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Climate change is significantly altering our planet, with greenhouse gas emissions and environmental changes bringing us closer to critical tipping points. These changes are impacting species and ecosystems worldwide, leading to the urgent need for understanding and mitigating climate change risks. In this study, we examined global research on assessing climate change risks to species and ecosystems. We found that interest in this field has grown rapidly, with researchers identifying key factors such as species' vulnerability, adaptability, and exposure to environmental changes. Our work highlights the importance of developing better tools to predict risks and create effective protect strategies.
Technical summary
The rising concentration of greenhouse gases, coupled with environmental changes such as albedo shifts, is accelerating the approach to critical climate tipping points. These changes have triggered significant biological responses on a global scale, underscoring the urgent need for robust climate change risk assessments for species and ecosystems. We conducted a systematic literature review using the Web of Science database. Our bibliometric analysis shows an exponential growth in publications since 2000, with over 200 papers published annually since 2019. Our bibliometric analysis reveals that the number of studies has exponentially increased since 2000, with over 200 papers published annually since 2019. High-frequency keywords such as ‘impact’, ‘risk’, ‘vulnerability’, ‘response’, ‘adaptation’, and ‘prediction’ were prevalent, highlighting the growing importance of assessing climate change risks. We then identified five universally accepted concepts for assessing the climate change risk on species and ecosystems: exposure, sensitivity, adaptivity, vulnerability, and response. We provided an overview of the principles, applications, advantages, and limitations of climate change risk modeling approaches such as correlative approaches, mechanistic approaches, and hybrid approaches. Finally, we emphasize that the emerging trends of risk assessment of climate change, encompass leveraging the concept of telecoupling, harnessing the potential of geography, and developing early warning mechanisms.
Social media summary
Climate change risks to biodiversity and ecosystem: key insights, modeling approaches, and emerging strategies.
Prehistoric humans seem to have preferred inhabiting small river basins, which were closer in distance to most settlements compared to larger rivers. The Holocene landscape evolution is considered to have played a pivotal role in shaping the spatiotemporal patterns of these settlements. In this study, we conducted comprehensive research on the relationship between landscape evolution and settlement distribution within the Huangshui River basin, which is a representative small river in Central China with numerous early settlements, including a prehistoric city known as the Wangjinglou site (WJL). Using geoarchaeological investigations, optically stimulated luminescence dating, pollen analysis, and grain-size analysis, we analyzed the characteristics of the Holocene environment. The results indicate the presence of two distinct geomorphic systems, namely the red clay hills and the river valley. The red clay hills, formed in the Neogene, represent remnants of the Songshan piedmont alluvial fan that was eroded by rivers. There are three grades of terraces within the river valley. T3 is a strath terrace and formed around 8.0 ka. Both T2 and T1 are fill terraces, which were developed around 4.0 ka and during the historical period, respectively. The sedimentary features and pollen analysis indicate the existence of an ancient lake-swamp on the platform during 11.0–9.0 ka. This waterbody gradually shrank during 9.0–8.0 ka, and ultimately disappeared after 8.0 ka. Since then, the development of large-scale areas of water ceased on the higher geomorphic units. River floods also cannot reach the top of these high geomorphic units, where numerous prehistoric settlements are located, including the Xia–Shang cities of the WJL site. Our research demonstrates that landscape stability supported the long-term and sustainable development of ancient cultures and facilitated the establishment of the WJL ancient cities in the region.
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressively worsening condition that is often overlooked in its early stages. In Brazil, factors such as population aging and rising comorbidities are expected to shift CKD prevalence toward more advanced stages, leading to greater socioeconomic and environmental impacts. The significant burden of renal replacement therapy (RRT) suggests the need to prioritize preventive and early detection strategies.
Methods
We developed a patient-level simulation model to estimate the impact of CKD in Brazil over 10 years (from 2023 to 2032) on clinical, patient, health system, environmental, productivity, and societal outcomes. Validation was conducted against Brazilian demographic data and cross-validated with the Inside CKD model. We estimated productivity losses by multiplying CKD-related workdays missed by daily costs for patients and caregivers.
