Several peaks in the sierras of Colombia have lost their glacier cover during recent decades. Today, high-altitude glaciers still exist in Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, in Sierra Nevada del Cocuy and on the volcanoes of Nevados del Ruiz, de Santa Isabel, del Tolima and del Huila. Comparison of reconstructions of maximum glacier area extent during the Little Ice Age with more recent information from aerial photographs and satellite images clearly documents a fast-shrinking tendency and potential disappearance of the remaining glaciers within the next few decades. In the past 50 years, Colombian glaciers have lost 5 0% or more of their area. Glacier shrinkage has continued to be strong in the last 15 years, with a loss of 10−50% of the glacier area. The relationship between fast glacier retreat and local, regional and global climate change is now being investigated. Preliminary analyses indicate that the temperature rise of roughly 1°C in the last 30 years recorded at high-altitude meteorological stations exerts a primary control on glacier retreat. The investigations on the Colombian glaciers thus corroborate earlier findings concerning the high sensitivity of glaciers in the wet inner tropics to temperature rise. To improve understanding of fast glacier retreat in Colombia, a modern monitoring network has been established according to the multilevel strategy of the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G) within GCOS. The observations are also contributions to continued assessments of hazards from the glacier-covered volcanoes and to integrated global change research in mountain biosphere reserves.

The internationally recommended multi-level strategy for monitoring mountain glaciers is illustrated using the example of the European Alps, where especially dense information has been available through historical times. This strategy combines in situ measurements (mass balance, length change) with remote sensing (inventories) and numerical modelling. It helps to bridge the gap between detailed local process-oriented studies and global coverage. Since the 1980s, mass balances have become increasingly negative, with values close to –1mw.e. a–1 during the first 5 years of the 21st century. The hot, dry summer of 2003 alone caused a record mean loss of 2.45 mw.e., roughly 50% above the previous record loss in 1998, more than three times the average between 1980 and 2000 and an order of magnitude more than characteristic long-term averages since the end of the Little Ice Age and other extended periods of glacier shrinkage during the past 2000 years. It can be estimated that glaciers in the European Alps lost about half their total volume (roughly 0.5% a–1) between 1850 and around 1975, another 25% (or 1%a–1) of the remaining amount between 1975 and 2000, and an additional 10–15% (or 2–3% a–1) in the first 5 years of this century.

A new Swiss glacier inventory is to be compiled from satellite data for the year 2000. The study presented here describes two major tasks: an accuracy assessment of different methods for glacier classification with Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data and a digital elevation model (DEM); the geographical information system (GIS)-based methods for automatic extraction of individual glaciers from classified satellite data and the computation of three-dimensional glacier parameters (such as minimum, maximum and median elevation or slope and orientation) by fusion with a DEM. First results obtained by these methods are presented in Part II of this paper (Kääb and others, 2002). Thresholding of a ratio image from TM4 and TM5 reveals the best-suited glacier map. The computation of glacier parameters in a GIS environment is efficient and suitable for worldwide application. The methods developed contribute to the U. S. Geological Survey-led Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) project which is currently compiling a global inventory of land ice masses within the framework of global glacier monitoring (Haeberli and others, 2000).

Complete Swiss glacier inventories are available for 1850 (reconstructed) and 1973 (from aerial photography). Connected to the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space project, a new Swiss glacier inventory for approximately the year 2000 (SGI 2000) is compiled mainly based on satellite imagery. The developed and applied remotesensing and geographical information system (GIS) methods are described in part I of the contribution. In part II, the inventory design, first-result analyses and comparisons with former glacial conditions are presented. As basic entries SGI 2000 contains the individual glacier identification, planimetric glacier boundaries as derived from image analysis, digitized central flowlines and polygonal glacier basin maps. All other parameters are automatically deduced from the above entries and a digital elevation model within a GIS. Here, we analyze a set of small Bernese and Valais glaciers of area <10 km2. These glaciers lost about 21% of area from 1973 to 1998, in addition to about 80% during 1850–1973, both with respect to the 1973 area. In order to track the latest trend in more detail, anintermediate glacier condition has been compiled from satellite imagery of 1985. This analysis gave an increasing speed of area loss (19%) for 1985–98.

