Managing Economic Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's Guide

doi:10.1017/CBO9780511510755

Economic volatility has come into its own after being treated for decades as a secondary phenomenon in the business cycle literature. This evolution has been driven by the recognition that non-linearities, long buried by the economist's penchant for linearity, magnify the negative effects of volatility on long-run growth and inequality, especially in poor countries. This collection organizes empirical and policy results for economists and development policy practitioners into four parts: basic features, including the impact of volatility on growth and poverty; commodity price volatility; the financial sector's dual role as an absorber and amplifier of shocks; and the management and prevention of macroeconomic crises. The latter section includes a cross-country study, case studies on Argentina and Russia, and lessons from the debt default episodes of the 1980s and 1990s.

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-vi
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Contents
pp vii-viii
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Contributors
pp ix-x
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Acknowledgments
pp xi-xii
- By Joshua Aizenman, Professor of Economics University of California, Santa Cruz, Brian Pinto, Economic Adviser, The Economic Policy and Debt Department, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Anchor, The World Bank, Washington, DC
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Foreword
pp xiii-xvi
- By Robert P. Flood, Jr., Editor, IMF Staff Papers International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.
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MANAGING ECONOMIC VOLATILITY AND CRISES
pp xvii-xviii
A Practitioner's Guide
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Overview
pp 1-44
- By Joshua Aizenman, Professor of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz, Brian Pinto, Economic Adviser, The Economic Policy and Debt Department, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Anchor, The World Bank, Washington, DC
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PART I - WHAT IS VOLATILITY AND WHY DOES IT MATTER?
- By Joshua Aizenman, Professor of Economics University of California, Santa Cruz, Brian Pinto, Economic Adviser The Economic Policy and Debt Department, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Anchor, The World Bank, Washington, DC
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1 - Volatility: Definitions and Consequences
pp 45-64
- By Holger Wolf, Associate Professor, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
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2 - Volatility and Growth
pp 65-100
- By Viktoria Hnatkovska, Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Georgetown University, Norman Loayza, Lead Economist Development Research Group, The World Bank
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3 - Volatility, Income Distribution, and Poverty
pp 101-136
- By Thomas Laursen, Lead Economist Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Department, Europe and Central Asia Region, The World Bank, Sandeep Mahajan, Senior Economist Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Department, South Asia Region, The World Bank
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PART II - COMMODITY PRICES AND VOLATILITY
- By Joshua Aizenman, Professor of Economics University of California, Santa Cruz, Brian Pinto, Economic Adviser The Economic Policy and Debt Department, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Anchor, The World Bank, Washington, DC
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4 - Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility
pp 137-185
- By Jan Dehn, Fund Manager, Ashmore Group Limited, London, UK, Christopher L. Gilbert, Professor, GRADE and Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italy; Consultant Agriculture and Rural Development Department, The World Bank, Panos Varangis, Vice President, Greek Agricultural Bank, Athens, Greece
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5 - Managing Oil Booms and Busts in Developing Countries
pp 186-212
- By Julia Devlin, Partnership Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Region, The World Bank, Michael Lewin, Senior Economist Oil, Gas and Mining Policy Division, The World Bank
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PART III - FINANCE AND VOLATILITY
- By Joshua Aizenman, Professor of Economics University of California, Santa Cruz, Brian Pinto, Economic Adviser The Economic Policy and Debt Department, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Anchor, The World Bank, Washington, DC
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6 - Finance and Volatility
pp 213-280
- By Stijn Claessens, Senior Adviser, Financial Sector Operations & Policy, The World Bank; Professor of International Finance Policy, University of Amsterdam
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7 - Evaluating Pricing Signals from the Bond Markets
pp 281-314
- By John J. Merrick, Jr., Richard S. Reynolds, Associate Professor of Business, College of William and Mary
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PART IV - MANAGING CRISES
- By Joshua Aizenman, Professor of Economics University of California, Santa Cruz, Brian Pinto, Economic Adviser The Economic Policy and Debt Department, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Anchor, The World Bank, Washington, DC
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8 - Managing Macroeconomic Crises: Policy Lessons
pp 315-405
- By Jeffrey Frankel, James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Shang-Jin Wei, Chief Trade and Investment Division, Research Department, International Monetary Fund
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9 - Lessons from the Russian Crisis of 1998 and Recovery
pp 406-438
- By Brian Pinto, Economic Adviser Economic Policy & Debt Department, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Anchor, The World Bank, Evsey Gurvich, Head Economic Expert Group, Ministry of Finance of The Russian Federation, Moscow, Sergei Ulatov, Economist Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Department, Europe and Central Asia Region, The World Bank
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10 - Argentina's Macroeconomic Collapse: Causes and Lessons
pp 439-470
- By Luis Servén, Research Manager Development Research Group, The World Bank, Guillermo Perry, Chief Economist Latin America & Caribbean Region, The World Bank
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11 - Default Episodes in the 1980s and 1990s: What Have We Learned?
pp 471-520
- By Punam Chuhan, Lead Economist, Global Monitoring Secretariat, The World Bank, Federico Sturzenegger, Business School, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Argentina; Visiting Professor of Public Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
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Technical Appendix
pp 521-566
- By Viktoria Hnatkovska, Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Georgetown University
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Index
pp 567-595
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Managing Economic Volatility and Crises

A Practitioner's Guide

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-vi

Contents
pp vii-viii

Contributors
pp ix-x

Acknowledgments
pp xi-xii

Foreword
pp xiii-xvi

MANAGING ECONOMIC VOLATILITY AND CRISES
pp xvii-xviii

Overview
pp 1-44

PART I - WHAT IS VOLATILITY AND WHY DOES IT MATTER?

1 - Volatility: Definitions and Consequences
pp 45-64

2 - Volatility and Growth
pp 65-100

3 - Volatility, Income Distribution, and Poverty
pp 101-136

PART II - COMMODITY PRICES AND VOLATILITY

4 - Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility
pp 137-185

5 - Managing Oil Booms and Busts in Developing Countries
pp 186-212

PART III - FINANCE AND VOLATILITY

6 - Finance and Volatility
pp 213-280

7 - Evaluating Pricing Signals from the Bond Markets
pp 281-314

PART IV - MANAGING CRISES

8 - Managing Macroeconomic Crises: Policy Lessons
pp 315-405

9 - Lessons from the Russian Crisis of 1998 and Recovery
pp 406-438

10 - Argentina's Macroeconomic Collapse: Causes and Lessons
pp 439-470

11 - Default Episodes in the 1980s and 1990s: What Have We Learned?
pp 471-520

Technical Appendix
pp 521-566

Index
pp 567-595

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Managing Economic Volatility and Crises

A Practitioner's Guide

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