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Early warning for epilepsy patients is crucial for their safety and well being, in particular, to prevent or minimize the severity of seizures. Through the patients’ electroencephalography (EEG) data, we propose a meta learning framework to improve the prediction of early ictal signals. The proposed bilevel optimization framework can help automatically label noisy data at the early ictal stage, as well as optimize the training accuracy of the backbone model. To validate our approach, we conduct a series of experiments to predict seizure onset in various long-term windows, with long short-term memory (LSTM) and ResNet implemented as the baseline models. Our study demonstrates that not only is the ictal prediction accuracy obtained by meta learning significantly improved, but also the resulting model captures some intrinsic patterns of the noisy data that a single backbone model could not learn. As a result, the predicted probability generated by the meta network serves as a highly effective early warning indicator.
We formulate haptotaxis models of cancer invasion wherein the infiltrating cancer cells can occupy a spectrum of states in phenotype space, ranging from ‘fully mesenchymal’ to ‘fully epithelial’. The more mesenchymal cells are those that display stronger haptotaxis responses and have greater capacity to modify the extracellular matrix (ECM) through enhanced secretion of matrix-degrading enzymes (MDEs). However, as a trade-off, they have lower proliferative capacity than the more epithelial cells. The framework is multiscale in that we start with an individual-based model that tracks the dynamics of single cells, which is based on a branching random walk over a lattice representing both physical and phenotype space. We formally derive the corresponding continuum model, which takes the form of a coupled system comprising a partial integro-differential equation for the local cell population density function, a partial differential equation for the MDE concentration and an infinite-dimensional ordinary differential equation for the ECM density. Despite the intricacy of the model, we show, through formal asymptotic techniques, that for certain parameter regimes it is possible to carry out a detailed travelling wave analysis and obtain invading fronts with spatial structuring of phenotypes. Precisely, the most mesenchymal cells dominate the leading edge of the invasion wave and the most epithelial (and most proliferative) dominate the rear, representing a bulk tumour population. As such, the model recapitulates similar observations into a front to back structuring of invasion waves into leader-type and follower-type cells, witnessed in an increasing number of experimental studies over recent years.
We consider the long-time behaviour of a West Nile virus (WNv) model consisting of a reaction–diffusion system with free boundaries. Such a model describes the spreading of WNv with the free boundary representing the expanding front of the infected region, which is a time-dependent interval $[g(t), h(t)]$ in the model (Lin and Zhu, Spatial spreading model and dynamics of West Nile virus in birds and mosquitoes with free boundary. J. Math. Biol. 75, 1381–1409, 2017). The asymptotic spreading speed of the front has been determined in Wang et al. (Spreading speed for a West Nile virus model with free boundary. J. Math. Biol. 79, 433–466, 2019) by making use of the associated semi-wave solution, namely $\lim _{t\to \infty } h(t)/t=\lim _{t\to \infty }[\!-g(t)/t]=c_\nu$, with $c_\nu$ the speed of the semi-wave solution. In this paper, by employing new techniques, we significantly improve the estimate in Wang et al. (Spreading speed for a West Nile virus model with free boundary. J. Math. Biol. 79, 433–466, 2019): we show that $h(t)-c_\nu t$ and $g(t)+c_\nu t$ converge to some constants as $t\to \infty$, and the solution of the model converges to the semi-wave solution. The results also apply to a wide class of analogous Ross–MacDonold epidemic models.
The present paper deals with the kinetic-theoretic description of the evolution of systems consisting of many particles interacting not only with each other but also with the external world, so that the equation governing their evolution contains an additional term representing such interaction, called the ‘forcing term’. Firstly, the interactions between pairs of particles are both conservative and nonconservative; the latter represents, among others, birth/death rates. The ‘forcing term’ does not express a ‘classical’ force exerted by the external world on the particles, but a more general influence on the effects of mutual interactions of particles, for instance, climate changes, that increase or decrease the different agricultural productions at different times, thus altering the economic relationships between different subsystems, that in turn can be also perturbed by stock market fluctuations, sudden wars, periodic epidemics, and so on. Thus, the interest towards these problems moves the mathematical analysis of the effects of different kinds of forcing terms on solutions to equations governing the collective (that is statistical) behaviour of such nonconservative many-particle systems. In the present paper, we offer a study of the basic mathematical properties of such solutions, along with some numerical simulations to show the effects of forcing terms for a classical prey–predator model in ecology.
