Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Foreword, Preface and Dedication
- Contents
- Summary for Policymakers
- Technical Summary
- Chapters
- Chapter 1 Introduction
- Chapter 2 Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
- Chapter 3 Observations: Ocean Pages
- Chapter 4 Observations: Cryosphere
- Chapter 5 Information from Paleoclimate Archives
- Chapter 6 Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
- Chapter 7 Clouds and Aerosols
- Chapter 8 Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing
- Chapter 9 Evaluation of Climate Models
- Chapter 10 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
- Chapter 11 Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
- Chapter 12 Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Pages 1029 to 1076
- Chapter 13 Sea Level Change
- Chapter 14 Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
- Annexes
- Index
Chapter 11 - Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 June 2014
- Frontmatter
- Foreword, Preface and Dedication
- Contents
- Summary for Policymakers
- Technical Summary
- Chapters
- Chapter 1 Introduction
- Chapter 2 Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
- Chapter 3 Observations: Ocean Pages
- Chapter 4 Observations: Cryosphere
- Chapter 5 Information from Paleoclimate Archives
- Chapter 6 Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
- Chapter 7 Clouds and Aerosols
- Chapter 8 Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing
- Chapter 9 Evaluation of Climate Models
- Chapter 10 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
- Chapter 11 Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
- Chapter 12 Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Pages 1029 to 1076
- Chapter 13 Sea Level Change
- Chapter 14 Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
- Annexes
- Index
Summary
Executive Summary
This chapter assesses the scientific literature describing expectations for near-term climate (present through mid-century). Unless otherwise stated, ‘near-term’ change and the projected changes below are for the period 2016–2035 relative to the reference period 1986–2005. Atmospheric composition (apart from CO2; see Chapter 12) and air quality projections through to 2100 are also assessed.
Decadal Prediction
The nonlinear and chaotic nature of the climate system imposes natual limits on the extent to which skilful predictions of climate statistics may be made. Model-based ‘predictability’ studies, which probe these limits and investigate the physical mechanisms involved, support the potential for the skilful prediction of annual to decadal average temperature and, to a lesser extent precipitation.
Predictions for averages of temperature, over large regions of the planet and for the global mean, exhibit positive skill when verified against observations for forecast periods up to ten years (high confidence). Predictions of precipitation over some land areas also exhibit positive skill. Decadal prediction is a new endeavour in climate science. The level of quality for climate predictions of annual to decadal average quantities is assessed from the past performance of initialized predictions and non-initialized simulations. {11.2.3, Figures 11.3 and 11.4}
In current results, observation-based initialization is the dominant contributor to the skill of predictions of annual mean temperature for the first few years and to the skill of predictions of the global mean surface temperature and the temperature over the North Atlantic, regions of the South Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean for longer periods (high confidence).
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- Information
- Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science BasisWorking Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 953 - 1028Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2014
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