Individuals often assess themselves as being less susceptible to common biases compared to others. This bias blind spot (BBS) is thought to represent a metacognitive error. In this research, we tested three explanations for the effect: The cognitive sophistication hypothesis posits that individuals who display the BBS more strongly are actually less biased than others. The introspection bias hypothesis posits that the BBS occurs because people rely on introspection more when assessing themselves compared to others. The conversational processes hypothesis posits that the effect is largely a consequence of the pragmatic aspects of the experimental situation rather than true metacognitive error. In two experiments (N = 1057) examining 18 social/motivational and cognitive biases, there was strong evidence of the BBS. Among the three hypotheses examined, the conversational processes hypothesis attracted the greatest support, thus raising questions about the extent to which the BBS is a metacognitive effect.

Many decisions in everyday life involve a choice between exploring options that are currently unknown and exploiting options that are already known to be rewarding. Previous work has suggested that humans solve such “explore-exploit” dilemmas using a mixture of two strategies: directed exploration, in which information seeking drives exploration by choice, and random exploration, in which behavioral variability drives exploration by chance. One limitation of this previous work was that, like most studies on explore-exploit decision making, it focused exclusively on the domain of gains, where the goal was to maximize reward. In many real-world decisions, however, the goal is to minimize losses and it is well known from Prospect Theory that behavior can be quite different in this domain. In this study, we compared explore-exploit behavior of human subjects under conditions of gain and loss. We found that people use both directed and random exploration regardless of whether they are exploring to maximize gains or minimize losses and that there is quantitative agreement between the exploration parameters across domains. Our results also revealed an overall bias towards the more uncertain option in the domain of losses. While this bias towards uncertainty was qualitatively consistent with the predictions of Prospect Theory, quantitatively we found that the bias was better described by a Bayesian account, in which subjects had a prior that was optimistic for losses and pessimistic for gains. Taken together, our results suggest that explore-exploit decisions are driven by three independent processes: directed and random exploration, and a baseline uncertainty seeking that is driven by a prior.

HIV and severe wasting are associated with post-discharge mortality and hospital readmission among children with complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM); however, the reasons remain unclear. We assessed body composition at hospital discharge, stratified by HIV and oedema status, in a cohort of children with complicated SAM in three hospitals in Zambia and Zimbabwe. We measured skinfold thicknesses and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) to investigate whether fat and lean mass were independent predictors of time to death or readmission. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between death/readmission and discharge body composition. Mixed effects models were fitted to compare longitudinal changes in body composition over 1 year. At discharge, 284 and 546 children had complete BIA and skinfold measurements, respectively. Low discharge lean and peripheral fat mass were independently associated with death/hospital readmission. Each unit Z-score increase in impedance index and triceps skinfolds was associated with 48 % (adjusted hazard ratio 0·52, 95 % CI (0·30, 0·90)) and 17 % (adjusted hazard ratio 0·83, 95 % CI (0·71, 0·96)) lower hazard of death/readmission, respectively. HIV-positive v. HIV-negative children had lower gains in sum of skinfolds (mean difference −1·49, 95 % CI (−2·01, −0·97)) and impedance index Z-scores (–0·13, 95 % CI (−0·24, −0·01)) over 52 weeks. Children with non-oedematous v. oedematous SAM had lower mean changes in the sum of skinfolds (–1·47, 95 % CI (−1·97, −0·97)) and impedance index Z-scores (–0·23, 95 % CI (−0·36, −0·09)). Risk stratification to identify children at risk for mortality or readmission, and interventions to increase lean and peripheral fat mass, should be considered in the post-discharge care of these children.

Functional benefits of the morphologies described by Bergmann's and Allen's rules in human males have recently been reported. However, the functional implications of ecogeographical patterning in females remain poorly understood. Here, we report the findings of preliminary work analysing the association between body shape and performance in female ultramarathon runners (n = 36) competing in hot and cold environments. The body shapes differed between finishers of hot and cold races, and also between hot race finishers and non-finishers. Variability in race performance across different settings supports the notion that human phenotype is adapted to different thermal environments as ecogeographical patterns have reported previously. This report provides support for the recent hypothesis that the heightened thermal strain associated with prolonged physical activity in hot/cold environments may have driven the emergence of thermally adaptive phenotypes in our evolutionary past. These results also tentatively suggest that the relationship between morphology and performance may be stronger in female vs. male athletes. This potential sex difference is discussed with reference to the evolved unique energetic context of human female reproduction. Further work, with a larger sample size, is required to investigate the observed potential sex differences in the strength of the relationship between phenotype and performance.