Results
The number of Brazilians with CKD was projected to increase by 7.2 percent (approximately 27.7 million) over the next 10 years, mainly among patients with late-stage disease, while the number of patients undergoing dialysis was projected to increase by 170.8 percent (approximately 233,000) over the same period. CKD was projected to result in BRL198 billion (USD 38 billion) of lost income. From an environmental standpoint, freshwater consumption, fossil fuel depletion, and carbon dioxide emissions due to patients with CKD were projected to increase by 40 percent by 2032. RRT was projected to require the equivalent annual water usage of approximately 370,000 households and the annual power of approximately 11 million lightbulbs and will produce annual carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to approximately 1.5 million cars.
Conclusions
While the overall number of patients with CKD will increase by 7 percent (from 25.8 million in 2022 to 27.7 million in 2032), the distribution toward later stages of CKD will cause significant impacts in terms of the healthcare system (resource use and costs), patients and caregivers, society, and the environment.
The growing burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Brazil is increasingly evident, marked by its significant contributions to mortality rates and healthcare costs. Managing CKD, especially through renal replacement therapy (RRT), demands substantial resources. To enhance healthcare decision-making, a thorough examination of the relationship between the rising prevalence of CKD and its clinical and economic impacts is crucial.
Methods
We developed a patient-level simulation model to project the natural history of CKD, defined as the IMPACT CKD. This model integrated factors such as acute kidney injury, cardiovascular events, and comorbidities, and aimed to assess CKD’s clinical, humanistic, and economic impact on the healthcare system. It forecasted the burden of CKD over the next decade (2023 to 2032). This projection is pivotal to derive the burden of CKD for health technology assessment (HTA) evaluations. Validation was conducted against Brazil’s demographic data and cross-validated with the Inside CKD model.
Results
The IMPACT CKD forecast a rapid increase of CKD population in Brazil, outpacing the growth of the general population. Specifically, there is an expected 6.9 percent increase in stages 3 to 5 CKD, leading to a higher demand for dialysis (projected 370,000 cases in 2032) and transplants (projected 115,000 cases in 2032). A significant increase in cardiovascular CKD-related events (+100.6%) and mortality (+67.8%) is expected. In 2032, it is projected 15 million CKD patients will be in stages 1 to 2, and 12.7 million in stages 3 to 5. CKD-related healthcare costs will represent 25.7 percent of Brazil’s healthcare budget, and dialysis will reach USD2.7 billion in annual costs.
Conclusions
IMPACT CKD predicts an increasing CKD prevalence and an alarming rise in stages 3 to 5 and RRT, including thousands of premature deaths, and a substantial economic burden on the Brazilian healthcare system. This data could be informative for healthcare decision-makers when choosing strategy to reduce the impact of CKD in Brazil.
Stimulated Raman scattering is a third-order nonlinear optical effect that is not only effective for wavelength converting laser output, but also for single longitudinal-mode output due to the absence of spatial hole burning. Diamond is a prominent Raman-active medium that has significant potential for linewidth narrowing and wavelength converting lasers at high power levels due to its high thermal conductivity, long Raman frequency shift and wide spectral transmission range. In this work we utilize diamond in a resonantly mode-matched external cavity to achieve cascaded Raman conversion of a 1064 nm laser. By fine-tuning the length of this external cavity, we can obtain narrow linewidth emission at 1240 and 1485 nm. When operating at maximum power, the measured linewidths were more than twofold narrower than the linewidth of the fundamental field. In addition, the noise levels of the Stokes fields are lower than that of the fundamental field throughout the entire noise frequency range, and the intrinsic linewidth of the second Stokes field, which is expressed at the hertz level (~3.6 Hz), is decreased by approximately three orders of magnitude compared to that of the pump. This work represents the first measurement and analysis of the linewidth and noise characteristics of cascaded diamond Raman lasers and, significantly, offers a new means by which high-power, narrow linewidth laser output can be produced from wavelength-converted laser systems.