Modern concepts of worldwide glacier monitoring include numerical models for (1) interconnecting the different levels of observations (local mass balance, representative length change, glacier inventories for global coverage) and (2) extrapolations in space (coupling with climate models) and time (backward and forward). In this context, one important new tool is distributed mass-balance modelling in complex mountain topography. This approach builds on simplified energy-balance models and can be applied for investigating the spatio-temporal representativity of the few mass-balance measurements, for estimating balance values at the tongue of unmeasured glaciers in order to derive long-term average balance values from a great number of glaciers with known length change, and for assessing special effects such as the influence of Sahara dust falls on the albedo and mass balance or autocorrelation effects due to surface darkening of glaciers with strongly negative balances. Experience from first model runs in the Swiss Alps and from applications to the extreme conditions in summer 2003 provides evidence about the usefulness of this approach for glacier monitoring and analysis of glacier changes in high-mountain regions. The main difficulties concern the spatial variability of the input parameters (e.g. precipitation, snow cover and surface albedo) and the uncertainties in the parameterizations of the components of the energy balance. Field measurements remain essential to tie the models to real ground conditions.

The interaction of energy-exchange processes between the atmosphere and the Earth surface determines the surface temperature regime. It is of fundamental importance to the question whether frozen ground exists at a given site and how rapidly it may decay in response to a climatic perturbation. To further our understanding of these processes, measurements concerning near-surface energy-exchange processes were initiated in January 1997 on creeping permafrost at a high mountain site, Murtèl-Corvatsch, upper Engadin, Swiss Alps. Data on all important energy-balance fluxes were collected. In this paper, we present ground-temperature and energy-balance measurements from Murtèl-Corvatsch for a 2 year period, 1997–99. We will examine the relative importance of the energy-balance components and discuss special problems relating to the coarse surface layer. The results indicate a non-zero energy budget, with a positive deviation of up to 78 W m 4 in winter and a negative deviation of up to –130 W nT2 in summer. We propose that this overall imbalance of the energy-exchange fluxes, as well as the significant difference between mean annual surface and ground temperatures/can be explained by unmeasured advective energy fluxes that occur within the layer of large boulder blocks at the top of the permafrost.

The fluctuation of mountain glaciers is recognized as a high-confidence indicator of air-temperature trends and as a valuable element of a strategy for early detection of possible Man-induced climate changes. The Terrestrial Observation Panel for Climate therefore recommended that glacier mass and area be monitored as part of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) established in 1992 by the World Meteorological Organization, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, the United Nations Environment Programme and the International Council of Scientific Unions. A tiered Global Hierarchical Observing Strategy was developed to be used for all GCOS terrestrial variables. According to this system of tiers, the regional to global representativeness in space and time of the records relating to glacier mass and area should be assessed by more numerous observations of glacier length changes as well as by compilation of regional glacier inventories repeated at time intervals of a few decades, the typical dynamic response time of smaller mountain glaciers.

During the 1970s, Fritz Müller directed the Permanent Service on the Fluctuations of Glaciers and the Temporary Technical Secretariat for the World Glacier Inventory. These two bodies were combined in 1986 to form the World Glacier Monitoring Service, which is now responsible for internationally coordinated glacier monitoring, working in close collaboration with the World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder.

The occurrence of rocky and sedimentary glacier beds in the Swiss Alps was investigated using two approaches: (1) a detailed and systematic classification of glacier forefields in the completely revised Swiss glacier inventory; and (2) the application of an algorithm for estimating bed characteristics from glacier-inventory data. The algorithm is based on the assumption that the sediment balance of a glacierized catchment, i.e. the ratio between debris input from the surrounding rock walls and debris evacuation by the meltwater stream, determines the occurrence of rocky, sedimentary or mixed beds. The processes which govern the sediment balance within a glacierized catchment cannot be easily observed or measured in the field. However, the main factors reflecting them can be organized in the form of an erosion—sedimentation index. This index discriminates between glaciers eroding into bedrock and those building up thick sediment beds and, thus, allows for rough assessments concerning bed characteristics. Sedimentary and mixed sedimentary—rocky glacier beds clearly predominate in the Swiss Alps, but more detailed spatial analysis is required for better predictions.

Alpine permafrost distribution is controlled by a great number of climatic, topographic and soil-specific factors, including snow cover, which plays a major role. In this study, a one-dimensional finite-element numerical model was developed to analyze the influence of individual snow-specific and climatic factors on the ground thermal regime. The results indicate that the most important factor is snow depth. Snow depths below the threshold value of 0.6 m lack sufficient insulation to prevent low atmospheric temperatures from cooling the soil. The date of first winter snow insulation and variations in mean annual air temperature (MAAT) are also shown to be important. Delays in early-winter snow insulation and in summer snow disappearance are shown to be of approximately equal significance to the ground thermal conditions. Numerical modelling also indicates that the duration of effective thermal resistance of snow cover governs the slope of the linear dependency between MAAT and mean annual ground surface temperatures (MAGST). Consequently, the most direct effect of a long-term rise in air temperatures on ground temperatures is predicted under a thin snow cover with early snowmelt in spring and/or where a large change in the date of total snowmelt occurs, in response to atmospheric warming.