The emphasis on team science in clinical and translational research increases the importance of collaborative biostatisticians (CBs) in healthcare. Adequate training and development of CBs ensure appropriate conduct of robust and meaningful research and, therefore, should be considered as a high-priority focus for biostatistics groups. Comprehensive training enhances clinical and translational research by facilitating more productive and efficient collaborations. While many graduate programs in Biostatistics and Epidemiology include training in research collaboration, it is often limited in scope and duration. Therefore, additional training is often required once a CB is hired into a full-time position. This article presents a comprehensive CB training strategy that can be adapted to any collaborative biostatistics group. This strategy follows a roadmap of the biostatistics collaboration process, which is also presented. A TIE approach (Teach the necessary skills, monitor the Implementation of these skills, and Evaluate the proficiency of these skills) was developed to support the adoption of key principles. The training strategy also incorporates a “train the trainer” approach to enable CBs who have successfully completed training to train new staff or faculty.

The detection of fireballs streaks in astronomical imagery can be carried out by a variety of methods. The Desert Fireball Network uses a network of cameras to track and triangulate incoming fireballs to recover meteorites with orbits and to build a fireball orbital dataset. Fireball detection is done on-board camera, but due to the design constraints imposed by remote deployment, the cameras are limited in processing power and time. We describe the processing software used for fireball detection under these constrained circumstances. Two different approaches were compared: (1) A single-layer neural network with 10 hidden units that were trained using manually selected fireballs and (2) a more traditional computational approach based on cascading steps of increasing complexity, whereby computationally simple filters are used to discard uninteresting portions of the images, allowing for more computationally expensive analysis of the remainder. Both approaches allowed a full night’s worth of data (over a thousand 36-megapixel images) to be processed each day using a low-power single-board computer. We distinguish between large (likely meteorite-dropping) fireballs and smaller fainter ones (typical ‘shooting stars’). Traditional processing and neural network algorithms both performed well on large fireballs within an approximately 30 000-image dataset, with a true positive detection rate of 96% and 100%, respectively, but the neural network was significantly more successful at smaller fireballs, with rates of 67% and 82%, respectively. However, this improved success came at a cost of significantly more false positives for the neural network results, and additionally the neural network does not produce precise fireball coordinates within an image (as it classifies). Simple consideration of the network geometry indicates that overall detection rate for triangulated large fireballs is calculated to be better than 99.7% and 99.9%, by ensuring that there are multiple double-station opportunities to detect any one fireball. As such, both algorithms are considered sufficient for meteor-dropping fireball event detection, with some consideration of the acceptable number of false positives compared to sensitivity.

Corpora have given rise to a wide range of lexicographic resources aimed at helping novice users of academic English with their writing. This includes academic vocabulary lists, a variety of textbooks, and even a bespoke academic English dictionary. However, writers may not be familiar with these resources or may not be sufficiently aware of the lexical shortcomings of their emerging texts to trigger the need to use such help in the first place. Moreover, writers who have to stop writing to look up a word can be distracted from getting their ideas down on paper. The ColloCaid project (www.collocaid.uk) aims to address these problems by integrating information on collocation with text editors. In this paper, we share the research underpinning the initial development of ColloCaid by detailing the rationale of (1) the lexicographic database we are compiling to support the collocation needs of novice users of English for Academic Purposes (EAP) and (2) the preliminary visualisation decisions taken to present information on collocation to EAP users without disrupting their writing. We conclude the paper by outlining the next steps in the research.

