Enteric commensal bacteria of food animals may serve as a reservoir of genes encoding antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The genes are often plasmidic. Different aspects of bacterial ecology can be targeted by interventions to control plasmid-mediated AMR. The field efficacy of interventions remains unclear. We developed a deterministic mathematical model of commensal Escherichia coli in its animate and non-animate habitats within a beef feedlot's pen, with some E. coli having plasmid-mediated resistance to the cephalosporin ceftiofur. We evaluated relative potential efficacy of within- or outside-host biological interventions delivered throughout rearing depending on the targeted parameter of bacterial ecology. Most instrumental in reducing the fraction of resistant enteric E. coli at steer slaughter age were interventions acting on the enteric E. coli and capable of either ‘plasmid curing’ E. coli, or lowering maximum E. coli numbers or the rate of plasmid transfer in this habitat. Also efficient was to increase the regular replacement of enteric E. coli. Lowering replication rate of resistant E. coli alone was not an efficient intervention target.

The incidence of myocardial infarctions and influenza follow similar seasonal patterns. To determine if acute myocardial infarctions (AMIs) and ischaemic strokes are associated with influenza activity, we built time-series models using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. In these models, we used influenza activity to predict the incidence of AMI and ischaemic stroke. We fitted national models as well as models based on four geographical regions and five age groups. Across all models, we found consistent significant associations between AMIs and influenza activity, but not between ischaemic strokes and influenza. Associations between influenza and AMI increased with age, were greatest in those aged >80 years, and were present in all geographical regions. In addition, the natural experiment provided by the second wave of the influenza pandemic in 2009 provided further evidence of the relationship between influenza and AMI, because both series peaked in the same non-winter month.

A total of 755 highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)-naive HIV-infected patients were enrolled at a government hospital in Thailand from 1 June 2000 to 15 October 2002. Census date of survival was on 31 October 2004 or the date of HAART initiation. Of 700 (92·6%) patients with complete data, the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen and anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody positivity was 11·9% and 3·3%, respectively. Eight (9·6%) HBV co-infected patients did not have anti-HBV core antibody (anti-HBcAb). During 1166·7 person-years of observation (pyo), 258 (36·9%) patients died [22·1/100 pyo, 95% confidence interval (CI) 16·7–27·8]. HBV and probably HCV co-infection was associated with a higher mortality with adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of 1·81 (95% CI 1·30–2·53) and 1·90 (95% CI 0·98–3·69), respectively. Interestingly, HBV co-infection without anti-HBc Ab was strongly associated with death (aHR 6·34, 95% CI 3·99–10·3). The influence of hepatitis co-infection on the natural history of HAART-naive HIV patients requires greater attention.

By building reconstruction models for a case of gastroenteritis in the general population moving through different steps of the surveillance pyramid we estimated that millions of illnesses occur annually in the European population, leading to thousands of hospitalizations. We used data on the healthcare system in seven European Union member states in relation to pathogen characteristics that influence healthcare seeking. Data on healthcare usage were obtained by harmonized cross-sectional surveys. The degree of under-diagnosis and underreporting varied by pathogen and country. Overall, underreporting and under-diagnosis were estimated to be lowest for Germany and Sweden, followed by Denmark, The Netherlands, UK, Italy and Poland. Across all countries, the incidence rate was highest for Campylobacter spp. and Salmonella spp. Incidence estimates resulting from the pyramid reconstruction approach are adjusted for biases due to different surveillance systems and are therefore a better basis for international comparisons than reported data.

In 2010, 7/44 (16%) reported foodborne outbreaks in Finland were linked with raw beetroot consumption. We reviewed data from the national outbreak registry in order to hypothesize the aetiology of illness and to prevent further outbreaks. In the seven outbreaks, 124 cases among 623 respondents were identified. Consumption of raw beetroot was strongly associated with gastrointestinal illness (relative risk 8·99, 95% confidence interval 6·06–13·35). The illness was characterized by sudden onset of gastrointestinal symptoms; the median incubation time was 40 min and duration of illness 5 h. No common foodborne pathogens or toxins were found in either clinical or beetroot samples, but all tested beetroot samples were of poor quality according to total bacterial counts. Beta-haemolytic Pseudomonas fluorescens was detected in several beetroot samples but its effect on human health is unknown. No outbreaks were reported after the Finnish Food Safety Authority Evira advised against serving raw beetroot in institutional canteens.

