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The identification of predictors of treatment response is crucial for improving treatment outcome for children with anxiety disorders. Machine learning methods provide opportunities to identify combinations of factors that contribute to risk prediction models.
Methods
A machine learning approach was applied to predict anxiety disorder remission in a large sample of 2114 anxious youth (5–18 years). Potential predictors included demographic, clinical, parental, and treatment variables with data obtained pre-treatment, post-treatment, and at least one follow-up.
Results
All machine learning models performed similarly for remission outcomes, with AUC between 0.67 and 0.69. There was significant alignment between the factors that contributed to the models predicting two target outcomes: remission of all anxiety disorders and the primary anxiety disorder. Children who were older, had multiple anxiety disorders, comorbid depression, comorbid externalising disorders, received group treatment and therapy delivered by a more experienced therapist, and who had a parent with higher anxiety and depression symptoms, were more likely than other children to still meet criteria for anxiety disorders at the completion of therapy. In both models, the absence of a social anxiety disorder and being treated by a therapist with less experience contributed to the model predicting a higher likelihood of remission.
Conclusions
These findings underscore the utility of prediction models that may indicate which children are more likely to remit or are more at risk of non-remission following CBT for childhood anxiety.
Hand hygiene is a simple, low-cost intervention that may lead to substantial population-level effects in suppressing acute respiratory infection epidemics. However, quantification of the efficacy of hand hygiene on respiratory infection in the community is lacking. We searched PubMed for randomised controlled trials on the effect of hand hygiene for reducing acute respiratory infections in the community published before 11 March 2021. We performed a meta-regression analysis using a Bayesian mixed-effects model. A total of 105 publications were identified, out of which six studies reported hand hygiene frequencies. Four studies were performed in household settings and two were in schools. The average number of handwashing events per day ranged from one to eight in the control arms, and four to 17 in the intervention arms. We estimated that a single hand hygiene event is associated with a 3% (80% credible interval (−1% to 7%)) decrease in the daily probability of an acute respiratory infection. Three of these six studies were potentially at high risk of bias because the primary outcome depended on self-reporting of upper respiratory tract symptoms. Well-designed trials with an emphasis on monitoring hand hygiene adherence are needed to confirm these findings.
A considerable body of evidence suggests that early caregiving may affect the short-term functioning and longer term development of the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenocortical axis. Despite this, most research to date has been cross-sectional in nature or restricted to relatively short-term longitudinal follow-ups. More important, there is a paucity of research on the role of caregiving in low- and middle-income countries, where the protective effects of high-quality care in buffering the child's developing stress regulation systems may be crucial. In this paper, we report findings from a longitudinal study (N = 232) conducted in an impoverished periurban settlement in Cape Town, South Africa. We measured caregiving sensitivity and security of attachment in infancy and followed children up at age 13 years, when we conducted assessments of hypothalamus–pituitary–adrenocortical axis reactivity, as indexed by salivary cortisol during the Trier Social Stress Test. The findings indicated that insecure attachment was predictive of reduced cortisol responses to social stress, particularly in boys, and that attachment status moderated the impact of contextual adversity on stress responses: secure children in highly adverse circumstances did not show the blunted cortisol response shown by their insecure counterparts. Some evidence was found that sensitivity of care in infancy was also associated with cortisol reactivity, but in this case, insensitivity was associated with heightened cortisol reactivity, and only for girls. The discussion focuses on the potentially important role of caregiving in the long-term calibration of the stress system and the need to better understand the social and biological mechanisms shaping the stress response across development in low- and middle-income countries.
A Late Quaternary sea-level curve for South Africa is presented on the basis of new and published data from a range of sea level indicators and a variety of locations. Available evidence suggests that sea level in South Africa broadly follows that described from the Caribbean but that deviations occur during sea-level highstands. During the last interglaciation (oxygen isotope stage 5) and the late Holocene, coastal emergence produced higher sea levels in South Africa than those identified in the Caribbean during the same time intervals. This is tentatively ascribed to predicted lithospheric deformation in continental margin settings.
