Assessing systemic risk presents a significant challenge in finance and insurance, where conditional risk measures are essential for capturing contagion effects. This paper introduces two novel systemic risk measures – conditional interval value-at-risk (CoIVaR) and conditional interval expected shortfall (CoIES) – which extend traditional metrics by incorporating interval-based uncertainty. A formal theoretical framework is developed for both measures, offering a detailed characterization of their key properties and risk contributions. We then propose a comprehensive comparison methodology for systemic risk assessment, leveraging stochastic orders, dependence structures, and marginal distributions to establish conditions for ranking risk vectors. Finally, through numerical experiments and real-world stock market applications, we demonstrate the practical utility of CoIVaR and CoIES in quantifying systemic risk under uncertainty. The findings provide valuable insights into systemic risk propagation and establish a robust foundation for risk management in interconnected financial systems.

Previous studies highlighted the health benefits of coffee and tea, but they only focused on the comparisons between different consumptions. Consequently, the association estimate lacked a clear interpretation, as the substitution of beverages and distribution of doses were not explicitly prescribed. We focused on the ‘relative association’ to ascertain the optimal consumption strategy (including total intake and optimal allocation strategy) for coffee, tea and plain water associated with decreased mortality. Self-reported coffee, tea and plain water intake were used from the UK Biobank. Within a compositional data analysis framework, a multivariate Cox model was used to assess the relative associations after adjusting for a range of potential confounders. The lower mortality risk was observed with at least approximately 7–8 drinks/d of total consumption. When the total intake > 4 drinks/d, substituting plain water with coffee or tea was linked to reduced mortality; nevertheless, the benefit was not seen for ≤ 4 drinks/d. Besides, a balanced consumption of coffee and tea (roughly a ratio of 2:3) associated with the lowest hazard ratios of 0·55 (95 % CI 0·47, 0·64) for all-cause mortality, 0·59 (95 % CI 0·48, 0·72) for cancer mortality, 0·69 (95 % CI 0·49, 0·99) for CVD mortality, 0·28 (95 % CI 0·15, 0·52) for respiratory disease mortality and 0·35 (95 % CI 0·15, 0·82) for digestive disease mortality than other combinations. These results highlight the importance of the rational combination of coffee, tea and plain water, with particular emphasis on ensuring adequate total intake, offering more comprehensive and explicit guidance for individuals.

This article reconstructs the mining practices and social activities of Chinese migrants in Maliwun, a tin-rich Burmese village on the Siam-Burma border between the 1840s and 1890s. Despite its natural resources and repeated mining attempts by various stakeholders, Maliwun could not materialise its potential and was slow in tin production and community development throughout this period. By focusing on the internal dynamics among its Chinese miners, especially around the rivalling Chinese “secret societies,” this article situates the frontier mining settlement within a larger regional network of the Southeast Asian Chinese and traces its Chinese community’s evolving relationships with fellow countrymen along the southern Siamese and northern Malayan coastlines. It argues that grassroots organisations played a crucial role in the early formation of this frontier Chinese migrant community, which was sitting at the intersection of political, labour, resource, gender, and ethnic frontiers and exhibited key features of fluid boundaries and transnational networks. Yet, these impacts should not be overstated, individually or collectively. The slow development of Maliwun calls for a careful reassessment of the limitation of roles played by porous borders, hybrid interactions, and transnational networks at a historic frontier.

Evaluators, tasked with making funding decisions under conditions of incomplete information and uncertainty, are particularly susceptible to the influence of temporality and gender expectations. Drawing on the literature on signaling theory and gender expectations, this research examines the importance of past temporal focus in determining innovation funding decisions. Our empirical evidence suggests that innovation projects that focus on past events are more likely to receive favorable evaluations as past temporal focus signals better learning capacity among innovators. Moreover, we build on the signal credibility and visibility literature to support the notion that female-dominated presenting teams that emphasize past actions receive higher evaluations because the learning capacity signal is deemed more credible for women and female evaluators are more reactive to past-related signals, leading to higher evaluations for innovations with a past-focused narrative. Our study contributes to the literature on temporal focus and signal effectiveness and provides implications for mitigating the gender gap in accessing funding through temporal rhetoric.

Previous studies have reported comorbidities of autoimmune thyroid disorders (AITD), including Hashimoto’s disease (HT) and Graves’ disease (GD), and celiac disease (CeD), as well as the possible beneficial effects of a gluten-free diet (GFD) on AITD. Nonetheless, it remains uncertain whether there is a genetic causal relationship between AITD and CeD, while the beneficial effects on a GFD are controversial. This study aim to explore the causal relationship between CeD and AITD, particularly with HT, and to determine whether a GFD is beneficial for AITD. We performed a two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis on data from the largest meta-analysis summary statistics of AITD, CeD and GFD. Genetic instrumental variables were established by pinpointing single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that relate to corresponding factors. In assessing sensitivity and heterogeneity, we conducted examinations of MR Egger, weighted median, simple mode, weighted mode, and MR Egger intercept tests. HT was found to play a pathogenic role in increasing the risk of CeD (ORIVW = 1.544 [95%CI 1.153-2.068], p = 0.00355), and our Mendelian randomization study does not support genetic liability related to CeD with GD (Graves’ disease) and GFD with AITD. This study supports the positive correlation between HT risk and CeD risk, while GFD has no protective effect on AITD and may exert its effect through other mechanisms. These findings provide valuable insights into potential targets for disease intervention and treatment at the genetic level.