There are very few data on the prevalence of coccidian enteric parasites among low-income adults hospitalized in Chennai, India. Stool samples from 200 patients were screened for selected parasites, enteric bacterial pathogens, and other protozoa over a 3-month period. The study identified 42 (21%) Cryptosporidium, 36 (18%) V. cholerae, 17 (9%) Salmonellla, 12 (6%) Isospora, six (3%) helminths, five (3%) Shigella, one (1%) Cyclospora, one (1%) other protozoan, and 0% V. parahaemolyticus cases. Co-infection was present in 21 patients. Cryptosporidium was detected in 17 (81%) of co-infected patients. Our findings highlighted the relatively high proportion of patients in this population with Cryptosporidium and Isospora and suggest that further study be undertaken to determine the utility of broader use of diagnostic testing for coccidian parasites in India. Detection may be beneficial because isosporiasis is treatable and both Isospora and Cryptosporidium are important pathogens in AIDS patients.

In 2008, nationwide investigations of a Salmonella serotype Saintpaul outbreak led first to consumer warnings for Roma and red round tomatoes, then later for jalapeño and serrano peppers. In New Mexico, where there were a large number of cases but no restaurant-based clusters, the NM Department of Health and the Indian Health Service participated with CDC in individual-level and household-level case-control studies of infections in New Mexico and the Navajo Nation. No food item was associated in the individual-level study. In the household-level study, households with an ill member were more likely to have had jalapeño peppers present during the exposure period and to have reported ever having serrano peppers in the household. This report illustrates the complexity of this investigation, the limitations of traditional individual-level case-control studies when vehicles of infection are ingredients or commonly eaten with other foods, and the added value of a household-level study.

In order to identify and assess recent risk factors for sporadic human infections with Salmonella enterica, we conducted a case-control study in Lower Saxony, Germany. The data collection was based on standardized telephone interviews with 1017 cases and 346 controls aged >14 years. Odds ratios were calculated in single-factor and multi-factor analyses for Salmonella cases and two different control groups, i.e. population controls and controls with rotavirus infection. Multi-factor analysis revealed associations between sporadic Salmonella infections for two exposures by both sets of controls: consumption of raw ground pork [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2·38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·27–4·44] and foreign travel (aOR 2·12, 95% CI 1·00–4·52). Other exposures included consumption of food items containing eggs (aOR 1·43, 95% CI 0·80–2·54), consumption of chicken meat (aOR 1·77, 95% CI 1·26–2·50), outdoor meals/barbecues (aOR 3·96, 95% CI 1·41–11·12) and taking gastric acidity inhibitors (aOR 2·42, 95% CI 1·19–4·92), all were significantly associated with respect to one of the two control groups. The impact of consuming food items containing eggs or chicken meat was lower than expected from the literature. This might be a consequence of Salmonella control programmes as well as increased public awareness of eggs and chicken products being a risk factor for salmonellosis. Efforts to reduce Salmonella infections due to raw pork products should be intensified.

We describe the largest outbreak of measles in Central and Eastern Cheshire (North West England) since the MMR vaccine was introduced in 1988, the majority of cases were not vaccinated and more than 20% of the cases belonged to the travelling community. Over 4 months, 147 clinical cases of measles were notified locally to the Cheshire & Merseyside Health Protection Unit (CMHPU). Of these, 67 (45·6%) were laboratory confirmed, 42 (28·6%) were negative, and one was equivocal, leaving 23 probable and 14 possible cases. The primary case was probably an 8-year-old unvaccinated travelling child, symptomatic on 1 October 2008. Measles spread locally and within school-aged children until early February 2009. Most of Central and Eastern Cheshire, including 23 educational institutions (playgroups, nurseries, primary schools, secondary schools, colleges), were affected, showing that there were enough susceptible/unvaccinated children to sustain an outbreak. Nearly a quarter of the confirmed cases (15/67, 22·4%) were aged <13 months and too young to be vaccinated under the UK immunization schedule. This outbreak is a reminder of the importance of achieving herd immunity to prevent spread and protect those at risk of severe illness or complications. There were no fatalities in this outbreak and no significant complications were reported.