Although extinction risk has been found to have a consistent negative relationship with geographic range across wide temporal and taxonomic scales, the effect has been difficult to disentangle from factors such as sampling, ecological niche, or clade. In addition, studies of extinction risk have focused on benthic invertebrates with less work on planktic taxa. We employed a global set of 1114 planktic graptolite species from the Ordovician to lower Devonian to analyze the predictive power of species’ traits and abiotic factors on extinction risk, combining general linear models (GLMs), partial least-squares regression (PLSR), and permutation tests. Factors included measures of geographic range, sampling, and graptolite-specific factors such as clade, biofacies affiliation, shallow water tolerance, and age cohorts split at the base of the Katian and Rhuddanian stages.
The percent variance in durations explained varied substantially between taxon subsets from 12% to 45%. Overall commonness, the correlated effects of geographic range and sampling, was the strongest, most consistent factor (12–30% variance explained), with clade and age cohort adding up to 18% and other factors <10%. Surprisingly, geographic range alone contributed little explanatory power (<5%). It is likely that this is a consequence of a nonlinear relationship between geographic range and extinction risk, wherein the largest reductions in extinction risk are gained from moderate expansion of small geographic ranges. Thus, even large differences in range size between graptolite species did not lead to a proportionate difference in extinction risk because of the large average ranges of these species. Finally, we emphasize that the common practice of determining the geographic range of taxa from the union of all occurrences over their duration poses a substantial risk of overestimating the geographic scope of the realized ecological niche and, thus, of further conflating sampling effects on observed duration with the biological effects of range size on extinction risk.
Anxiety disorders are common, and cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) is a first-line treatment. Candidate gene studies have suggested a genetic basis to treatment response, but findings have been inconsistent.
Aims
To perform the first genome-wide association study (GWAS) of psychological treatment response in children with anxiety disorders (n = 980).
Method
Presence and severity of anxiety was assessed using semi-structured interview at baseline, on completion of treatment (post-treatment), and 3 to 12 months after treatment completion (follow-up). DNA was genotyped using the Illumina Human Core Exome-12v1.0 array. Linear mixed models were used to test associations between genetic variants and response (change in symptom severity) immediately post-treatment and at 6-month follow-up.
Results
No variants passed a genome-wide significance threshold (P=5×10–8) in either analysis. Four variants met criteria for suggestive significance (P<5×10–6) in association with response post-treatment, and three variants in the 6-month follow-up analysis.
Conclusions
This is the first genome-wide therapygenetic study. It suggests no common variants of very high effect underlie response to CBT. Future investigations should maximise power to detect single-variant and polygenic effects by using larger, more homogeneous cohorts.
We previously reported an association between 5HTTLPR genotype and
outcome following cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) in child anxiety
(Cohort 1). Children homozygous for the low-expression short-allele
showed more positive outcomes. Other similar studies have produced mixed
results, with most reporting no association between genotype and CBT
outcome.
Aims
To replicate the association between 5HTTLPR and CBT outcome in child
anxiety from the Genes for Treatment study (GxT Cohort 2,
n = 829).
Method
Logistic and linear mixed effects models were used to examine the
relationship between 5HTTLPR and CBT outcomes. Mega-analyses using both
cohorts were performed.
Results
There was no significant effect of 5HTTLPR on CBT outcomes in Cohort 2.
Mega-analyses identified a significant association between 5HTTLPR and
remission from all anxiety disorders at follow-up (odds ratio 0.45,
P = 0.014), but not primary anxiety disorder
outcomes.
Conclusions
The association between 5HTTLPR genotype and CBT outcome did not
replicate. Short-allele homozygotes showed more positive treatment
outcomes, but with small, non-significant effects. Future studies would
benefit from utilising whole genome approaches and large, homogenous
samples.