China was a centre for early plant domestication, millets in the north and rice in the south, with both crops then spreading widely. The Laoguantai Culture (c. 8000–7000 BP) of the middle Yellow River region encompasses a crucial stage in the transition from hunting and gathering to farming, yet its subsistence basis is poorly understood. The authors present archaeobotanical data from the site of Beiliu indicating that farmers exploited a variety of wild and cultivated plants. The predominance of broomcorn millet accords with other Neolithic cultures in northern China but the presence of rice—some of the earliest directly dated examples—opens questions about the integration of rice cultivation into local subsistence strategies.
This study aimed to evaluate a novel rTMS protocol for treatment-resistant depression (TRD), using an EEG 10–20 system guided dual-target accelerated approach of right lateral orbitofrontal cortex (lOFC) inhibition followed by left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) excitation, along with comparing 20 Hz dlPFC accelerated TMS v. sham.
Methods
Seventy five patients participated in this trial consisting of 20 sessions over 5 consecutive days comparing dual-site (cTBS of right lOFC followed sequentially by 20 Hz rTMS of left dlPFC), active control (sham right lOFC followed by 20 Hz rTMS of left dlPFC) and sham control (sham for both targets). Resting-state fMRI was acquired prior to and following treatment.
Results
Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD-24) scores were similarly significantly improved at 4 weeks in both the Dual and Single group relative to Sham. Planned comparisons immediately after treatment highlighted greater HRSD-24 clinical responders (Dual: 47.8% v. Single:18.2% v. Sham:4.3%, χ2 = 13.0, p = 0.002) and in PHQ-9 scores by day 5 in the Dual relative to Sham group. We further showed that accelerated 20 Hz stimulation targeting the left dlPFC (active control) is significantly better than sham at 4 weeks. Dual stimulation decreased lOFC-subcallosal cingulate functional connectivity. Greater baseline lOFC-thalamic connectivity predicted better therapeutic response, while decreased lOFC-thalamic connectivity correlated with better response.
Conclusions
Our novel accelerated dual TMS protocol shows rapid clinically relevant antidepressant efficacy which may be related to state-modulation. This study has implications for community-based accessible TMS without neuronavigation and rapid onset targeting suicidal ideation and accelerated discharge from hospital.
Coccidiosis is a parasitic disease caused by Eimeria spp., and the emergence of drug resistance has seriously affected the control of the disease. Using RNA-seq, we previously found that phosphoglycerate kinase of Eimeria tenella (EtPGK) was differentially downregulated in diclazuril-resistant (DZR) and maduramicin-resistant (MRR) strains compared with drug-sensitive (DS) strain. In this study, we further analysed the characteristics and functions of EtPGK to find the possible mechanism of drug resistance of E. tenella. Quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) and western blot found that EtPGK was highly expressed in sporulated oocysts, followed by sporozoites and second-generation merozoites of E. tenella. Indirect immunofluorescence localization showed that EtPGK was located mainly in the cytoplasm and on the surface of the parasites. Invasion inhibition assays showed that anti-rEtPGK antibody significantly inhibited the invasion of parasites. Further studies using qRT-PCR and western blot found that the transcription and translation levels of EtPGK were downregulated in both resistant (DZR and MRR) strains compared with the DS strain, and the transcription level correlated negatively with the drug concentration. The enzyme activity assay revealed that EtPGK enzyme activity was decreased in the DZR strain compared with the DS strain. qRT-PCR revealed that the mRNA transcription level of EtPGK was significantly downregulated in the field DZR strain and salinomycin-resistant strain compared with the DS strain. These results suggested that EtPGK has other important roles that are separate and distinct from its function in glycolysis, and it might be involved in the development of drug resistance of E. tenella.
An ultrasonic phased array system is introduced to study the three-dimensional (3-D) movement of a single bubble in a GaInSn alloy under a transverse magnetic field (MF), which is verified by bubble experiments in water. The 3-D motion trajectories of individual bubbles in the GaInSn are obtained under a horizontal MF. As the MF becomes stronger, the bubble successively oscillates in random directions (R mode), a direction perpendicular to the MF (V mode), a direction parallel to the MF (P mode) and finally it rises straight (S mode). The significant anisotropy of the oscillation directions at a moderate MF intensity may be due to the anisotropy of the vortex structure around the bubble. Furthermore, the oscillation amplitude gradually declines with increasing MF intensity until the bubble trajectory finally becomes a straight line. Our measurements allow us to specify the characteristic regions for the observed bubble modes in the $N-Eo-Re$ parameter space (N is the magnetic interaction parameter, Eo is the Eötvös number and Re is the Reynolds number). In addition, more detailed characteristics of bubble terminal velocity are revealed, showing that the bubble velocities are closely related to the motion modes. The increase in bubble velocity at a moderate MF intensity is caused by the weakening oscillation. At a high strength, the MF monotonically suppresses the rise velocity of the bubble with a fixed scaling law.
