Developmental psychopathologists are increasingly focused on
characterizing heterogeneity of trajectories of psychological disorders
across the life course (e.g., developmentally limited vs. chronic forms
of disorder). Although the developmental significance of trajectories
has been highlighted, there has been little attention to relations
between trajectories and their etiologically and clinically relevant
time-varying covariates (dynamic predictors). Depending upon the
functional relation between a disorder and a dynamic predictor, we
expect to see different trajectories of dynamic predictors. Thus, we
propose a taxonomy of trajectories of dynamic predictors of course of
disorder and provide an initial investigation into its validity. Using
a mixed-gender, high-risk sample of young adults followed over 7 years,
we identified dynamic predictors that covary with the course of alcohol
use disorder (AUD). Based on a logically derived classification to
facilitate interpretation of findings, three comparison groups were
examined: persons whose AUD “remitted” (n = 33),
those with a chronic AUD (n = 29), and nondiagnosers
(n = 274). We hypothesized seven patterns of dynamic
prediction (stable vulnerability indicators, course trackers,
deterioration markers, developmentally specific variables,
developmental lag markers, course-referenced variables, and recovery
behaviors) and found evidence for five of them. The interpretation of
markers of risk for development and course of AUDs and their
implications for prevention, early intervention and
formal/self-change treatments are discussed.Preparation of this article was supported by NIH Grants
R37AA07231 and R01AA013987 to Kenneth J. Sher and P50 AA11998 to Andrew
Heath from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.
Portions of this research were presented at the annual meeting of the
Research Society on Alcoholism, Denver, CO, June 2000; the biennial
meeting for the Society for Research on Adolescence, April 2000; and
the Michigan Symposium on Developmental Discontinuities, June 2002. We
gratefully acknowledge Laurie Chassin, Patrick Curran, Andrea Hussong,
Kristina M. Jackson, Jenny Larkins, Terrie Moffitt, and Susan
O'Neill for providing numerous, helpful comments on an earlier
version of this article.