This paper discusses a general class of replicator–mutator equations on a multidimensional fitness space. We establish a novel probabilistic representation of weak solutions of the equation by using the theory of Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov (FPK) equations and a martingale extraction approach. We provide examples with closed-form probabilistic solutions for different fitness functions considered in the existing literature. We also construct a particle system and prove a general convergence result to the unique solution of the FPK equation associated with the extended replicator–mutator equation with respect to a Wasserstein-like metric adapted to our probabilistic framework.
We introduce a notion of finite sampling consistency for phylogenetic trees and show that the set of finitely sampling-consistent and exchangeable distributions on n-leaf phylogenetic trees is a polytope. We use this polytope to show that the set of all exchangeable and sampling-consistent distributions on four-leaf phylogenetic trees is exactly Aldous’ beta-splitting model, and give a description of some of the vertices for the polytope of distributions on five leaves. We also introduce a new semialgebraic set of exchangeable and sampling consistent models we call the multinomial model and use it to characterize the set of exchangeable and sampling-consistent distributions. Using this new model, we obtain a finite de Finetti-type theorem for rooted binary trees in the style of Diaconis’ theorem on finite exchangeable sequences.
The Fisher–Kolmogorov–Petrovsky–Piskunov (Fisher–KPP) equation is one of the prototypical reaction–diffusion equations and is encountered in many areas, primarily in population dynamics. An important consideration for the phenomena modelled by diffusion equations is the length of the diffusive process. In this paper, three definitions of the critical time are given, and bounds are obtained by a careful construction of the upper and lower solutions. The comparison functions satisfy the nonlinear, but linearizable, partial differential equations of Fisher–KPP type. Results of the numerical simulations are displayed. Extensions to some classes of reaction–diffusion systems and an application to a spatially heterogeneous harvesting model are also presented.
Detailed balance of a chemical reaction network can be defined in several different ways. Here we investigate the relationship among four types of detailed balance conditions: deterministic, stochastic, local, and zero-order local detailed balance. We show that the four types of detailed balance are equivalent when different reactions lead to different species changes and are not equivalent when some different reactions lead to the same species change. Under the condition of local detailed balance, we further show that the system has a global potential defined over the whole space, which plays a central role in the large deviation theory and the Freidlin–Wentzell-type metastability theory of chemical reaction networks. Finally, we provide a new sufficient condition for stochastic detailed balance, which is applied to construct a class of high-dimensional chemical reaction networks that both satisfies stochastic detailed balance and displays multistability.
We focus on the population dynamics driven by two classes of truncated $\alpha$-stable processes with Markovian switching. Almost necessary and sufficient conditions for the ergodicity of the proposed models are provided. Also, these results illustrate the impact on ergodicity and extinct conditions as the parameter $\alpha$ tends to 2.
One of the most remarkable aspects of human homoeostasis is bone remodelling. This term denotes the continuous renewal of bone that takes place at a microscopic scale and ensures that our skeleton preserves its full mechanical compliance during our lives. We propose here that a renewal process of this type can be represented at an algorithmic level as the interplay of two different but related mechanisms. The first of them is a preliminary screening process, by means of which the whole skeleton is thoroughly and continuously explored. This is followed by a renovation process, whereby regions previously marked for renewal are first destroyed and then rebuilt, in such a way that global mechanical compliance is never compromised. In this work, we pay attention to the first of these two stages. In particular, we show that an efficient screening mechanism may arise out of simple local rules, which at the biological level are inspired by the possibility that individual bone cells compute signals from their nearest local neighbours. This is shown to be enough to put in place a process which thoroughly explores the region where such mechanism operates.
We assume that human carrying capacity is determined by food availability. We propose three classes of human population dynamical models of logistic type, where the carrying capacity is a function of the food production index. We also employ an integration-based parameter estimation technique to derive explicit formulas for the model parameters. Using actual population and food production index data, numerical simulations of our models suggest that an increase in food availability implies an increase in carrying capacity, but the carrying capacity is “self-limiting” and does not increase indefinitely.
