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    • Publisher:
      Cambridge University Press
      Publication date:
      21 September 2018
      04 October 2018
      ISBN:
      9781108571494
      9781108469005
      DOI:
      https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108571494
      Dimensions:
      Weight & Pages:
      Dimensions:
      (229 x 152 mm)
      Weight & Pages:
      0.16kg, 92 Pages
      • Series:
      Elements in Business Strategy
      Subjects:
      Strategic Management, Management
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    Series:
    Elements in Business Strategy
    Subjects:
    Strategic Management, Management
    Information

    Book description

    This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged here and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined.

    References

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