This article compares and evaluates the performance of two main current socialist economic-social models. One is Cuba’s central plan, characterized by large state enterprises that are predominant over the market and private property, with mild market-oriented structural reforms that instead of generating sustainable socioeconomic development have led to two severe economic crises (the current one in 2029-2024), which have dramatically eroded the previous social achievements of the revolution. The other model is the Sino-Vietnamese “socialist market,” typified by small, medium, and some large private enterprises with a strong role in the market, combined with a decentralized plan, a guideline rather than a central plan. In this, the state regulates the economy and controls the largest enterprises. The second model has prompted some of the highest economic growth rates in the world in China and Vietnam and significantly improved their people’s social security. The share of the state sector in gross domestic product has declined substantially in the two Asian economies: in 2019, the proportions were 27 percent in Vietnam and 31 percent in China, compared to 91 percent in Cuba.

The article starts with the question of the comparability of the three countries. In order to answer, similarities among countries are assessed and potential barriers in the comparison are analyzed, concluding that the few existing differences do not impede the comparative exercise.

Next, the article summarizes a history of the reforms and examines, in a comparative manner, the five key economic policies in the three countries: ownership of the means of production (and the role of the market relative to the plan); agrarian reform; industrialization process; employment and unemployment; and monetary and exchange-rate unification. In all these policies, China and Vietnam have advanced considerably more than Cuba.

The core of the article is an assessment of performance based on a selection of the twenty most relevant and comparable indicators (ten economic and ten social). The three countries’ scores are calculated and a ranking is done based on the twenty indicators, leading to a composite average ranking as follows: China is first, followed by Vietnam, and Cuba lagging behind. This result is even more important because, at the time of their revolutions, China and Vietnam were significantly less developed than Cuba, therefore the two Asian countries had to make a significant effort to match and exceed Cuba’s pre-revolutionary situation.

The article discusses potential methodological issues in the comparison. The conclusions summarize the results of the study, recommend reforms for Cuba based on successful Sino-Vietnamese policies, and outline the research agenda for the future. The article is an important contribution to the fields of comparative economics systems, socioeconomic development, social security, methodology, and Latin American studies.

The author has substantially expanded the previous article into a new book that compares and assesses the impact of the two diverse models on social security (pensions, healthcare, and social assistance) in the three countries: Comparing Socialist Models: Economics and Social Security in Cuba, China, and Vietnam (University of Pittsburgh Press, forthcoming April 2025).

Evaluation of Economic-Social Performance of Two Socialist Economic Models: Cuba (Central Plan) and China-Vietnam (Socialist Market) by Carmelo Mesa-Lago

Published as the leading article in LARR Vol. 59 Issue 2, June 2024: 253-273.