Anxious mothers' parenting, particularly transfer of threat information, has been considered important in their children's risk for social anxiety disorder (SAnxD), and maternal narratives concerning potential social threat could elucidate this contribution. Maternal narratives to their preschool 4- to 5-year-old children, via a picture book about starting school, were assessed in socially anxious (N = 73), and nonanxious (N = 63) mothers. Child representations of school were assessed via doll play (DP). After one school term, mothers (Child Behavior Checklist [CBCL]) and teachers (Teacher Report Form) reported on child internalizing problems, and child SAnxD was assessed via maternal interview. Relations between these variables, infant behavioral inhibition, and attachment, were examined. Socially anxious mothers showed more negative (higher threat attribution) and less supportive (lower encouragement) narratives than controls, and their children's DP representations SAnxD and CBCL scores were more adverse. High narrative threat predicted child SAnxD; lower encouragement predicted negative child CBCL scores and, particularly for behaviorally inhibited children, Teacher Report Form scores and DP representations. In securely attached children, CBCL scores and risk for SAnxD were affected by maternal anxiety and threat attributions, respectively. Low encouragement mediated the effects of maternal anxiety on child DP representations and CBCL scores. Maternal narratives are affected by social anxiety and contribute to adverse child outcome.
The purpose of the study was to investigate whether an intervention which focused on enhancing the quality of the mother-infant relationship would prevent the development of postnatal depression (PND) and the associated impairments in parenting and adverse effects on child development.
Background
Recent meta-analyses indicate modest preventive effects of psychological treatments for women vulnerable to the development of PND. However, given the strong evidence for an impact of PND on the quality of the mother–infant relationship and child development, it is notable that there are limited data on the impact of preventive interventions on these outcomes. This is clearly a question that requires research attention. Accordingly, a randomised controlled trial (RCT) was conducted of such a preventive intervention.
Methods
A large sample of pregnant women was screened to identify those at risk of PND. In an RCT 91 were randomly assigned to receive the index intervention from research health visitors, and 99 were assigned to a control group who received normal care. In an adjacent area 76 women at risk of PND received the index intervention from trained National Health Service (NHS) health visitors. The index intervention involved 11 home visits, two antenatally and nine postnatally. They were supportive in nature, with specific measures to enhance maternal sensitivity to infant communicative signals, including items from the Neonatal Behavioral Assessment Scale. Independent assessments were made at 8 weeks, 18 weeks, and 12 and 18 months postpartum. Assessments were made of maternal mood, maternal sensitivity in mother–infant engagement, and infant behaviour problems, attachment and cognition.
Findings
The RCT revealed that the index intervention had no impact on maternal mood, the quality of the maternal parenting behaviours, or infant outcome, although there were suggestions, on some self-report measures, that those with a lower level of antenatal risk experienced benefit. This was also the case for the intervention delivered by trained NHS health visitors. The findings indicate that the approach investigated to preventing PND and its associated problems cannot be recommended.
Despite many advances in recent years for patients with critical paediatric and congenital cardiac disease, significant variation in outcomes remains across hospitals. Collaborative quality improvement has enhanced the quality and value of health care across specialties, partly by determining the reasons for variation and targeting strategies to reduce it. Developing an infrastructure for collaborative quality improvement in paediatric cardiac critical care holds promise for developing benchmarks of quality, to reduce preventable mortality and morbidity, optimise the long-term health of patients with critical congenital cardiovascular disease, and reduce unnecessary resource utilisation in the cardiac intensive care unit environment. The Pediatric Cardiac Critical Care Consortium (PC4) has been modelled after successful collaborative quality improvement initiatives, and is positioned to provide the data platform necessary to realise these objectives. We describe the development of PC4 including the philosophical, organisational, and infrastructural components that will facilitate collaborative quality improvement in paediatric cardiac critical care.
Promising evidence has emerged of clinical gains using guided self-help cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) for child anxiety and by involving parents in treatment; however, the efficacy of guided parent-delivered CBT has not been systematically evaluated in UK primary and secondary settings.