While existing research on policy diffusion has provided substantial evidence regarding the drivers of policy adoption across jurisdictions, limited attention has been given to the dynamics of policy textual learning across different levels of government. We fill this gap by using regression analysis to examine the patterns of policy textual learning evident in the clause similarity of seven environmental statutory policies in China. Within China’s decentralized and multilevel environmental governance, our findings reveal that horizontal policy textual learning is more prominent than vertical learning. Temporal distance negatively impacts policy textual learning, whereas spatial distance, contrary to traditional policy diffusion perspectives, does not universally explain multilevel policy textual learning. Additionally, subsequent versions of policy texts are not necessarily similar to earlier ones, challenging conventional assumptions about the adoption and adaptation of policies over time.

We undertake a comprehensive investigation into the distribution of in situ stars within Milky Way-like galaxies, leveraging TNG50 simulations and comparing their predictions with data from the H3 survey. Our analysis reveals that 28% of galaxies demonstrate reasonable agreement with H3, while only 12% exhibit excellent alignment in their profiles, regardless of the specific spatial cut employed to define in situ stars. To uncover the underlying factors contributing to deviations between TNG50 and H3 distributions, we scrutinise correlation coefficients among internal drivers (e.g. virial radius, star formation rate [SFR]) and merger-related parameters (such as the effective mass-ratio, mean distance, average redshift, total number of mergers, average spin-ratio, and maximum spin alignment between merging galaxies). Notably, we identify significant correlations between deviations from observational data and key parameters such as the median slope of virial radius, mean SFR values, and the rate of SFR change across different redshift scans. Furthermore, positive correlations emerge between deviations from observational data and parameters related to galaxy mergers. We validate these correlations using the Random Forest Regression method. Our findings underscore the invaluable insights provided by the H3 survey in unravelling the cosmic history of galaxies akin to the Milky Way, thereby advancing our understanding of galactic evolution and shedding light on the formation and evolution of Milky Way-like galaxies in cosmological simulations.

We conduct direct numerical simulations to investigate the synchronisation of Kolmogorov flows in a periodic box, with a focus on the mechanisms underlying the asymptotic evolution of infinitesimal velocity perturbations, also known as conditional leading Lyapunov vectors. This study advances previous work with a spectral analysis of the perturbation, which clarifies the behaviours of the production and dissipation spectra at different coupling wavenumbers. We show that, in simulations with moderate Reynolds numbers, the conditional leading Lyapunov exponent can be smaller than a lower bound proposed previously based on a viscous estimate. A quantitative analysis of the self-similar evolution of the perturbation energy spectrum is presented, extending the existing qualitative discussion. The prerequisites for obtaining self-similar solutions are established, which include an interesting relationship between the integral length scale of the perturbation velocity and the local Lyapunov exponent. By examining the governing equation for the dissipation rate of the velocity perturbation, we reveal the previously neglected roles of the strain rate and vorticity perturbations, and uncover their unique geometrical characteristics.

We presented an attosecond-precision timing detector based on linear optics. The minimum measurement floor is 1×10–10 fs2/Hz with only 1 mW input optical power. With this novel technique, the residual dispersion of a 5.2 km fiber link is characterized and precisely compensated. Finally, a comprehensive feedback model has been developed to analyze the noise coupling in a long-distance link stabilization system. The simulation results demonstrate an out-of-loop jitter of merely 359 as, integrated at [1 Hz, 1 MHz], at 1 mW input power per photodetector of our timing detector. Remarkably, the system is capable of maintaining sub-femtosecond precision even at optical power levels as low as 240 nW (for a 5.2 km link length), or link lengths as long as 20 km (with 1 μW optical power), respectively.

An important parameter characterising the synchronisation of turbulent flows is the threshold coupling wavenumber. This study investigates the relationship between the threshold coupling wavenumber and the leading Lyapunov vector using large eddy simulations and the SABRA model. Various subgrid-scale stress models, Reynolds numbers and different coupling methods are examined. A new scaling relation is identified for the leading Lyapunov exponents in large eddy simulations, showing that they approximate those of filtered direct numerical simulations. This interpretation provides a physical basis for results related to the Lyapunov exponents of large eddy simulations, including those related to synchronisation. Synchronisation experiments show that the peak wavenumber of the energy spectrum of the leading Lyapunov vector coincides with the threshold coupling wavenumber, in large eddy simulations of box turbulence with standard Smagorinsky or dynamic mixed models as well as in the SABRA model, replicating results from direct numerical simulations of box turbulence. Although the dynamic Smagorinsky model exhibits different behaviour, the totality of the results suggests that the relationship is an intrinsic property of a certain class of chaotic systems. We also confirm that conditional Lyapunov exponents characterise the synchronisation process in indirectly coupled systems as they do in directly coupled ones, with their values insensitive to the nature of the master flow. These findings advance the understanding of the role of the Lyapunov vector in the synchronisation of turbulence.