Glacier energy-balance models offer mechanistic insights into glacier mass balance under a changing climate, yet their considerable data requirements hinder large-scale applications. Here we present the open-source Python Energy Balance model for Snow and Ice (PEBSI), which includes physically based albedo evolution using the Snow, Ice and Aerosol Radiative (SNICAR) model. PEBSI is calibrated and validated using robust in situ data from Gulkana Glacier, Alaska from 2000 to 2024. Simulations forced with original and bias-corrected climate reanalysis data show that statistically downscaling reanalysis data with in situ observations is necessary to reproduce summer mass balance (mean absolute error [MAE] = 0.75 m w.e. vs 0.22 m w.e., respectively). A grid search across two parameters, a precipitation factor and a densification parameter, reveals tradeoffs in performance compared to seasonal mass balance and end-of-winter snow density and depth. No single combination of parameters minimizes all errors, underscoring the inherent overparameterization of energy-balance models and challenges with translating coarse climate data to the glacier scale. The calibrated model successfully simulates the 2024 melt season, agreeing with surface-height change (MAE = 0.48 m) and albedo (MAE = 0.066) observations. Moving forward, PEBSI provides unique opportunities to quantify albedo feedbacks and their impact on present and future glacier mass loss.

In 2022, an anti-vaccine mandate protest in Canada received millions of dollars in support through online crowdfunding. This event catalyzed political crowdfunding in Canada by demonstrating its ability to disseminate ideological discourse and mobilize collective action. Given its newfound visibility and impact, this study examines the landscape of political crowdfunding in Canada. We examined 60 campaigns from the legal, current events and political categories on the crowdfunding platform GiveSendGo and classified campaigns into: COVID-19-related topics, alternative media and free speech, climate change skepticism, and other political campaigns. Thematic analysis of the interactive discourse between campaign hosts and donors revealed that many campaigns were motivated by defending individual rights and freedoms amidst perceived government overreach, which fuels a distrust towards authority, including the government and mainstream media. Our study suggests that political crowdfunding empowers individuals to symbolically reflect their political and ideological beliefs through financial donations.

Falls account for 95 percent of hip fractures in older adults. Wearable hip protectors reduce hip fracture risk in long-term care settings, but their use is low among community-dwelling older adults. We conducted interviews to explore how hip protectors are perceived by 27 community-dwelling older adults who visited the Fraser Health Fall Prevention Mobile Clinic in British Columbia. Directed content analysis focused on perceived benefits, design preferences, and cost as a barrier to use of hip protectors. Most participants acknowledged the benefits of hip protectors in reducing the risk of hip fracture, enhancing physical activity, and reducing the fear of falling. However, most participants did not perceive they were at high enough risk to warrant the use of hip protectors. Participants also discussed how willingness to wear depended on design features, including style, pad thickness, appearance, ease of use, fit, comfort, and laundering. Participants also noted the cost, ranging from $60 to $120, as a barrier.

Between February and April 2018, Salmonella typhimurium within a unique 5-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) address was isolated from 28 cases with links to a small rural area of Northeast England, with five cases prospectively identified by whole genome sequencing (WGS). Infections had a severe clinical picture with ten cases hospitalized (36%), two cases with invasive disease, and two deaths reported. Interviews determined that 24 cases (86%) had been exposed to a local independent butcher’s shop (Butcher A).

A case-control study using controls recruited by systematic digit dialling established that cases were 68 times more likely to have consumed cooked meat from Butcher A (Adjusted OR 68.1; 95% CI: 1.9–2387.6; P = 0.02). Salmonella typhimurium genetically highly related to 28 of the outbreak cases was also isolated from a sample of cooked meat on sale in the premises.

Epidemiological and microbiological investigations suggest this outbreak was likely associated with the consumption of ready-to-eat foods supplied by the implicated butcher. A relatively large number of cases were involved despite the rurality of the food business, with cases resident across the Northeast and Yorkshire identified using WGS, demonstrating the benefit of timely sequencing information to community outbreak investigations.

International travel is thought to be a major risk factor for developing gastrointestinal (GI) illness for UK residents. Here, we present an analysis of routine laboratory and exposure surveillance data from North East (NE) England, describing the destination-specific contribution that international travel makes to the regional burden of GI infection.

Laboratory reports of common notifiable enteric infections were linked to exposure data for cases reported between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2022. Demographic characteristics of cases were described, and rates per 100,000 visits were determined using published estimates of overseas visits from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) International Passenger Survey (IPS).

About 34.9% of cases reported international travel during their incubation period between 2013 and 2022, although travel-associated cases were significantly reduced (>80%) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2013 and 2019, half of Shigella spp. and non-typhoidal Salmonella infections and a third of Giardia sp., Cryptosporidium spp., and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections were reported following travel. Rates of illness were highest in travellers returning from Africa and Asia (107.8 and 61.1 per 100,000 visits), with high rates also associated with tourist resorts like Turkey, Egypt, and the Dominican Republic (386.4–147.9 per 100,000 visits).

