Skip to main content
×
Home
Evidence, Decision and Causality
  • Get access
    Check if you have access via personal or institutional login
  • Cited by 5
  • Cited by
    This book has been cited by the following publications. This list is generated based on data provided by CrossRef.

    Bangu, Sorin 2016. Scientific explanation and understanding: unificationism reconsidered. European Journal for Philosophy of Science,


    Elliott, Edward 2016. Probabilism, Representation Theorems, and Whether Deliberation Crowds Out Prediction. Erkenntnis,


    Pérez Carballo, Alejandro 2016. Rationality & Second-Order Preferences. Noûs,


    Walker, Mark Thomas 2015. Rejoinder to Bermúdez on Lewis, Newcomb’s Problem and the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Philosophia, Vol. 43, Issue. 3, p. 795.


    Ahmed, Arif and Caulton, Adam 2014. Causal Decision Theory and EPR correlations. Synthese, Vol. 191, Issue. 18, p. 4315.


    ×
  • Export citation
  • Recommend to librarian
  • Recommend this book

    Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this book to your organisation's collection.

    Evidence, Decision and Causality
    • Online ISBN: 9781139107990
    • Book DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139107990
    Please enter your name
    Please enter a valid email address
    Who would you like to send this to? *
    ×
  • Buy the print book

Book description

Most philosophers agree that causal knowledge is essential to decision-making: agents should choose from the available options those that probably cause the outcomes that they want. This book argues against this theory and in favour of evidential or Bayesian decision theory, which emphasises the symptomatic value of options over their causal role. It examines a variety of settings, including economic theory, quantum mechanics and philosophical thought-experiments, where causal knowledge seems to make a practical difference. The arguments make novel use of machinery from other areas of philosophical inquiry, including first-person epistemology and the free will debate. The book also illustrates the applicability of decision theory itself to questions about the direction of time and the special epistemic status of agents.

Reviews

'… Ahmed's book on the debate between EDT and CDT is a very welcome addition to the literature in decision theory. It is a very subtle and finely crafted review of the principal points pertinent to an adjudication of the debate. Both sides of the debate have much to learn from Ahmed's precise formulation and thorough assessment of these points. He casts old arguments in new light and constructs new arguments with great ingenuity to produce a spirited defense of EDT. I heartily recommend this book to all decision theorists.'

Paul Weirich Source: Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews

    • Aa
    • Aa
Refine List
Actions for selected content:
Select all | Deselect all
  • View selected items
  • Export citations
  • Download PDF (zip)
  • Send to Kindle
  • Send to Dropbox
  • Send to Google Drive
  • Send content to

    To send content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about sending content to .

    To send content to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

    Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

    Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

    Please be advised that item(s) you selected are not available.
    You are about to send:
    ×

Save Search

You can save your searches here and later view and run them again in "My saved searches".

Please provide a title, maximum of 40 characters.
×

This list contains references from the content that can be linked to their source. For a full set of references and notes please see the PDF or HTML where available.


A. Ahmed 2005. Evidential decision theory and medical Newcomb problems. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 56: 191–8.

A. Ahmed 2013. Causal Decision Theory: a counterexample. Philosophical Review 122: 289–306.

M. Allais 1953. Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque: Critique des postulats et axiomes de l’école Américaine. Econometrica 21: 503–46.

H. E. Allison 1990. Kant's Theory of Freedom. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

J. J. Arnett 2000. Optimistic bias in adolescent and adult smokers and nonsmokers. Addictive Behaviours 25: 625–32.

F. Arntzenius 2008. No regrets, or: Edith Piaf revamps decision theory. Erkenntnis 68: 277–97.

F. Arntzenius , A. Elga and J. Hawthorne . 2004. Bayesianism, infinite decisions and binding. Mind 113: 251–83.

A. J. Ayer 1963. Fatalism. In his Concept of a Person and Other Essays. London: Macmillan: 235–68.

K. Bach 1987. Newcomb's problem: the $1,000,000 solution. Canadian Journal of Philosophy 17: 409–25.

H. Beebee 2003. Local miracle compatibilism. Noûs 37: 258–77.

H. Beebee and D. Papineau . 1997. Probability as a guide to life. Journal of Philosophy 94: 217–43. Reprinted in D. Papineau, The Roots of Reason. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003: 130–66.

J. S. Bell 1990. La nouvelle cuisine. In A. Sarlemijn and P. Kroes (eds.), Between Science and Technology. Amsterdam: Elsevier: 97–115. Reprinted in Speakable and Unspeakable in Quantum Mechanics. Revised edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004: 323–48.