A multiresonance metasurface antenna is proposed which has wide bandwidth and low-profile. The characteristic mode theory is used to design antenna structure. Three ideal modes are obtained by adjusting the mode currents to optimize the radiation performance of the antenna. The characteristic mode analysis is used to model, analyze, and optimize the antenna, revealing the physical characteristics of the metasurface antenna. The slot is not only used as the feeding structure for exciting characteristic modes but also introduces a slot mode. Combining the slot mode with the metasurface modes, the bandwidth of the antenna is broadened. The antenna element has a relative bandwidth of 43.7%. To obtain higher gain, a 2 × 2 antenna array is proposed. The antenna array is simulated, fabricated, and measured. The results show that the relative bandwidth of the proposed metasurface antenna array is 31.6% with the gain of 12.3–15.8 dBi over the operating bandwidth.
Mythimna separata (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is an omnivorous pest that poses a great threat to food security. Insect antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are small peptides that are important effector molecules of innate immunity. Here, we investigated the role of the AMP cecropin B in the growth, development, and immunity of M. separata. The gene encoding M. separata cecropin B (MscecropinB) was cloned. The expression of MscecropinB was determined in different developmental stages and tissues of M. separata. It was highest in the prepupal stage, followed by the pupal stage. Among larval stages, the highest expression was observed in the fourth instar. Tissue expression analysis of fourth instar larvae showed that MscecropinB was highly expressed in the fat body and haemolymph. An increase in population density led to upregulation of MscecropinB expression. MscecropinB expression was also upregulated by the infection of third and fourth instar M. separata with Beauveria bassiana or Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). RNA interference (RNAi) targeting MscecropinB inhibited the emergence rate and fecundity of M. separata, and resulted in an increased sensitivity to B. bassiana and Bt. The mortality of M. separata larvae was significantly higher in pathogen plus RNAi-treated M. separata than in controls treated with pathogens only. Our findings indicate that MscecropinB functions in the eclosion and fecundity of M. separata and plays an important role in resistance to infection by B. bassiana and Bt.
OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Early life pain/stress impacts infants’ neurodevelopmental outcomes. Mitochondrial dysfunction may interface between infants’ stress and neurodevelopment. The study aims to investigate the associations between pain/stress, proteins associated with mitochondrial dysfunction, and neurobehavioral responses in preterm infants. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: A prospective cohort study was conducted with 33 preterm infants enrolled between September 2017 and July 2022 at two affiliated NICUs in Hartford and Farmington, CT. Daily pain/stress experienced during NICU was documented. At 36-38 weeks post-menstrual age (PMA), neurobehavioral outcomes were evaluated using the NICU Network Neurobehavioral Scale (NNNS) and buccal swabs for Mass spectrometry-based proteomics analysis. Lasso statistical methods were conducted to study the association between protein abundance and infants’ NNNS summary scores. Multiple linear regression and Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment analyses were performed to examine how clinical characteristics and neurodevelopmental outcomes may be associated with protein levels and underlying molecular pathways. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: During NICU hospitalization, preterm premature rupture of membrane (PPROM) was negatively associated with neurobehavioral outcomes. The protein functions, including leptin receptor binding activity, glutathione disulfide oxidoreductase activity, and response to oxidative stress, lipid metabolism, phosphate, and proton transmembrane transporter activity, were negatively associated with neurobehavioral outcomes. In contrast, cytoskeletal regulation, epithelial barrier, and protection function were found to be positively associated with neurodevelopmental outcomes. In addition, mitochondrial dysfunction-related proteins (SPRR2A, PAIP1, S100A3, MT-CO2, PiC, GLRX, PHB2, and BNIPL-2, ABLIM1, UNC45A, Keratins, MUC1, and CYB5B) were found to be associated with neurobehavioral outcomes. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Mitochondrial dysfunction-related proteins were observed to be associated with early life pain/stress and neurodevelopmental outcomes in infants. Buccal proteins could be used to predict potential neurobehavioral outcomes. In addition, individualized skin integrity protection should be provided to preterm infants during their NICU stay.