Pressure-driven laminar and turbulent flow in a horizontal partially filled pipe was investigated using stereoscopic particle imaging velocimetry (S-PIV) in the cross-stream plane. Laminar flow velocity measurements are in excellent agreement with a recent theoretical solution in the literature. For turbulent flow, the flow depth was varied independently of a nominally constant Reynolds number (based on hydraulic diameter, $D_{H}$; bulk velocity, $U_{b}$ and kinematic viscosity $\unicode[STIX]{x1D708}$) of $Re_{H}=U_{b}D_{H}/\unicode[STIX]{x1D708}\approx 30\,000\pm 5\,\%$. When running partially full, the inferred friction factor is no longer a simple function of Reynolds number, but also depends on the Froude number $Fr=U_{b}/\sqrt{gD_{m}}$ where $g$ is gravitational acceleration and $D_{m}$ is hydraulic mean depth. S-PIV measurements in turbulent flow reveal the presence of secondary currents which causes the maximum streamwise velocity to occur below the free surface consistent with results reported in the literature for rectangular cross-section open channel flows. Unlike square duct and rectangular open channel flow the mean secondary motion observed here manifests only as a single pair of vortices mirrored about the vertical bisector and these rollers, which fill the half-width of the pipe, remain at a constant distance from the free surface even with decreasing flow depth for the range of depths tested. Spatial distributions of streamwise Reynolds normal stress and turbulent kinetic energy exhibit preferential arrangement rather than having the same profile around the azimuth of the pipe as in a full pipe flow. Instantaneous fields reveal the signatures of elements of canonical wall-bounded turbulent flows near the pipe wall such as large-scale and very-large-scale motions and associated hairpin packets whilst near the free surface, the signatures of free surface turbulence in the absence of imposed mean shear such as ‘upwellings’, ‘downdrafts’ and ‘whirlpools’ are present. Two-point spatio-temporal correlations of streamwise velocity fluctuation suggest that the large-scale coherent motions present in full pipe flow persist in partially filled pipes but are compressed and distorted by the presence of the free surface and mean secondary motion.

Metal–insulator–metal (MIM) resonant absorbers comprise a conducting ground plane, a thin dielectric, and thin separated metal top-surface structures. The dielectric SiO2 strongly absorbs near 9 µm wavelength and has correspondingly strong long-wave-infrared (LWIR) dispersion for the refractive index. This dispersion results in multiple absorption resonances spanning the LWIR, which can enhance broad-band sensitivity for LWIR bolometers. Similar considerations apply to silicon nitride Si3N4. TiO2 and AlN have comparatively low dispersion and give simple single LWIR resonances. These dispersion-dependent features for infrared MIM devices are demonstrated by experiment, electrodynamic simulation, and an analytic model based on standing waves.

The Neotoma Paleoecology Database is a community-curated data resource that supports interdisciplinary global change research by enabling broad-scale studies of taxon and community diversity, distributions, and dynamics during the large environmental changes of the past. By consolidating many kinds of data into a common repository, Neotoma lowers costs of paleodata management, makes paleoecological data openly available, and offers a high-quality, curated resource. Neotoma’s distributed scientific governance model is flexible and scalable, with many open pathways for participation by new members, data contributors, stewards, and research communities. The Neotoma data model supports, or can be extended to support, any kind of paleoecological or paleoenvironmental data from sedimentary archives. Data additions to Neotoma are growing and now include >3.8 million observations, >17,000 datasets, and >9200 sites. Dataset types currently include fossil pollen, vertebrates, diatoms, ostracodes, macroinvertebrates, plant macrofossils, insects, testate amoebae, geochronological data, and the recently added organic biomarkers, stable isotopes, and specimen-level data. Multiple avenues exist to obtain Neotoma data, including the Explorer map-based interface, an application programming interface, the neotoma R package, and digital object identifiers. As the volume and variety of scientific data grow, community-curated data resources such as Neotoma have become foundational infrastructure for big data science.

Agri-environmental programs, such as the Environmental Quality Incentives Program, provide payments to livestock and crop producers to generate broadly defined environmental benefits and to help them comply with federal water quality regulations, such as those that require manure nutrients generated on large animal feeding operations to be spread on cropland at no greater than agronomic rates. We couch these policy options in terms of agri-environmental “carrots” and regulatory “sticks,” respectively. The U.S. agricultural sector is likely to respond to these policies in a variety of ways. Simulation analysis suggests that meeting nutrient standards would result in decreased levels of animal production, increased prices for livestock and poultry products, increased levels of crop production, and water quality improvements. However, estimated impacts are not homogeneous across regions. In regions with relatively less cropland per ton of manure produced, the impacts of these policies are more pronounced.