The paper presents a conceptual mathematical model for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). According to the so-called amyloid cascade hypothesis, we assume that the progression of AD is associated with the presence of soluble toxic oligomers of beta-amyloid. Monomers of this protein are produced normally throughout life, but a change in the metabolism may increase their total production and, through aggregation, ultimately results in a large quantity of highly toxic polymers. The evolution from monomeric amyloid produced by the neurons to senile plaques (long and insoluble polymeric amyloid chains) is modelled by a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), in the spirit of the Smoluchowski equation. The basic assumptions of the model are that, at the scale of suitably small representative elementary volumes (REVs) of the brain, the production of monomers depends on the average degradation of the neurons and in turn, at a much slower timescale, the degradation is caused by the number of toxic oligomers. To mimic prion-like diffusion of the disease in the brain, we introduce an interaction among adjacent REVs that can be assumed to be isotropic or to follow given preferential patterns. We display the results of numerical simulations which are obtained under some simplifying assumptions. For instance, the amyloid cascade is modelled by just three ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the simulations refer to abstract 2D domains, simplifications which can be easily avoided at the price of some additional computational costs. Since the model is suitably flexible to incorporate other mechanisms and geometries, we believe that it can be generalised to describe more realistic situations.
We analyse oscillatory instabilities for a coupled partial-ordinary differential equation (PDE-ODE) system modelling the communication between localised spatially segregated dynamically active signalling compartments that are coupled through a passive extracellular bulk diffusion field in a bounded 2D domain. Each signalling compartment is assumed to secrete a chemical into the extracellular medium (bulk region), and it can also sense the concentration of this chemical in the region around its boundary. This feedback from the bulk region, resulting from the entire collection of cells, in turn modifies the intracellular dynamics within each cell. In the limit where the signalling compartments are circular discs with a small common radius ɛ ≪ 1 and where the bulk diffusivity is asymptotically large, a matched asymptotic analysis is used to reduce the dimensionless PDE–ODE system into a nonlinear ODE system with global coupling. For Sel’kov reaction kinetics, this ODE system for the intracellular dynamics and the spatial average of the bulk diffusion field are then used to investigate oscillatory instabilities in the dynamics of the cells that are triggered due to the global coupling. In particular, numerical bifurcation software on the ODEs is used to study the overall effect of coupling defective cells (cells that behave differently from the remaining cells) to a group of identical cells. Moreover, when the number of cells is large, the Kuramoto order parameter is computed to predict the degree of phase synchronisation of the intracellular dynamics. Quorum sensing behaviour, characterised by the onset of collective behaviour in the intracellular dynamics as the number of cells increases above a threshold, is also studied. Our analysis shows that the cell population density plays a dual role of triggering and then quenching synchronous oscillations in the intracellular dynamics.
The existence and nonexistence of semi-trivial or coexistence steady-state solutions of one-dimensional competition models in an unstirred chemostat are studied by establishing new results on systems of Hammerstein integral equations via the classical fixed point index theory. We provide three ranges for the two parameters involved in the competition models under which the models have no semi-trivial and coexistence steady-state solutions or have semi-trivial steady-state solutions but no coexistence steady-state solutions or have semi-trivial or coexistence steady-state solutions. It remains open to find the largest range for the two parameters under which the models have only coexistence steady-state solutions. We apply the new results on systems of Hammerstein integral equations to obtain results on steady-state solutions of systems of reaction-diffusion equations with general separated boundary conditions. Such type of results have not been studied in the literature. However, these results are very useful for studying the competition models in an unstirred chemostat. Our results on Hammerstein integral equations and differential equations generalize and improve some previous results.
We formulate a coupled system of renewal equations for the forces of infections in interacting subgroups through a contact network. We use the theory of order-preserving and sub-homogeneous discrete dynamical systems to show the existence and uniqueness of the disease outbreak final sizes in the sub-populations. We illustrate the general theory through a simple SIR model with exponentially and non-exponentially distributed infectious period.
In this paper, we revisit our previous work in which we derive an effective macroscale description suitable to describe the growth of biological tissue within a porous tissue-engineering scaffold. The underlying tissue dynamics is described as a multiphase mixture, thereby naturally accommodating features such as interstitial growth and active cell motion. Via a linearization of the underlying multiphase model (whose nonlinearity poses a significant challenge for such analyses), we obtain, by means of multiple-scale homogenization, a simplified macroscale model that nevertheless retains explicit dependence on both the microscale scaffold structure and the tissue dynamics, via so-called unit-cell problems that provide permeability tensors to parameterize the macroscale description. In our previous work, the cell problems retain macroscale dependence, posing significant challenges for computational implementation of the eventual macroscopic model; here, we obtain a decoupled system whereby the quasi-steady cell problems may be solved separately from the macroscale description. Moreover, we indicate how the formulation is influenced by a set of alternative microscale boundary conditions.
Inspired by a PDE–ODE system of aggregation developed in the biomathematical literature, we investigate an interacting particle system representing aggregation at the level of individuals. We prove that the empirical density of the individual converges to the solution of the PDE–ODE system.