International travel is a major risk factor for the development of GI infections. High rates of illness were reported following travel to both destinations, which are typically regarded as high-risk and common tourist resorts. This work highlights the need to better understand risks while travelling to support the implementation of guidance and control measures to reduce the burden of illness in returning travellers.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: To evaluate the incidence of brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI) and its associations with maternal demographic factors. Additionally, we sought to determine whether longitudinal changes in BPBI incidence differed by maternal demographics. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of over 8 million maternal-infant pairs using California’s Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development Linked Birth Files from 1991-2012. Descriptive statistics were used to determine BPBI incidence and the prevalence of maternal demographic factors (race, ethnicity, age). Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine associations of year, maternal race, ethnicity, and age with BPBI. Excess population level risk associated with these characteristics was determined by calculating population attributable fractions. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The incidence of BPBI between 1991-2012 was 1.28 per 1000 live births, with peak incidence of 1.84 per 1000 in 1998 and low of 0.9 per 1000 in 2008. Incidence varied by demographic group, with infants of Black (1.78 per 1000) and Hispanic (1.34 per 1000) mothers having the highest incidences. Controlling for relevant covariates, infants of Black (AOR=1.88, 95% CI 1.70, 2.08), Hispanic (AOR=1.25, 95% CI 1.18, 1.32) and advanced-age mothers (AOR=1.16, 95% CI 1.09, 1.25) were at increased risk. Disparities in risk experienced by Black, Hispanic, and advanced-age mothers contributed to a 5%, 10%, and 2% excess risk at the population level, respectively. Longitudinal trends in incidence did not vary among demographic groups. Population-level changes in maternal demographics did not explain changes in incidence over time. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Although BPBI incidence has decreased in California, demographic disparities exist. Infants of Black, Hispanic, and advanced-age mothers are at increased BPBI risk compared to White, Non-Hispanic, and younger mothers.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: To evaluate the association of maternal delivery history with a brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI) risk in subsequent deliveries, and to estimate the effect of subsequent delivery method on BPBI risk. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all livebirth deliveries occurring in California-licensed hospitals from 1996-2012. The primary outcome was recurrent BPBI in a subsequent pregnancy. The exposure was prior delivery history (parity, shoulder dystocia in a previous delivery, or previously delivering an infant with BPBI). Multiple logistic regression was used to model adjusted associations of prior delivery history with BPBI in a subsequent pregnancy. The adjusted risk (AR) and adjusted risk difference (ARD) for BPBI between vaginal and cesarean delivery in subsequent pregnancies were determined, stratified by prior delivery history, and the number of cesarean deliveries needed to prevent one BPBI was determined. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Of 6,286,324 infants delivered by 4,104,825 individuals, 7,762 (0.12%) were diagnosed with a BPBI. Higher parity was associated with a 5.7% decrease in BPBI risk with each subsequent delivery (aOR 0.94, 95%CI 0.92, 0.97). Previous shoulder dystocia or BPBI were associated with 5-fold (aOR=5.39, 95%CI 4.10, 7.08) and 17-fold increases (aOR=17.22, 95%CI 13.31, 22.27) in BPBI risk, respectively. Among individuals with a history of delivering an infant with a BPBI , cesarean delivery was associated with a 73.0% decrease in BPBI risk (aOR=0.27, 95%CI 0.13, 0.55), compared with an 87.9% decrease in BPBI risk (aOR=0.12, 95%CI 0.10, 0.15) in individuals without this history. Among individuals with a previous history of BPBI, 48.1 cesarean deliveries are needed to prevent one BPBI. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Parity, previous shoulder dystocia, and previously delivering a BPBI infant are associated with future BPBI risk. These factors are identifiable prenatally and can inform discussions with pregnant individuals regarding BPBI risk and planned mode of delivery.

We describe the investigations and management of a Cryptosporidium parvum outbreak of linked to consumption of pasteurised milk from a vending machine. Multiple locus variable number of tandem repeats analysis was newly used, confirming that C. parvum detected in human cases was indistinguishable from that in a calf on the farm. This strengthened the evidence for milk from an on-farm vending machine as the source of the outbreak because of post-pasteurisation contamination. Bacteriological indicators of post-pasteurisation contamination persisted after the initial hygiene improvement notice. We propose that on-farm milk vending machines may represent an emerging public health risk.

The rise in domestic violence and abuse has been dubbed a ‘pandemic within a pandemic’. Individuals known to mental health services are particularly vulnerable. Yet despite challenges to mitigating domestic violence and abuse in this group, the COVID-19 pandemic has provided opportunities to develop new interventions to support those affected.

This study presents on the initial development and validation of the Resilience Scale for Older Adults (RSOA). This new measure is based on a theoretical model of resilience grounded in qualitative research conducted with older adults. The scale consists of four resilience protective factors with 11 underlying facets. The Intrapersonal factor consists of Perseverance and Determination, Self-Efficacy and Independence, Purpose and Meaning, and Positive Perspective. The Interpersonal factor consists of Sense of Community, Family Support, and Friend/Neighbour Support. The Spiritual factor consists of Faith and Prayer, and the Experiential factor consists of Previous Adversity and Proactivity. The findings of three independent studies using older adult samples support the four-factor, 11-facet structure of the RSOA. Results also provide promising initial reliability and validity information, and analysis of gender invariance suggests that the factor structure is comparable across men and women. Implications for the applicability of the RSOA in research and clinical settings are discussed.