We provide the first examination of all-pay auctions using continuous-time protocols, allowing subjects to adjust their bid at will, observe payoffs almost instantaneously, and gain more experience through repeated-play than in previous, discrete-time, implementations. Unlike our predecessors—who generally find overbidding—we observe underbidding relative to Nash equilibrium. To test the predictions of evolutionary models, we vary the number of bidders and prizes across treatments. If two bidders compete for a single prize, evolutionary models predict convergence to equilibrium. If three bidders compete for two prizes, evolutionary models predict non-convergent cyclical behavior. Consistent with evolutionary predictions, we observe cyclical behavior in both auctions and greater instability in two-prize auctions. These results suggest that evolutionary models can provide practitioners in the field with additional information about long-run aggregate behavior that is absent from conventional models.

This study examined relationships between foodborne outbreak investigation characteristics, such as the epidemiological methods used, and the success of the investigation, as determined by whether the investigation identified an outbreak agent (i.e. pathogen), food item and contributing factor. This study used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) National Outbreak Reporting System and National Environmental Assessment Reporting System to identify outbreak investigation characteristics associated with outbreak investigation success. We identified investigation characteristics that increase the probability of successful outbreak investigations: a rigorous epidemiology investigation method; a thorough environmental assessment, as measured by number of visits to complete the assessment; and the collection of clinical samples. This research highlights the importance of a comprehensive outbreak investigation, which includes epidemiology, environmental health and laboratory personnel working together to solve the outbreak.

Terracing is found widely in the Mediterranean and in other hilly and mountainous regions of the world. Yet while archaeological attention to these ‘mundane’ landscape features has grown, they remain understudied, particularly in Northern Europe. Here, the authors present a multidisciplinary study of terraces in the Breamish Valley, Northumberland. The results date their construction to the Early to Middle Bronze Age, when they were built by cutting back the hillside, stone clearance and wall construction. Environmental evidence points to their use for cereal cultivation. The authors suggest that the construction and use of these terraces formed part of an Early to Middle Bronze Age agricultural intensification, which may have been both demographically and culturally driven.

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Health Organization stressed the importance of daily clinical assessments of infected patients, yet current approaches frequently consider cross-sectional timepoints, cumulative summary measures, or time-to-event analyses. Statistical methods are available that make use of the rich information content of longitudinal assessments. We demonstrate the use of a multistate transition model to assess the dynamic nature of COVID-19-associated critical illness using daily evaluations of COVID-19 patients from 9 academic hospitals. We describe the accessibility and utility of methods that consider the clinical trajectory of critically ill COVID-19 patients.

We present a detailed overview of the cosmological surveys that we aim to carry out with Phase 1 of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA1) and the science that they will enable. We highlight three main surveys: a medium-deep continuum weak lensing and low-redshift spectroscopic HI galaxy survey over 5 000 deg2; a wide and deep continuum galaxy and HI intensity mapping (IM) survey over 20 000 deg2 from $z = 0.35$ to 3; and a deep, high-redshift HI IM survey over 100 deg2 from $z = 3$ to 6. Taken together, these surveys will achieve an array of important scientific goals: measuring the equation of state of dark energy out to $z \sim 3$ with percent-level precision measurements of the cosmic expansion rate; constraining possible deviations from General Relativity on cosmological scales by measuring the growth rate of structure through multiple independent methods; mapping the structure of the Universe on the largest accessible scales, thus constraining fundamental properties such as isotropy, homogeneity, and non-Gaussianity; and measuring the HI density and bias out to $z = 6$ . These surveys will also provide highly complementary clustering and weak lensing measurements that have independent systematic uncertainties to those of optical and near-infrared (NIR) surveys like Euclid, LSST, and WFIRST leading to a multitude of synergies that can improve constraints significantly beyond what optical or radio surveys can achieve on their own. This document, the 2018 Red Book, provides reference technical specifications, cosmological parameter forecasts, and an overview of relevant systematic effects for the three key surveys and will be regularly updated by the Cosmology Science Working Group in the run up to start of operations and the Key Science Programme of SKA1.

Six experiments were conducted in 2018 on field sites located in Arkansas, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Ontario, and Wisconsin to evaluate the off-target movement (OTM) of dicamba under field-scale conditions. The highest estimated percentages of dicamba injury in non–dicamba-resistant (DR) soybean were 55%, 44%, 39%, 67%, 15%, and 44% injury for noncovered areas and 55%, 5%, 13%, 42%, 0%, and 41% injury for covered areas during dicamba application in Arkansas, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Ontario, and Wisconsin, respectively. The level of injury generally decreased as the downwind distance increased under covered and noncovered areas at all sites. There was an estimated 10% injury in non-DR soybean at 113, 8, 11, 8, and 8 m; and estimated 1% injury at 293, 28, 71, 15, and 19 m from the edge of treated fields downwind when plants were not covered during dicamba application in Arkansas, Indiana, Michigan, Ontario, and Wisconsin, respectively. Assessment of filter-paper collectors placed from 4 to 137 m downwind from the edge of the sprayed area suggested the dicamba deposition reduced exponentially with distance. The greatest injury to non-DR soybean from dicamba OTM occurred at Nebraska and Arkansas (as far as 250 m). Non-DR soybean injury was greatest adjacent to the dicamba sprayed area, but injury decreased with no injury beyond 20 m downwind or in any other direction from the dicamba sprayed area in Indiana, Michigan, Ontario, and Wisconsin. The presence of soybean injury under covered and noncovered areas during the spray period for primary drift suggests that secondary movement of dicamba was evident at five sites. Additional research is needed to determine the exact forms of secondary movement of dicamba under different environmental conditions.

Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) infections remain highly prevalent. CT reinfection occurs frequently within months after treatment, likely contributing to sustaining the high CT infection prevalence. Sparse studies have suggested CT reinfection is associated with a lower organism load, but it is unclear whether CT load at the time of treatment influences CT reinfection risk. In this study, women presenting for treatment of a positive CT screening test were enrolled, treated and returned for 3- and 6-month follow-up visits. CT organism loads were quantified at each visit. We evaluated for an association of CT bacterial load at initial infection with reinfection risk and investigated factors influencing the CT load at baseline and follow-up in those with CT reinfection. We found no association of initial CT load with reinfection risk. We found a significant decrease in the median log10 CT load from baseline to follow-up in those with reinfection (5.6 CT/ml vs. 4.5 CT/ml; P = 0.015). Upon stratification of reinfected subjects based upon presence or absence of a history of CT infections prior to their infection at the baseline visit, we found a significant decline in the CT load from baseline to follow-up (5.7 CT/ml vs. 4.3 CT/ml; P = 0.021) exclusively in patients with a history of CT infections prior to our study. Our findings suggest repeated CT infections may lead to possible development of partial immunity against CT.

In North America, terrestrial records of biodiversity and climate change that span Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 are rare. Where found, they provide insight into how the coupling of the ocean–atmosphere system is manifested in biotic and environmental records and how the biosphere responds to climate change. In 2010–2011, construction at Ziegler Reservoir near Snowmass Village, Colorado (USA) revealed a nearly continuous, lacustrine/wetland sedimentary sequence that preserved evidence of past plant communities between ~140 and 55 ka, including all of MIS 5. At an elevation of 2705 m, the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site also contained thousands of well-preserved bones of late Pleistocene megafauna, including mastodons, mammoths, ground sloths, horses, camels, deer, bison, black bear, coyotes, and bighorn sheep. In addition, the site contained more than 26,000 bones from at least 30 species of small animals including salamanders, otters, muskrats, minks, rabbits, beavers, frogs, lizards, snakes, fish, and birds. The combination of macro- and micro-vertebrates, invertebrates, terrestrial and aquatic plant macrofossils, a detailed pollen record, and a robust, directly dated stratigraphic framework shows that high-elevation ecosystems in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado are climatically sensitive and varied dramatically throughout MIS 5.

The public health burden of alcohol is unevenly distributed across the life course, with levels of use, abuse, and dependence increasing across adolescence and peaking in early adulthood. Here, we leverage this temporal patterning to search for common genetic variants predicting developmental trajectories of alcohol consumption. Comparable psychiatric evaluations measuring alcohol consumption were collected in three longitudinal community samples (N = 2,126, obs = 12,166). Consumption-repeated measurements spanning adolescence and early adulthood were analyzed using linear mixed models, estimating individual consumption trajectories, which were then tested for association with Illumina 660W-Quad genotype data (866,099 SNPs after imputation and QC). Association results were combined across samples using standard meta-analysis methods. Four meta-analysis associations satisfied our pre-determined genome-wide significance criterion (FDR < 0.1) and six others met our ‘suggestive’ criterion (FDR <0.2). Genome-wide significant associations were highly biological plausible, including associations within GABA transporter 1, SLC6A1 (solute carrier family 6, member 1), and exonic hits in LOC100129340 (mitofusin-1-like). Pathway analyses elaborated single marker results, indicating significant enriched associations to intuitive biological mechanisms, including neurotransmission, xenobiotic pharmacodynamics, and nuclear hormone receptors (NHR). These findings underscore the value of combining longitudinal behavioral data and genome-wide genotype information in order to study developmental patterns and improve statistical power in genomic studies.

Significant new opportunities for astrophysics and cosmology have been identified at low radio frequencies. The Murchison Widefield Array is the first telescope in the southern hemisphere designed specifically to explore the low-frequency astronomical sky between 80 and 300 MHz with arcminute angular resolution and high survey efficiency. The telescope will enable new advances along four key science themes, including searching for redshifted 21-cm emission from the EoR in the early Universe; Galactic and extragalactic all-sky southern hemisphere surveys; time-domain astrophysics; and solar, heliospheric, and ionospheric science and space weather. The Murchison Widefield Array is located in Western Australia at the site of the planned Square Kilometre Array (SKA) low-band telescope and is the only low-frequency SKA precursor facility. In this paper, we review the performance properties of the Murchison Widefield Array and describe its primary scientific objectives.