J. Bennett 2003. A Philosophical Guide to Conditionals. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

J. L. Bermudez 2013. Prisoner's dilemma and Newcomb's problem: why Lewis's argument fails. Analysis 73: 423–9.

M. Black 1956. Why cannot an effect precede its cause? Analysis 16: 49–58.

G. Blaylock 2010. The EPR paradox, Bell's inequality, and the question of locality. American Journal of Physics 78: 111–20.

H. Bok 1998. Freedom and Responsibility. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

E. Bolker 1967. A simultaneous axiomatization of utility and subjective probability. Philosophy of Science 34: 333–40.

J. Broome 1989. An economic Newcomb problem. Analysis 49: 220–2.

J. Broome 1992. Review of McClennen, Rationality and Dynamic Choice: Foundational Explorations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990. Ethics 102: 666–8.

J. Butterfield 1992a. Bell's theorem: what it takes. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 43: 41–83.

J. Butterfield 1992b. David Lewis meets John Bell. Philosophy of Science 59: 26–42.

J. Cantwell 2013. Conditionals in causal decision theory. Synthese 190: 661–79.

N. Cartwright 1979. Causal laws and effective strategies. Noûs 13: 419–37.

N. Cartwright 1999. Causal diversity and the Markov condition. Synthese 121: 3–127.

E. Cavalcanti 2010. Causation, decision theory and Bell's theorem: a quantum analogue of the Newcomb problem. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 61: 569–97.

D. Christensen 2004. Putting Logic in Its Place. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

F. Chu and J. Y. Halpern . 2004. Great expectations. Part II: generalized expected utility as a universal decision rule. Artificial Intelligence 159: 207–29.

J. F. Clauser , M. A. Horne , A. Shimony and R. A. Holt . 1969. Proposed experiment to test local hidden-variable theories. Physical Review Letters 23: 880–4.

W. L. Craig 1987. Divine foreknowledge and Newcomb's paradox. Philosophia 17: 331–50.

T. Dougherty 2011. On whether to prefer pain to pass. Ethics 121: 521–37.

M. A. E. Dummett 1959. Truth. Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 59: 141–62. Reprinted in his Truth and Other Enigmas. London: Duckworth, 1978: 1–24.

M. A. E. Dummett 1964. Bringing about the past. Philosophical Review 73: 338–59. Reprinted in Truth and Other Enigmas. London: Duckworth, 1978: 333–50.

M. A. E. Dummett 1987. Reply to D. H. Mellor . In B. Taylor (ed.), Michael Dummett: Contributions to Philosophy. Dordrecht: Martinus Nijhoff: 287–98.

D. Edgington 1995. On conditionals. Mind 104: 235–329.

D. Edgington 2011. Conditionals, causation and decision. Analytic Philosophy 52: 75–87.

E. Eells 1982. Rational Decision and Causality. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

A. Egan 2007. Some counterexamples to Causal Decision Theory. Philosophical Review 116: 93–114.

A. Elga 2007. Reflection and disagreement. Noûs 41: 478–502.

M. N. Forster 2010. Wittgenstein on family resemblance concepts. In A. Ahmed (ed.), Wittgenstein's ‘Philosophical Investigations’: A Critical Guide. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press: 66–87.

M. Gardner 1974. Mathematical games. Scientific American 230: 102–9.

A. Gibbard 1992. Weakly self-ratifying strategies: comments on McClennen. Philosophical Studies 65: 217–25.

A. Gibbard and W. L. Harper . 1978. Counterfactuals and two kinds of expected utility. In C. Hooker , J. Leach and E. McClennen (eds.), Foundations and Applications of Decision Theory. Dordrecht: Riedel: 125–62. Reprinted in P. Gärdenfors and N.-E. Sahlin (eds.), Decision, Probability and Utility. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988: 341–76.

I. Gilboa 2009. Theory of Decision under Uncertainty. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

I. Gilboa and D. Schmeidler . 1989. Maxmin expected utility with a non-unique prior. Journal of Mathematical Economics 18: 141–53.

R. Grafstein 1991. An evidential decision theory of turnout. American Journal of Political Science 35: 989–1010.

R. Grafstein 1999. Choice-Free Rationality: A Positive Theory of Political Behaviour. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

H. Greaves 2004. Understanding Deutsch's probability in a deterministic multiverse. Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38: 120–52.

