The Cognitive Bias (CogBIAS) hypothesis proposes that cognitive biases develop as a function of environmental influences (which determine the valence of biases) and the genetic susceptibility to those influences (which determines the potency of biases). The current study employed a longitudinal, polygenic-by-environment approach to examine the CogBIAS hypothesis. To this end, measures of life experiences and polygenic scores for depression were used to assess the development of memory and interpretation biases in a three-wave sample of adolescents (12–16 years) (N = 337). Using mixed effects modeling, three patterns were revealed. First, positive life experiences (PLEs) were found to diminish negative and enhance positive forms of memory and social interpretation biases. Second, and against expectation, negative life experiences and depression polygenic scores were not associated with any cognitive outcomes, upon adjusting for psychopathology. Finally, and most importantly, the interaction between high polygenic risk and greater PLEs was associated with a stronger positive interpretation bias for social situations. These results provide the first line of polygenic evidence in support of the CogBIAS hypothesis, but also extend this hypothesis by highlighting positive genetic and nuanced environmental influences on the development of cognitive biases across adolescence.

Meta-analyses demonstrate that the quality of early attachment is modestly associated with peer social competence (r = .19) and externalizing behavior (r = −.15), but weakly associated with internalizing symptoms (r = −.07) across early development (Groh et al., Child Development Perspectives, 11(1), 70–76, 2017). Nonetheless, these reviews suffer from limitations that undermine confidence in reported estimates, including evidence for publication bias and the lack of comprehensive assessments of outcome measures from longitudinal studies in the literature. Moreover, theoretical claims regarding the specificity of the predictive significance of early attachment variation for socioemotional versus academic outcomes had not been evaluated when the analyses for this report were registered (but see Dagan et al., Child Development, 1–20, 2023; Deneault et al., Developmental Review, 70, 101093, 2023). To address these limitations, we conducted a set of registered analyses to evaluate the predictive validity of infant attachment in two landmark studies of the Strange Situation: the Minnesota Longitudinal Study of Risk and Adaptation (MLSRA) and the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (SECCYD). Across-time composite assessments reflecting teacher report, mother report, and self-reports of each outcome measure were created. Bivariate associations between infant attachment security and socioemotional outcomes in the MLSRA were comparable to, or slightly weaker than, those reported in the recent meta-analyses, whereas those in the SECCYD were weaker for these outcomes. Controlling for four demographic covariates, partial correlation coefficients between infant attachment and all socioemotional outcomes were r ≤ .10 to .15 in both samples. Compositing Strange Situations at ages 12 and 18 months did not substantively alter the predictive validity of the measure in the MLSRA, though a composite measure of three different early attachment measures in the SECCYD did increase predictive validity coefficients. Associations between infant attachment security and academic skills were unexpectedly comparable to (SECCYD) or larger than (MLSRA) those observed with respect to socioemotional outcomes.

The density structure of firn has implications for hydrological and climate modelling, and ice-shelf stability. The structure of firn can be evaluated from depth models of seismic velocity, widely obtained with Herglotz–Wiechert inversion (HWI), an approach that considers the slowness of refracted seismic arrivals. However, HWI is strictly appropriate only for steady-state firn profiles and the inversion accuracy can be compromised where firn contains ice layers. In these cases, full waveform inversion (FWI) may yield more success than HWI. FWI extends HWI capabilities by considering the full seismic waveform and incorporates reflected arrivals. Using synthetic firn density profiles, assuming both steady- and non-steady-state accumulation, we show that FWI outperforms HWI for detecting ice slab boundaries (5–80 m thick, 5–80 m deep) and velocity anomalies within firn. FWI can detect slabs thicker than one wavelength (here, 20 m, assuming a maximum frequency of 60 Hz) but requires the starting velocity model to be accurate to ±2.5%. We recommend for field practice that the shallowest layers of velocity models are constrained with ground-truth data. Nonetheless, FWI shows advantages over established methods, and should be considered when the characterisation of firn ice slabs is the goal of the seismic survey.

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is increasingly recognised as a valuable tool for glaciological seismic applications, although analysing the large data volumes generated in acquisitions poses computational challenges. We show the potential of active-source DAS to image and characterise subglacial sediment beneath a fast-flowing Greenlandic outlet glacier, estimating the thickness of sediment layers to be 20–30 m. However, the lack of subglacial velocity constraint limits the accuracy of this estimate. Constraint could be provided by analysing cryoseismic events in a counterpart 3-day record of passive seismicity through, for example, seismic tomography, but locating them within the 9 TB data volume is computationally inefficient. We describe experiments with data compression using the frequency-wavenumber (f-k) transform ahead of training a convolutional neural network, that provides a ~300-fold improvement in efficiency. In combining active and passive-source and our machine learning framework, the potential of large DAS datasets could be unlocked for a range of future applications.