An overview is given of the relatively short history, important issues and primary challenges of research on permafrost in cold mountain regions. The systematic application of diverse approaches and technologies contributes to a rapidly growing knowledge base about the existence, characteristics and evolution in time of perennially frozen ground at high altitudes and on steep slopes. These approaches and technologies include (1) drilling, borehole measurement, geophysical sounding, photogrammetry, laser altimetry, GPS/SAR surveying, and miniature temperature data logging in remote areas that are often difficult to access, (2) laboratory investigations (e.g. rheology and stability of ice-rock mixtures), (3) analyses of digital terrain information, (4) numerical simulations (e.g. subsurface thermal conditions under complex topography) and (5) spatial models (e.g. distribution of permafrost where surface and microclimatic conditions are highly variable spatially). A sound knowledge base and improved understanding of governing processes are urgently needed to deal effectively with the consequences of climate change on the evolution of mountain landscapes and, especially, of steep mountain slope hazards as the stabilizing permafrost warms and degrades. Interactions between glaciers and permafrost in cold mountain regions have so far received comparatively little attention and need more systematic investigation.

Glacier mass-balance parameters such as the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) play an important role when working with large glacier samples. While the number of observational mass-balance series to derive such parameters is limited, more and more modeled data are becoming available.Here we explore the possibilities of analyzing such 'synthetic' mass-balance data with respect to mass-balance parameters. A simplified energy-balance model is driven by bias-corrected regional climate model output to model mass-balance distributions for 94 glaciers in the Swiss Alps over 15 years. The modeling results in realistic interannual variability and mean cumulative mass balance. Subsequently model output is analyzed with respect to 18 topographic and mass-balance parameters and a correlation analysis is performed. Well-known correlations such as for ELA and median elevation are confirmed from the synthetic data. Furthermore, previously unreported parameter relationships are found such as a correlation of the balance rate at the tongue with the accumulation-area ratio (AAR) and of the glacier elevation range with the AAR. Analyzing modeled data complements in situ observations and highlights their importance: the small number of accurate mass-balance observations available for validation is a major challenge for the presented approach.

Long-term ice-core records of Alpine glaciers are usually taken from cold-firn areas at high altitudes, as on Mont Blanc and Monte Rosa. Perennial ice bodies at lower altitudes, however, also bear information about the past. Recent findings from the remains of such ice (the Oetztal iceman found in Austria; wooden bows at Lötschen Pass, Switzerland) clearly indicate the hitherto little-recognized fact that small, more-or-less static perennial ice bodies which are cold and frozen to the underlying bedrock may contain very old ice and, hence, important palaeoclimatic information about warm periods with minimum ice extent in the Alps. Since autumn 1998, investigations have been initiated on a crest-type location or “miniature ice cap” at Piz Murtèl, Engadine, Swiss Alps. First results from shallow drilling, temperature data-logging, geodetic surveying, visual observation, finite-element modelling of simplified basic two-dimensional configurations and comparison to earlier measurements at similar sites provide promising perspectives concerning a little-studied phenomenon with considerable scientific-environmental research potential. Specific characteristics of the investigated site, and probably of many other comparable mountain sites, are: cold ice (about –4°C at 10 m depth), no basal sliding, small mass turnover, striking lack of a firn zone, accumulation mainly by superimposed ice, and direct access to old layers (centuries, millennia?) at the ice/bedrock interface.

On 20 September 2002, an enormous rock/ice slide and subsequent mud-flow occurred on the northern slope of the Kazbek massif, Northern Ossetia, Russian Caucasus. It started on the north- northeast wall of Dzhimarai-Khokh (4780 ma.s.l.) and seriously affected the valley of Genaldon/ Karmadon. Immediate governmental actions, available scientific information, first reconstructions, hazard assessments and monitoring activities as well as initial expert judgments/recommendations are documented in order to enable more detailed analyses and modelling of the event by the wider scientific community. Among the most remarkable aspects related to this event are (1) the relation between the recent event and somewhat smaller but quite similar events that occurred earlier in historical times (1835, 1902), (2) the interactions between unstable local geological structures and complex geothermal and hydraulic conditions in the starting zone with permafrost, cold to polythermal hanging glaciers and volcanic effects (hot springs) in close contact with each other, (3) the erosion and incorporation of a debris-covered valley glacier largely enhancing the sliding volume of rocks, ice, firn, snow, water and probably air to a total of about 100 × 106m3, and (4) the astonishingly high flow velocities (up to 300 km h-1) and enormous length of travel path (18 km plus 15 km of debris/mud-flow). This extraordinary case illustrates that large catastrophic events in high mountain regions typically involve a multitude of factors and require integrated consideration of complex chains of processes, a task which must be undertaken by qualified groups of experts.