H. Greaves 2007. Probability in the Everett interpretation. Philosophy Compass 2: 109–28.

A. Hájek 2003. What conditional probability could not be. Synthese 137: 273–323.

P. Hammond 1988. Consequentialist foundations for expected utility theory. Theory and Decision 25: 25–78.

D. Hausman 1999. Lessons from quantum mechanics. Synthese 121: 79–92.

B. Hedden 2012. Options and the subjective ought. Philosophical Studies 158: 343–60.

C. Hitchcock 1996. Causal decision theory and decision-theoretic causality. Noûs 30: 508–26.

T. Horgan 1981. Counterfactuals and Newcomb's problem. Journal of Philosophy 78: 331–56.

D. Hubin and G. Ross . 1985. Newcomb's perfect predictor. Noûs 19: 439–46.

D. Hume 1975 [1777]. Enquiries Concerning Human Understanding and Concerning the Principles of Morals. Ed. L. A. Selby-Bigge . Oxford: Clarendon Press.

J. P. Jarrett 1984. On the physical significance of the locality conditions in the Bell arguments. Noûs 18: 569–89.

J. Joyce 1999. Foundations of Causal Decision Theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

J. Joyce 2002. Levi on Causal Decision Theory and the possibility of predicting one's own actions. Philosophical Studies 110: 69–102.

J. Joyce 2007. Are Newcomb problems really decisions? Synthese 156: 537–62.

J. Joyce 2012. Regret and instability in Causal Decision Theory. Synthese 187: 123–45.

R. Koestner , G. F. Losier , N. M. Worren , L. Baker and R. J. Vallerand . 1995. False consensus effects for the 1992 Canadian referendum. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science 27: 214–25.

R. E. Knox and J. A. Inkster . 1998. Postdecision dissonance at post time. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 8: 319–23.

C. H. Kraft , J. W. Pratt and A. Seidenberg . 1959. Intuitive probability on finite sets. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 30: 408–19.

D. M. Kreps 1990. Game Theory and Economic Modelling. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

J. Krueger and J. S. Zeiger . 1993. Social categorization and the truly false consensus effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 65: 670–80.

F. E. Kydland and E. C. Prescott . 1977. Rules rather than discretion: the inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy 85: 473–91.

S. Leeds 1984. Eells and Jeffrey on Newcomb's problem. Philosophical Studies 46: 97–107.

I. Levi 1975. Newcomb's many problems. Theory and Decision 6: 161–75.

I. Levi 1986. Hard Choices. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

D. K. Lewis 1973a. Causation. Journal of Philosophy 70: 556–67. Reprinted in his Philosophical Papers vol. 2 Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1986: 159–213.

D. K. Lewis 1979a. Counterfactual dependence and time's arrow. Noûs 13: 455–76. Reprinted in his Philosophical Papers vol. 2. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1986: 32–66.

D. K. Lewis 1981a. Are we free to break the laws? Theoria 47: 113–21. Reprinted in his Philosophical Papers vol. 2. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1986: 291–8.

D. K. Lewis 1981b. Causal decision theory. Australasian Journal of Philosophy 59: 5–30. Reprinted in his Philosophical Papers vol. 2. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1986: 305–39.

D. K. Lewis 1981c. Why ain'cha rich? Noûs 15: 277–80. Reprinted in his Papers in Ethics and Social Philosophy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000: 37–41.

D. K. Lewis 1983. Levi against U-maximization. Journal of Philosophy 80: 531–4.

E. F. McClennen 1990. Rationality and Dynamic Choice: Foundational Explorations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

P. K. McKay 2007. Freedom, fiction and Evidential Decision Theory. Erkenntnis 66: 393–407.

J. L. Mackie 1980. The Cement of the Universe. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

P. Maher 1990. Symptomatic acts and the value of evidence in Causal Decision Theory. Philosophy of Science 57: 479–98.

P. Maher 1992. Diachronic rationality. Philosophy of Science 59: 120–41.

P. Maher 1993. Betting on Theories. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

T. Maudlin 2002. Quantum Non-locality and Relativity. Oxford: Blackwell.

C. Meacham 2010. Binding and its consequences. Philosophical Studies 149: 49–71.

C. Meek and C. Glymour . 1994. Conditioning and intervening. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 45: 1001–21.

D. H. Mellor 1983. Objective decision making. Social Theory and Practice 9: 289–309. Reprinted in his Matters of Metaphysics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991: 269–87.

D. H. Mellor 1987. Fixed past, unfixed future. In B. Taylor (ed.), Michael Dummett: Contributions to Philosophy. Dordrecht: Martinus Nijhoff: 166–84.

P. Menzies and H. Price . 1993. Causation as a secondary quality. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 44: 187–203.

N. Mermin 1981. Quantum mysteries for anyone. Journal of Philosophy 78: 397–408.

W. Muckenheim 1982. A resolution of the Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen paradox. Lettere al Nuovo Cimento 35: 300–4.

B. Mullen , J. L. Atkins , D. S. Champion , C. Edwards , D. Hardy and J. E. Story . 1985. The false consensus effect: a meta-analysis of 115 hypothesis tests. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 21: 262–83.