We compared Campylobacter jejuni/coli multilocus sequence types (STs) from pets (dogs/cats) and their owners and investigated risk factors for pet-associated human campylobacteriosis using a combined source-attribution and case-control analysis. In total, 132/687 pet stools were Campylobacter-positive, resulting in 499 strains isolated (320 C. upsaliensis/helveticus, 100 C. jejuni, 33 C. hyointestinalis/fetus, 10 C. lari, 4 C. coli, 32 unidentified). There were 737 human and 104 pet C. jejuni/coli strains assigned to 154 and 49 STs, respectively. Dog, particularly puppy, owners were at increased risk of infection with pet-associated STs. In 2/68 cases vs. 0·134/68 expected by chance, a pet and its owner were infected with an identical ST (ST45, ST658). Although common sources of infection and directionality of transmission between pets and humans were unknown, dog ownership significantly increased the risk for pet-associated human C. jejuni/coli infection and isolation of identical strains in humans and their pets occurred significantly more often than expected.

Large outbreaks of Q fever in The Netherlands have provided a unique opportunity for studying longitudinal serum antibody responses in patients. Results are presented of a cohort of 344 patients with acute symptoms of Q fever with three or more serum samples per patient. In all these serum samples IgM and IgG against phase 1 and 2 Coxiella burnetii were measured by an immunofluorescence assay. A mathematical model of the dynamic interaction of serum antibodies and pathogens was used in a mixed model framework to quantitatively analyse responses to C. burnetii infection. Responses show strong heterogeneity, with individual serum antibody responses widely different in magnitude and shape. Features of the response, peak titre and decay rate, are used to characterize the diversity of the observed responses. Binary mixture analysis of IgG peak levels (phases 1 and 2) reveals a class of patients with high IgG peak titres that decay slowly and may represent potential chronic cases. When combining the results of mixture analysis into an odds score, it is concluded that not only high IgG phase 1 may be predictive for chronic Q fever, but also that high IgG phase 2 may aid in detecting such putative chronic cases.

It is difficult to assess the mortality burden of influenza epidemics in tropical countries. Until recently, the burden of influenza was believed to be negligible in Africa. We assessed the impact of the 2009 influenza epidemic on mortality in Madagascar by conducting Poisson regression analysis on mortality data from the deaths registry, after the first wave of the 2009 A(H1N1) virus pandemic. There were 20% more human deaths than expected in Antananarivo, Madagascar in November 2009, with excess mortality in the ⩾50 years age group (relative risk 1·41). Furthermore, the number of deaths from pulmonary disease was significantly higher than the number of deaths from other causes during this pandemic period. These results suggest that the A(H1N1) 2009 virus pandemic may have been accompanied by an increase in mortality.

Readmission of asymptomatic methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) carriers may contribute to the hospital reservoir. Using an electronic alert system, we assessed the weight of readmission of known MRSA carriers on MRSA colonization pressure in a hospital setting. During the 2004–2010 period, 2058 alerts were generated for 1060 inpatients. A total of 486/1060 patients (46%) were readmitted at least once, and 330/486 (64·4%) were readmitted <3 months after discharge. A mean of 20 MRSA patients were present on the same day (from 40 in 2004 to eight in 2010). The number of MRSA patient-days was 34 575, i.e. 2·5% of the 1 366 277 patient-days of the study period, and 17 737 (51·3%) MRSA patient-days were due to readmission of known MRSA carriers. The number of new MRSA cases was partly correlated with the number of MRSA patients hospitalized (R2 = 0·49). Rapid electronic identification of these patients proved essential in decreasing the global burden of MRSA in our hospital.