Aims
To evaluate the efficacy of low-intensity guided parent-delivered CBT treatments for children with anxiety disorders.
Method
A total of 194 children presenting with a current anxiety disorder, whose primary carer did not meet criteria for a current anxiety disorder, were randomly allocated to full guided parent-delivered CBT (four face-to-face and four telephone sessions) or brief guided parent-delivered CBT (two face-to-face and two telephone sessions), or a wait-list control group (trial registration: ISRCTN92977593). Presence and severity of child primary anxiety disorder (Anxiety Disorders Interview Schedule for DSM-IV, child/parent versions), improvement in child presentation of anxiety (Clinical Global Impression –Improvement scale), and change in child anxiety symptoms (Spence Children's Anxiety Scale, child/parent version and Child Anxiety Impact scale, parent version) were assessed at post-treatment and for those in the two active treatment groups, 6 months post-treatment.
Results
Full guided parent-delivered CBT produced superior diagnostic outcomes compared with wait-list at post-treatment, whereas brief guided parent-delivered CBT did not: at post-treatment, 25 (50%) of those in the full guided CBT group had recovered from their primary diagnosis, compared with 16 (25%) of those on the wait-list (relative risk (RR) 1.85, 95% CI 1.14–2.99); and in the brief guided CBT group, 18 participants (39%) had recovered from their primary diagnosis post-treatment (RR = 1.56, 95% CI 0.89–2.74). Level of therapist training and experience was unrelated to child outcome.
Conclusions
Full guided parent-delivered CBT is an effective and inexpensive first-line treatment for child anxiety.
Several factors threaten populations of albatrosses and giant petrels, including the impact of fisheries bycatch and, at some colonies, predation from introduced mammals. We undertook population monitoring on Gough Island of three albatross species (Tristan albatross Diomedea dabbenena L., sooty albatross Phoebetria fusca Hilsenberg, Atlantic yellow-nosed albatross Thalassarche chlororhynchos Gmelin) and southern giant petrels Macronectes giganteus (Gmelin). Over the study period, numbers of the Critically Endangered Tristan albatross decreased at 3.0% a year. Breeding success for this species was low (23%), and in eight count areas was correlated (r2 = 0.808) with rates of population decline, demonstrating chick predation by house mice Mus musculus L. is driving site-specific trends and an overall decline. Numbers of southern giant petrels were stable, contrasting with large increases in this small population since 1979. Significant population declines were not detected for either the Atlantic yellow-nosed or sooty albatross, however, caution should be applied to these results due to the small proportion of the population monitored (sooty albatross) and significant interannual variation in numbers. These trends confirm the Critically Endangered status of the Tristan albatross but further information, including a more accurate estimate of sooty albatross population size, is required before determining island wide and global population trends of the remaining species.
The development of emotional regulation capacities in children at high versus low risk for externalizing disorder was examined in a longitudinal study investigating: (a) whether disturbances in emotion regulation precede and predict the emergence of externalizing symptoms and (b) whether sensitive maternal behavior is a significant influence on the development of child emotion regulation. Families experiencing high (n = 58) and low (n = 63) levels of psychosocial adversity were recruited to the study during pregnancy. Direct observational assessments of child emotion regulation capacities and maternal sensitivity were completed in early infancy, at 12 and 18 months, and at 5 years. Key findings were as follows. First, high-risk children showed poorer emotion regulation capacities than their low-risk counterparts at every stage of assessment. Second, from 12 months onward, emotion regulation capacities showed a degree of stability and were associated with behavioral problems, both concurrently and prospectively. Third, maternal sensitivity was related to child emotion regulation capacities throughout development, with poorer emotion regulation in the high-risk group being associated with lower maternal sensitivity. The results are consistent with a causal role for problems in the regulation of negative emotions in the etiology of externalizing psychopathology and highlight insensitive parenting as a potentially key developmental influence.