J. F. Muth 1961. Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica 29: 315–35.

R. Nozick 1969. Newcomb's problem and two principles of choice. In N. Rescher (ed.), Essays in Honor of Carl G. Hempel. Dordrecht: D. Reidel: 114–46. Reprinted in P. Moser (ed.), Rationality in Action: Contemporary Approaches. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990: 207–34.

M. Peterson 2009. An Introduction to Decision Theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

J. L. Pollock 2010. A resource-bounded agent addresses the Newcomb problem. Synthese 176: 57–82.

H. Price 1986a. Against Causal Decision Theory. Synthese 67: 195–212.

H. Price 1991. Agency and probabilistic causality. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 42: 157–76.

H. Price 2010. Decisions, decisions, decisions: can Savage salvage Everettian probability? In S. Saunders , J. Barrett , A. Kent and D. Wallace (eds.), Many Worlds? Everett, Quantum Theory and Reality. Oxford: Oxford University Press: 369–90.

H. Price 2012. Causation, chance, and the rational significance of supernatural evidence. Philosophical Review 121: 483–538.

W. V. Quine 1981. What price bivalence? Journal of Philosophy 78: 90–5. Reprinted in his Theories and Things. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press 1981: 31–7.

W. Rabinowicz 2000. Money pump with foresight. In M. J. Almeida (ed.), Imperceptible Harms and Benefits. Dordrecht: Kluwer: 123–54.

W. Rabinowicz 2002. Does practical deliberation crowd out self-prediction? Erkenntnis 57: 91–122.

T. Reid 2001 [1792]. Of power. Philosophical Quarterly 51: 1–12.

W. H. Riker and P. C. Ordeshook . 1968. A theory of the calculus of voting. American Political Science Review 62: 25–43.

D. Rosen 1978. In defense of a probabilistic theory of causality. Philosophy of Science 45: 604–13.

L. Ross , D. Greene and P. House . 1977. The ‘false consensus effect’: an egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 13: 279–301.

B. A. W. Russell 1913. On the notion of cause. Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 13: 1–26.

E. Shafir and A. Tversky . 1992. Thinking through uncertainty: nonconsequential reasoning and choice. Cognitive Psychology 24: 449–74.

S. Shafir , T. Reich , E. Tsur , I. Erev and A. Lotem . 2008. Perceptual accuracy and conflicting effects of certainty on risk-taking behaviour. Nature 453: 917–20.

B. Skyrms 1982. Causal Decision Theory. Journal of Philosophy 79: 695–711.

B. Skyrms 1984a. EPR: Lessons for metaphysics. Midwest Studies in Philosophy 9: 245–55.

S. Sloman 2005. Causal Models. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

J. H. Sobel 1986. Notes on decision theory. Australasian Journal of Philosophy 64: 407–37. Reprinted in his Taking Chances. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994: 141–73.

J. H. Sobel 1988. Infallible predictors. Philosophical Review 97: 3–24. Reprinted in his Taking Chances. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994: 100–18.

J. H. Sobel 1990. Newcomblike problems. Midwest Studies in Philosophy 15: 224–55. Reprinted in his Taking Chances. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994: 31–76.

R. Stalnaker 1980 [1972]. Letter to David Lewis. In W. L. Harper , R. Stalnaker and G. Pearce (eds.), Ifs: Conditionals, Belief, Decision, Chance, and Time. Dordrecht: D. Reidel: 151–2.

R. H. Strotz 1955. Myopia and inconsistency in dynamic utility maximization. Review of Economic Studies 23: 165–80.

B. C. Van Fraassen 1991. Quantum Mechanics: An Empiricist View. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

B. Verbeek 2008. Consequentialism and rational choice: lessons from the Allais paradox. Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 89: 86–116.

D. Wallace 2007. Quantum probability from subjective likelihood: improving on Deutsch's proof of the probability rule. Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 34: 415–39.

P. Weirich 1998. Equilibrium and Rationality: Game Theory Revised by Decision Rules. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

P. Weirich 2001. Decision Space: Multidimensional Utility Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

J. Williamson 2008. Objective Bayesian probabilistic logic. Journal of Algorithms 63: 167–83.

T. Williamson 2007. The Philosophy of Philosophy. Oxford: Blackwell.

S. Wolfson 2000. Students’ estimates for the prevalence of drug use: evidence for a false consensus effect. Psychology of Addictive Behaviours 14: 295–8.

D. H. Wolpert and G. Benford . 2013. The lesson of Newcomb's paradox. Synthese 190: 1637–46.

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 12
Total number of PDF views: 106 *
Loading metrics...

Book summary page views

Total views: 102 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between September 2016 - 28th June 2017. This data will be updated every 24 hours.