A new species of Moniliformis, M. tupaia n. sp. is described using integrated morphological methods (light and scanning electron microscopy) and molecular techniques (sequencing and analysing the nuclear 18S, ITS, 28S regions and mitochondrial cox1 and cox2 genes), based on specimens collected from the intestine of the northern tree shrew Tupaia belangeri chinensis Anderson (Scandentia: Tupaiidae) in China. Phylogenetic analyses show that M. tupaia n. sp. is a sister to M. moniliformis in the genus Moniliformis, and also challenge the systematic status of Nephridiacanthus major. Moniliformis tupaia n. sp. represents the third Moniliformis species reported from China.
Oil palm has been criticized for being an environmentally unfriendly oil crop. In recent decades, oil palm plantations have extended into conservation landscapes, causing severe environmental damage and harming biodiversity. Nevertheless, oil palm remains a highly productive oil crop from which most of the world's vegetable oil is produced. Therefore, measuring the environmental impact of oil palm plantations and identifying suitable land to support its sustainable development is crucial.
Technical summary
To meet the rising global palm oil demand sustainably, we tracked annual land cover changes in oil palm plantation and mapped areas worldwide suitable for sustainable oil palm cultivation. From 1982 to 2019, 3.6 Mha of forests were converted to oil palm plantations. Despite a recent decline in overall conversion, the shift from forest to oil palm plantations has become increasingly more common over the last decade, rising from 14.1 to 34.5% between 2009 and 2019. During 1982–2019, 2.23 Mha of peatland and 0.1 Mha of protected areas were converted for oil palm plantations. The potential sustainable land amounts to 103.5–317.9 Mha (Asia: 44.6–105.1 Mha, Africa: 34.7–96.4 Mha, and Latin America: 35.2–116.5 Mha). Future oil palm expansion is anticipated to take place in countries like Brazil, Nigeria, Colombia, Indonesia, Ivory Coast, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ghana, where more sustainable land is available for cultivation. Malaysia, on the other hand, is about to exceed the area of sustainable cultivation, and further expansion is not recommended. These findings can advance our understanding of the environmentally damaging impacts of oil palm and enhance the feasibility of sustainable oil palm development.
Social media summary
How should suitable land be chosen for the establishment of oil palm plantations to support the sustainable development of the oil palm plantation industry?
The production and industrial use of asbestos cement and other asbestos-containing materials have been restricted in most countries because of the potential detrimental effects on human health and the environment. Chrysotile is the most common form of asbestos and investigations into how to recycle this serpentine phyllosilicate mineral have attracted extensive attention. Chrysotile asbestos tailings can be transformed thermally, at high temperature, by in situ carbothermal reduction (CR). The CR method aims to maximize use of the chrysotile available and uses high temperatures and carbon to change the mineral form and structure of the chrysotile asbestos tailings. When chrysotile asbestos is employed as the raw material and coke (carbon) powder is used as the reducing agent for CR transformation, stable, high-temperature composites consisting of forsterite, stishovite, and silicon carbide are formed. Forsterite (Mg2SiO4) was the most abundant crystalline phase formed in samples heat treated below 1500ºC. At 1600ºC, forsterite was exhausted through decomposition and β-SiC formed by reduction of stishovite. A larger proportion of β-SiC was generated as the carbon content was increased. This research revealed that both temperature and carbon addition play key roles in the transformation of chrysotile asbestos tailings.
