The many impacts of climate change including desertification, rising-sea levels, extreme weather events, flooding, and other natural disasters, could lead to mass human displacement over the coming century as more land becomes increasingly uninhabitable for our species. Even over the last few decades the frequency of natural disasters has increased significantly, and this is unlikely to stop any time soon^[1]. Indigenous communities that rely heavily on local ecosystems to sustain themselves, and communities who inhabit islands or coastal regions are disproportionately at risk from these disasters.

In many circumstances the most viable solution to these mounting threats is to relocate to uninhabited regions that are more stable and less disaster-prone. However, mass displacement on this scale is likely to have a significant impact on the people involved. For indigenous people, displacement from their native lands can threaten not only individual livelihoods but also their cultural heritage. Additionally, settling a new region can lead to an immediate reduction in standard of living, a lack of infrastructure, and increased economic vulnerability as a result^[2].

And whilst these cultural and socioeconomic impacts are extremely important to consider, so too are the environmental consequences that follow mass human migration. It is no secret that human activity has major deleterious effects on the natural environment. Practices such as hunting, deforestation and agriculture, just to name a few, can drastically alter landscapes and ecosystems. At particular risk are those regions of biological significance such as areas with high biodiversity or those that contain threatened or endemic species. Indeed, stable, healthy, and productive ecosystems are themselves known to help slow and alleviate the effects of climate change. Therefore, ensuring that mass human displacement into such areas is done as sustainably as possible is crucial not only for preserving our natural heritage but also for slowing the process of further climate change. 

A review article published in the journal Global Sustainability^[3], brings this issue into the spotlight, highlighting the case of the Guna people and how their displacement may in turn threaten the survival of the jaguar (Panthera onca). The Guna are one of the seven indigenous groups of Panama and currently 40% of their approximately 81,000 strong community inhabit 49 islands of the San Blas Archipelago. They originally moved to these islands to escape the insect-borne diseases of the mainland, however, recent natural disasters, weather events, declines in coastal ecosystem productivity, and rising sea levels have made existing on these islands increasingly risky. Relocation back to the mainland may be essential to escape these threats.

However, the mainland region (named Guna Yala), where relocation would be most likely to occur, represents one of the largest strongholds of intact rainforest in Panama and has one of the highest potentials for jaguar conservation in the country. Jaguars are the largest species of big cat in the Americas, they are an apex predator and a keystone species that plays a vital role in controlling prey populations in their ecosystem. These predators are currently considered Near Threatened according to the IUCN Red List, and their population is in decline. Human activity is known to often disproportionately affect large predators negatively such as the jaguar. Land use practices and wildlife conflict in the form of targeted culling or competition for the same prey-resources could pose a significant issue following the relocation of the Guna to the mainland. This in turn could lead to the local extinction of the jaguar and further threaten the species’ long-term survival. Additionally, as a keystone species, the jaguar has a vital role to play in controlling the populations of its prey species and in turn, maintaining the health and productivity of its ecosystem. Loss or removal of top predators can often lead to trophic cascades, where each stage of the food chain is impacted in a knock-on, domino-like effect. Trophic cascades can have dramatic effects on ecosystem structure and the nutrient cycle as primary producers (such as vegetation) can be overgrazed or overexploited by now unregulated numbers of primary consumers (herbivores). A famous example of this phenomenon are the wolves of Yellowstone and their role in regulating deer populations.

The case of the Guna people highlights the importance of considering the myriad of interconnected issues that come with human displacement as a consequence of climate change. Whilst it is vital to preserve the well-being and cultural heritage of the communities involved, it also important to consider the stressors that relocation places on the settled environment. The authors of the review stress the need to develop management plans that not only meet social and cultural needs but that also do not sacrifice environmental and conservation principles in the process. To meet this requirement, relocation plans should consider the restraints of the given ecosystem and landscape in question. The knowledge and traditions of the communities involved will also be extremely valuable when designing these plans. The Guna for instance, have historically maintained low-intensity land use practices and indigenous territories across Panama have played a significant role in conserving biodiversity. Incorporating these traditions along with pre-emptively planning for future changes in the Guna economy could help minimise the ecological footprint of the relocation. And finally, initiatives to reduce wildlife conflict such as training and the provision of appropriate resources, could reduce the impact on the jaguars of Panama.

In a warming world where it is becoming increasingly likely the targets of the Paris climate agreement will not be met, the current predicament faced by the Guna people is unlikely to be an isolated one. Plans that can successfully ensure the safe relocation of displaced communities that also focus on maintaining environmental and conservation standards in the regions being settled, will be increasingly vital to ensure a sustainable response to climate driven displacement in the future.

References

1. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Human Cost of Disasters 2000-2019. https://www.undrr.org/publication/human-cost-disasters-2000-2019
2. Raleigh, C., & Jordan, L. (2010). Climate change and migration: emerging patterns in the developing world. In Mearns, R., & Norton, A. (Eds.), Chapter 4 in Social dimensions of climate change: Equity and vulnerability in a warming world (pp. 103–131). World Bank.
3. Craighead, K., & Yacelga, M. (2021). Indigenous peoples’ displacement and jaguar survival in a warming planet. Global Sustainability, 4, E7. doi:10.1017/sus.2021.6
   

Image – The threatened jaguar (P. onca). Photo credit: S. Kennerknecht.

Author:

Joe Minus is a PhD student on the London NERC DTP for Environmental Science and is particularly interested in animal phylogenetics, evolutionary biology, and conservation. Having been brought up on many spectacular wildlife documentaries, he hopes to bring the same spark of excitement and outreach to his own work and the important research of others being done every day.