Flood and debris-flow hazards at Grubengletscher near Saas Balen in the Saas Valley, Valais, Swiss Alps, result from the formation and growth of several lakes at the glacier margin and within the surrounding permafrost. In order to prevent damage related to such hazards, systematic investigations were carried out and practical measures taken. The evolution of the polythermal glacier, the creeping permafrost within the large adjacent rock glacier and the development of the various periglacial lakes were monitored and documented for the last 25 years by photogrammetric analysis of annually flown high-resolution aerial photographs. Seismic refraction, d.c. resistivity and gravimetry soundings were performed together with hydrological tracer experiments to determine the structure and stability of a moraine dam at a proglacial lake. The results indicate a maximum moraine thickness of > 100 m; extremely high porosity and even ground caverns near the surface may have resulted from degradation of sub- and periglacial permafrost following 19th/20th-century retreat of the partially cold glacier tongue. The safety and retention capacity of the proglacial lake were enhanced by deepening and reinforcing the outlet structure on top of the moraine complex. The water level of an ice-dammed lake was lowered and a thermokarst lake artficially drained.

The thermal regime of high-altitude accumulation areas in the Swiss Alps was systematically investigated on the Jungfraufirn, Bernese Alps, on the Breithornplateau, Valais Alps, and on Grenzgletscher, Valais Alps. In 1991, 1992 and 1994, temperatures were measured in a deep hole (120 m deep) and in several shallow holes (14–30 m deep). Whereas the wide névé of the Jungfraufirn at 3400–3600 m a.s.l. and the 3800 m high Breithornplateau seems to be predominantly temperate, cold firn and ice temperatures were measured throughout on Grenzgletscher (3900–4450 m a.s.l.). Mean firn temperatures on Grenzgletscher vary strongly and range between −3° and −14°C. A comparison between the measured temperature profiles and a one-dimensional heat-conduction calculation shows that the release of latent heat by penetrating and refreezing meltwater decisively influences the thermal pattern of the firn pack. A multiple linear regression model, based on measured firn temperatures from the European Alps and the parameters altitude and aspect, yields aspect-dependent lower boundaries for the occurrence of cold firn ranging between 3400 (northerly aspects) and 4150 m a.s.l. (southerly aspects). A total of 120 glaciers with cold-firn areas are found when applying the model to glacier inventory data from the European Alps.

Ongoing atmospheric warming causes rapid shrinking of glaciers in the European Alps, with a high chance of their near-complete disappearance by the end of the 21st century. Here we present a comparison of three independent approaches to model the possible evolution of the glaciers in the Swiss Alps over the 21st century. The models have different levels of complexity, work at a regional scale and are forced with three scenarios of temperature increase (low, moderate, high). The moderate climate scenario gives an increase in air temperature of ∼2°C and ∼4°C for the two scenario periods 2021-50 and 2070-99, respectively, resulting in an area loss of 60-80% by 2100. In reality, the shrinkage could be even faster, as the observed mean annual thickness loss is already stronger than the modelled one. The three approaches lead to rather similar results with respect to the overall long-term evolution. The choice of climate scenarios produces the largest spread (∼40%) in the final area loss, while the uncertainty in present-day ice-thickness estimation causes about half this spread.

Observations show that glaciers around the world are in retreat and losing mass. Internationally coordinated for over a century, glacier monitoring activities provide an unprecedented dataset of glacier observations from ground, air and space. Glacier studies generally select specific parts of these datasets to obtain optimal assessments of the mass-balance data relating to the impact that glaciers exercise on global sea-level fluctuations or on regional runoff. In this study we provide an overview and analysis of the main observational datasets compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). The dataset on glacier front variations (∼42 000 since 1600) delivers clear evidence that centennial glacier retreat is a global phenomenon. Intermittent readvance periods at regional and decadal scale are normally restricted to a subsample of glaciers and have not come close to achieving the maximum positions of the Little Ice Age (or Holocene). Glaciological and geodetic observations (∼5200 since 1850) show that the rates of early 21st-century mass loss are without precedent on a global scale, at least for the time period observed and probably also for recorded history, as indicated also in reconstructions from written and illustrated documents. This strong imbalance implies that glaciers in many regions will very likely suffer further ice loss, even if climate remains stable.