In order to establish a compact all-optical Thomson scattering source, experimental studies were conducted on the 45 TW Ti: sapphire laser facility. By including a steel wafer, mixed gas, and plasma mirror into a double-exit jet, several mechanisms, such as shock-assisted ionization injection, ionization injection, and driving laser reflection, were integrated into one source. So, the source of complexity was remarkably reduced. Electron bunches with central energy fluctuating from 90 to 160 MeV can be produced. Plasma mirrors were used to reflect the driving laser. The scattering of the reflected laser on the electron bunches led to the generation of X-ray photons. Through comparing the X-ray spots under different experimental conditions, it is confirmed that the X-ray photons are generated by Thomson scattering. For further application, the energy spectra and source size of the Thomson scattering source were measured. The unfolded spectrum contains a large amount of low-energy photons besides a peak near 67 keV. Through importing the electron energy spectrum into the Monte Carlo simulation code, the different contributions of the photons with small and large emitting angles can be used to explain the origin of the unfolded spectrum. The maximum photon energy extended to about 500 keV. The total photon production was 107/pulse. The FWHM source size was about 12 μm.
The formation of manganese (Mn) oxides is influenced by environmental conditions and, in some red soils, Mn oxides occur as coatings on the surface of kaolinite particles in the form of colloidal films or fine particles. The present study aimed to explore the types of formation mechanisms of Mn oxide minerals on the surface of kaolinite. Mn oxide minerals synthesized by reducing the Mn in KMnO4 with a divalent Mn salt (MnSO4) were examined using X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The effects of various initial molar ratios of Mn2+/Mn7+ (R = 1:0.67, 1:1, 1:2, and 1:4), cationic species (Na+ or Mg2+), synthesis temperatures (30, 60, and 110°C), and amount of added kaolinite (0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, and 5.0 g) on the formation of Mn oxides were studied. The results showed that Mn oxide mineral types were affected by the initial R value and the background cation. With decreases in the initial R value, the synthesized minerals transformed from cryptomelane to birnessite. The relative mass ratios of kaolinite to Mn oxide were calculated as 1:0.92, 1:0.63, 1:1.15, and 1:1.63. The sodium cation (Na+) had a greater role than Mg2+ in promoting the dissolution–recrystallization of birnessite to cryptomelane. The synthesis temperature had no effect on mineral types, but Mn content increased as temperature increased. When the amount of added kaolinite was increased from 0.25 to 5.0 g, Mn oxide minerals formed gradually and transformed from birnessite to cryptomelane. This work revealed a possible formation process and reaction mechanism on the surface of kaolinite particles in some red soils.
Although ethanol treatment is widely used to activate oocytes, the underlying mechanisms are largely unclear. Roles of intracellular calcium stores and extracellular calcium in ethanol-induced activation (EIA) of oocytes remain to be verified, and whether calcium-sensing receptor (CaSR) is involved in EIA is unknown. This study showed that calcium-free ageing (CFA) in vitro significantly decreased intracellular stored calcium (sCa) and CaSR expression, and impaired EIA, spindle/chromosome morphology and developmental potential of mouse oocytes. Although EIA in oocytes with full sCa after ageing with calcium does not require calcium influx, calcium influx is essential for EIA of oocytes with reduced sCa after CFA. Furthermore, the extremely low EIA rate in oocytes with CFA-downregulated CaSR expression and the fact that inhibiting CaSR significantly decreased the EIA of oocytes with a full complement of CaSR suggest that CaSR played a significant role in the EIA of ageing oocytes. In conclusion, CFA impaired EIA and the developmental potential of mouse oocytes by decreasing sCa and downregulating CaSR expression. Because mouse oocytes routinely treated for activation (18 h post hCG) are equipped with a full sCa complement and CaSR, the present results suggest that, while calcium influx is not essential, CaSR is required for the EIA of oocytes.
To explore the effect of yield stress on the secondary breakup of gel drops, experimental and theoretical investigations are carried out by employing a high-speed camera. A unique hemline-type breakup, as a modified behaviour of sheet-thinning breakup, occurs when the air velocity increases to a high region. The edges of the drops constantly deform into thin membranes when the high-velocity air skims over the gel drops. These membranes vibrate vertically, and breaking points occur at high amplitudes, causing the formation of reticular fragments. The results of linear stability analysis indicated that the yield stress of the gel drops has an influence on the formation and breakup of the gel membranes. The breakup regime map and breakup times are also studied.