The paper “Global corn area from 1960 to 2030: patterns, trends, and implications“, published in The Journal of Agricultural Science, has been chosen as the latest Editorial Highlight and is freely available to download for one month.

Corn (Zea mays L.) is one of the world’s most vital crops, supporting food security, livestock feed, and biofuel industries. Since 1960, the global corn harvested area has undergone significant transformations driven by technological advances, economic shifts, and environmental constraints. In our recent study, Global Corn Area from 1960 to 2030: Patterns, Trends, and Implications, we analyzed over 60 years of data and used 1,000 ARIMA models to project future trends, providing critical insights for policymakers, researchers, and the agricultural sector.

Key Findings: Past Trends and Future Projections

From 1960 to 2024, the global corn harvested area expanded at varying rates. The early decades saw steady growth, reaching 2.1% in the 2000s. However, recent years (2020-2024) have indicated a stagnation at 0.0%, signaling a potential stabilization phase.

Our projections for 2025-2030 reveal three possible scenarios:

• Optimistic Growth (37% likelihood): Corn area could increase by 1.5% annually, reaching 220.7 million hectares by 2030.
• Moderate Growth (33% likelihood): A slight increase of 0.3% per year could lead to 207.2 million hectares.
• Stable or Declining Trend (30% likelihood): The corn area may remain constant or decrease slightly due to environmental and economic pressures.

Regional Insights: Global Variations in Corn Expansion

China and the United States: Contrasting Futures

China, a leading producer, is expected to continue expanding, with a projected annual growth rate of 2.0%. In contrast, the U.S. shows a neutral outlook, with its corn area stabilizing at a 0.7% annual increase.

Brazil: A Powerhouse of Growth

Brazil’s agricultural expansion remains remarkable, with a projected annual growth of 3.8%, largely driven by the rise of Safrinha (second-season corn). By 2030, Brazil’s corn area could reach nearly 30 million hectares.

Europe and Mexico: Challenges Ahead

The European Union faces uncertainty, with a 60% likelihood of modest growth but a significant risk of decline. Similarly, Mexico is expected to either remain stable or decline by 2.2% annually, highlighting challenges in land use and productivity.

Ukraine: A Nation at a Crossroads

Ukraine, despite its agricultural potential, faces volatility. While one scenario predicts a steady recovery (+1.3% annually), geopolitical uncertainties could lead to drastic reductions in corn area.

Implications for Food Security and Sustainability

With global population growth and rising demand for corn, maintaining a sustainable production system is crucial. While certain regions like Brazil and China are poised for expansion, factors such as climate change, geopolitical instability, and land constraints may influence future growth. Our study underscores the need for strategic agricultural planning, investment in sustainable practices, and technological innovations to enhance productivity without excessive land expansion.

Looking Forward

The future of global corn production hinges on informed decision-making. By leveraging predictive models and data-driven strategies, stakeholders can better navigate uncertainties, ensuring a stable and resilient agricultural sector.

The Journal of Agricultural Science Editorial Highlights are selected by the Editor-in-Chief and are freely available for one month. View the recent selections here.