Sentinel species are increasingly used by disease managers to detect and monitor the prevalence of zoonotic diseases in wildlife populations. Characterizing home-range movements of sentinel hosts is thus important for developing improved disease surveillance methods, especially in systems where multiple host species co-exist. We studied ranging activity of major hosts of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in an upland habitat of New Zealand: we compared home-range coverage by ferrets (Mustela furo), wild deer (Cervus elaphus), feral pigs (Sus scrofa), brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) and free-ranging farmed cattle (Bos taurus). We also report in detail the proportional utilization of a seasonal (4-monthly) range area for the latter four species. Possums covered the smallest home range (<30 ha), ferrets covered ∼100 ha, pigs ∼4 km2, deer and cattle both >30 km2. For any given weekly period, cattle, deer and pigs were shown to utilize 37–45% of their estimated 4-month range, while possums utilized 62% during any weekly period and 85% during any monthly period of their estimated 4-month range. We suggest that present means for estimating TB detection kernels, based on long-term range size estimates for possums and sentinel species, probably overstate the true local surveillance coverage per individual.

West Nile virus (WNV) strains belonging to lineage 2 were detected and isolated from the tissues of a goshawk and two carrion crows in Sardinia in August 2012. According to NS3 sequence analysis, the Sardinian isolates shared a high level of similarity with those of Italian lineage 2 strains which circulated in 2011 and with the homologous sequence of the 2004 Hungarian isolate. Following the human fatality reported in 2011 in Olbia, this study is the first to report the spread and enzootic circulation of WNV lineage 2 in Sardinia.

The aim of this study was to evaluate potential sampling strategies for detection of infected flocks that could be applied during an outbreak of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza (LPNAI) initiated in duck holdings, following initial detection. A simulation model of avian influenza virus transmission and spread within and between holdings, respectively, was used to predict the impact on the size and duration of an outbreak of (i) changing the tracing window within which premises that might be the source of infection or that may have been infected by the index premises were sampled and (ii) changing the number of birds sampled in the flock being tested. It has shown that there is potential benefit in increasing the tracing window in terms of reducing the likelihood of a large outbreak. It has also shown that there is comparatively little benefit from increasing the number of birds sampled per flock.

Mosquito-borne Sindbis virus (SINV) causes rash-arthritis syndrome in Finland. Major outbreaks with approximately 7-year cycles have caused substantial burden of illness. Forest dwelling grouse are suspected to be amplifying hosts, with the infection transmitted to humans by mosquito bites. SINV infection surveillance data for 1984–2010 were used to create a negative binomial hurdle model, with seasonality, long-term cycles, climatic, ecological and socioeconomic variables. Climatic factors during early summer and amount of snow in April described the occurrence and incidence of SINV infections. Regulated water shore and hatch-year black grouse density described the occurrence, while population working in agriculture, agricultural land (negative) and income (negative) described the incidence of the disease. The prediction for 2009 was 85 cases (95% prediction interval 2-1187), while the actual occurrence was 106. We identified novel and known risk factors. The prevention of SINV infections in regulated water areas by infected mosquito populations should be targeted.

Tuberculosis (TB) in livestock, caused by Mycobacterium bovis, persists in many countries. In the UK and Ireland, efforts to control TB through culling of badgers (Meles meles), the principal wildlife host, have failed and there is significant interest in vaccination of badgers as an alternative or complementary strategy. Using a simulation model, we show that where TB is self-contained within the badger population and there are no external sources of infection, limited-duration vaccination at a high level of efficacy can reduce or even eradicate TB from the badger population. However, where sources of external infection persist, benefits in TB reduction in badgers can only be achieved by ongoing, annual vaccination. Vaccination is likely to be most effective as part of an integrated disease management strategy incorporating a number of different approaches across the entire host community.

We estimated the true incidence of campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis in the European Union (EU) in 2009. The estimate was based on disease risks of returning Swedish travellers, averaged over the years 2005–2009, and anchored to a Dutch population-based study on incidence and aetiology of gastroenteritis. For the 27 EU member states the incidence of campylobacteriosis was about 9·2 (95% CI 2·8–23) million cases, while the incidence of salmonellosis was 6·2 (95% CI 1·0–19) million cases. Only 1/47 (95% CI 14–117) cases of campylobacteriosis and one 1/58 (95% CI 9–172) cases of salmonellosis were reported in the EU. The incidence rate of campylobacteriosis in EU member states varied between 30 and 13 500/100 000 population and was significantly correlated with the prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in broiler chickens. The incidence rate of salmonellosis in EU member states varied between 16 and 11 800/100 000 population and was significantly correlated with the prevalence of Salmonella Enteritidis in laying hens.