The density structure of firn has implications for hydrological and climate modelling and for ice shelf stability. The firn structure can be evaluated from depth models of seismic velocity, widely obtained with Herglotz-Wiechert inversion (HWI), an approach that considers the slowness of refracted seismic arrivals. However, HWI is appropriate only for steady-state firn profiles and the inversion accuracy can be compromised where firn contains ice layers. In these cases, Full Waveform Inversion (FWI) can be more successful than HWI. FWI extends HWI capabilities by considering the full seismic waveform and incorporates reflected arrivals, thus offering a more accurate estimate of a velocity profile. We show the FWI characterisation of the velocity model has an error of only 1.7% for regions (vs. 4.2% with HWI) with an ice slab (20 m thick, 40 m deep) in an otherwise steady-state firn profile.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Clinical guidelines recommend using predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk to inform treatment decisions. The objective was to compare the contribution of changes in modifiable risk factors Versus aging to the development of high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Prospective follow-up of the Jackson Heart Study, an exclusively African-American cohort, at visit 1 (2000–2004) and visit 3 (2009–2012). Analyses included 1115 African-American participants without a high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk (<7.5%), hypertension, diabetes, or ASCVD at visit 1. We used the Pooled Cohort equations to calculate the incidence of high (≥7.5%) 10-year predicted ASCVD risk at visit 3. We recalculated the percentage with a high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk at visit 3 assuming each risk factor [age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), antihypertensive medication use, diabetes, smoking, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol], one at a time, did not change from visit 1. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The mean age at visit 1 was 45.2±9.5 years. Overall, 30.9% (95% CI 28.3%–33.4%) of participants developed high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk. Aging accounted for 59.7% (95% CI 54.2%–65.1%) of the development of high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk compared with 32.8% (95% CI 27.0%–38.2%) for increases in SBP or antihypertensive medication initiation and 12.8% (95% CI 9.6%–16.5%) for incident diabetes. Among participants <50 years, the contribution of increases in SBP or antihypertensive medication initiation was similar to aging. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Increases in SBP and antihypertensive medication initiation are major contributors to the development of high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk in African Americans, particularly among younger adults.

We study the asset allocation decision of a life insurance company’s general account with respect to the possibility of large negative economic shocks and examine how this account is affected by policyholder investment decisions in the company’s separate account. This is accomplished using a performance metric that incorporates downside risk measured using univariate and multivariate extreme value distributions. Because of its well-known price volatility, diversification attributes, and significant weight in the combined general and separate accounts, our primary focus is the company’s equity investments. Although industry asset allocations have varied over the past two decades, we find that the actual allocations to equity in the general account are close to the allocation percentages suggested by our extreme value metrics and both are far below the maximum values indicated by the relevant regulatory bodies.

This study investigated factors that influence occurrence and persistence of plant DNA in the soil environment in three crop rotations. In each rotation, soil was sampled in May before planting, in July and August while crops were growing, and in October after harvest. Total DNA was recovered from soil samples taken at two different depths in the soil profile and quantified. Three target plant genes (corn CP4 epsps, corn 10-kD Zein, and soybean CP4 epsps) also were quantified in these DNA extracts using species-specific quantitative real-time PCR assays. In general, total plant DNA content in the soil environment was greatest when the crop was growing in the field and decreased rapidly after harvest. Nevertheless, low levels of target plant DNA were often still detectable the following spring. Age of rotation did not influence target DNA quantities found in the soil environment. Data were collected for a combination of 10 location-years, which allowed for estimation of the variance components for six factors including time of sampling, year, location, crop, sampling depth, and herbicide to total and target DNA content in the soil samples. Mean target recombinant DNA content in soil was influenced most strongly by time of sampling and year (85 and 6%, respectively), whereas total soil DNA content was less dynamic and was most strongly influenced by location and year (49 and 25%, respectively). Over the duration of this study, no accumulation of transgenic plant DNA in the soil environment was observed.

The collective response of electrons in an ultrathin foil target irradiated by an ultraintense (${\sim}6\times 10^{20}~\text{W}~\text{cm}^{-2}$) laser pulse is investigated experimentally and via 3D particle-in-cell simulations. It is shown that if the target is sufficiently thin that the laser induces significant radiation pressure, but not thin enough to become relativistically transparent to the laser light, the resulting relativistic electron beam is elliptical, with the major axis of the ellipse directed along the laser polarization axis. When the target thickness is decreased such that it becomes relativistically transparent early in the interaction with the laser pulse, diffraction of the transmitted laser light occurs through a so called ‘relativistic plasma aperture’, inducing structure in the spatial-intensity profile of the beam of energetic electrons. It is shown that the electron beam profile can be modified by variation of the target thickness and degree of ellipticity in the laser polarization.