Aldrich, John, Gelpi, Christopher, Feaver, Peter, Reifler, Jason, and Sharp, Kristin Thompson. 2006. “Foreign Policy and the Electoral Connection.” Annual Review of Political Science 9:477–502.
Allison, Graham T. 1969. “Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” American Political Science Review 63(3):689–718.
Anderson, Martin, and Anderson, Annelise. 2009. Reagan’s Secret War: The Untold Story of His Fight to Save the World from Nuclear Disaster. New York: Crown Publishers.
Ang, Cheng Guan. 2002. The Vietnam War from the Other Side: The Vietnamese Communists’ Perspective. New York: Routledge.
Ang, Cheng Guan. 2004. Ending the Vietnam War: The Vietnamese Communists’ Perspective. New York: Routledge.
Arena, Philip, and Palmer, Glenn. 2009. “Politics or the Economy: Domestic Correlates of Dispute Involvement in Developed Democracies.” International Studies Quarterly 53 (4):955–975.
Asselin, Pierre. 2002. A Bitter Peace: Washington, Hanoi, and the Making of the Paris Agreement. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press.
Asselin, Pierre. 2011. “Revisionism Triumphant: Hanoi’s Diplomatic Strategy in the Nixon Era.” Journal of Cold War Studies 13(4):101–137.
Asselin, Pierre. 2012. “‘We Don’t Want a Munich’: Hanoi’s Diplomatic Strategy, 1965–1968.” Diplomatic History 36(3):547–581.
Baum, Matthew A. 2004. “Going Private: Public Opinion, Presidential Rhetoric, and the Domestic Politics of Audience Costs in U.S. Foreign Policy Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(5):603–631.
Belasco, Amy, Cunningham, Lynn J., Fischer, Hannah, and Niksch, Larry A.. 2007. “Congressional Restrictions on U.S. Military Operations in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Somalia, and Kosovo: Funding and Non-Funding Approaches.” Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, January 16. www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33803.pdf (December 11, 2013).
Beschloss, Michael R. 1991. The Crisis Years: Kennedy and Khrushchev 1960–1963. New York: Edward Burlingame Books.
Brace, Paul, and Hinckley, Barbara. 1992. Follow the Leader: Opinion Polls and the Modern Presidents. New York: Basic Books.
Braumoeller, Bear F. 2004. “Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms.” International Organization 58(4):807–820.
Brooks, Stephen G., and Wohlforth, William C.. 2000/2001. “Power, Globalization, and the End of the Cold War: Reevaluating a Landmark Case for Ideas.” International Security 25(3):5–52.
Brown, Archie. 1996. The Gorbachev Factor. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Morrow, James D., Siverson, Randolph M., and Smith, Alastair. 1999. “An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace.” American Political Science Review 93(4):791–807.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Siverson, Randolph M.. 1995. “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability.” American Political Science Review 89(4):841–855.
Bui, Tin. 2002. From Enemy to Friend: A North Vietnamese Perspective on the War. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press.
Campagna, Anthony S. 1994. The Economy in the Reagan Years: The Economic Consequences of the Reagan Administrations. Westport, CT: Greenwood Publishing Group.
Canes-Wrone, Brandice, and de Marchi, Scott. 2002. “Presidential Approval and Legislative Success.” Journal of Politics 64(2):491–509.
Carroll, Royce, Lewis, Jeff, Lo, James, McCarty, Nolan, Poole, Keith, and Rosenthal, Howard. 2011. “DW-NOMINATE Scores with Bootstrapped Standard Errors.” http://voteview.com/dwnominate.asp (November 15, 2012).
Charles, Elizabeth C. 2015. “Gorbachev and the Decision to Decouple the Arms Control Package: How the Breakdown of the Reykjavik Summit Led to the Elimination of the Euromissiles.” In The Euromissile Crisis and the End of the Cold War, ed. Nuti, Leopoldo, Bozo, Frederic, Rey, Marie-Pierre, and Rother, Bernd. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 66–84.
Carter, Bill. 1994. “Networks Held Back the News That Invasion Planes Were Headed for Haiti.” New York Times, September 20, A12.
Chaudoin, Stephen. 2014. “Promises or Policies? An Experimental Analysis of International Agreements and Audience Reactions.” International Organization 68(1):235–256.
Chernyaev, Anatoly S.  2000. My Six Years with Gorbachev. Trans. English, Robert D. and Tucker, Elizabeth. University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press.
Chiozza, Giacomo. 2017. “Presidents on the Cycle: Elections, Audience Costs, and Coercive Diplomacy.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 34(1):3–26.
Chiozza, Giacomo, and Goemans, H. E.. 2004. “International Conflict and the Tenure of Leaders: Is War Still Ex Post Inefficient?” American Journal of Political Science 48(3):604–619.
Clare, Joe. 2014. “Hawks, Doves, and International Cooperation.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(7):1311–1337.
Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee. 1968. “Report Presented to the 15 Plenum of the Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee.” August 29. History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, Archive of the Party Central Committee, Hanoi. Translated for WIHP by Merle Pribbenow. http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/113979 (May 15, 2015).
Croco, Sarah E. 2011. “The Decider’s Dilemma: Leader Culpability, War Outcomes, and Domestic Punishment.” American Political Science Review 103(3):457–477.
Croco, Sarah E., and Weeks, Jessica L.P.. 2015. “Willing and Able: Culpability, Vulnerability and Leaders’ Sensitivity to War Outcomes.” Working paper.
Dafoe, Allan, Renshon, Jonathan, and Huth, Paul. 2014. “Reputation and Status as Motives for War.” Annual Review of Political Science 17:371–393.
Danilovic, Vesna. 2002. When the Stakes Are High: Deterrence and Conflict among Major Powers. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Debs, Alexandre, and Goemans, H.E.. 2010. “Regime Type, the Fate of Leaders, and War.” American Political Science Review 104:430–445.
Debs, Alexandre, and Weiss, Jessica Chen. 2015. “Circumstances, Domestic Audiences, and Reputational Incentives in International Crisis Bargaining.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 60(30):403–433.
Dobbs, Michael. 2008. One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War. New York: Vintage Books. Paperback edition.
Dobrynin, Anatoly. 1995. In Confidence: Moscow’s Ambassador to America’s Six Cold War Presidents. New York: Times Books. Paperback edition.
Downs, George W., and Rocke, David M.. 1994. “Conflict, Agency, and Gambling for Resurrection: The Principal-Agent Problem Goes to War.” American Journal of Political Science 38(2):362–380.
Downes, Alexander B., and Sechser, Todd S.. 2012. “The Illusion of Democratic Credibility.” International Organization 66(3):457–489.
Doyle, Michael. 1983. “Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs, Part I.” Philosophy and Public Affairs 12(3):205–235.
Drew, Elizabeth. 2007. Richard M. Nixon: The American Presidents Series: The 37th President, 1969–1974. New York: Times Books.
Dueck, Colin. 2010. Hard Line: The Republican Party and US Foreign Policy since World War II. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Duiker, William J. 1996. The Communist Road to Power in Vietnam: Second Edition. Boulder: Westview Press.
Edwards, George C. III. 2003. On Deaf Ears: The Limits of the Bully Pulpit. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
English, Robert D. 2000. Russia and the Idea of the West. New York: Columbia University Press.
Eyerman, Joe, and Hart, Robert A. Jr. 1996. “An Empirical Test of the Audience Cost Proposition: Democracy Speaks Louder than Words.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40(4):597–616.
Fearon, James D. 1994a. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.” American Political Science Review 88(3):577–592.
Fearon, James D. 1994b. “Signaling versus the Balance of Power and Interests: An Empirical Test of a Crisis Bargaining Model.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 38(2):236–269.
Fearon, James D. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49(3): 379–414.
Fearon, James D. 1997. “Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(1):68–90.
Fischer, Beth A. 1997. The Reagan Reversal: Foreign Policy and the End of the Cold War. Columbia, MO: University of Missouri Press.
Frankel, Max. 2004. High Noon in the Cold War: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: Ballantine Books.
Fursenko, Aleksandr, and Naftali, Timothy. 1997. One Hell of a Gamble: Khrushchev, Castro, and Kennedy, 1958–1964. New York: W. W. Norton & Company. Paperback edition.
Fursenko, Aleksandr, and Naftali, Timothy. 2006. Khrushchev’s Cold War: The Inside Story of an American Adversary. New York: W. W. Norton & Company. Paperback edition.
Garthoff, Raymond L. 1994. The Great Transition: American-Soviet Relations and the End of the Cold War. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.
Gearan, Anne. 2012. “Netanyahu Calls for a ‘Red Line’ to Stop Iran from Developing Weapon.” Washington Post, September 28, A4.
Gelpi, Christopher F. 1997. “Crime and Punishment: The Role of Norms in Crisis Bargaining.” American Political Science Review 91(2):339–360.
Gelpi, Christopher F., and Griesdorf, Michael. 2001. “Winners or Losers? Democracies in International Crisis, 1918–94.” American Political Science Review 95:633–647.
George, Lloyd. 1911. “Speech on the International Situation Delivered at the Mansion House, July 21, 1911.” In Life of David Lloyd George: Volume IV Speechs, ed. Du Parcq, Herbert. London: Caxton Publishing Company, 789–792. Available https://archive.org/details/lifeofdavidlloyd04dupauoft (May 30, 2015).
Gibler, Douglas M. 2009. International Military Alliances, 1648–2008. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
Goemans, H.E. 2000. War and Punishment: the Causes of War Termination and the First World War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Golby, James Thomas. 2011. Duty, Honor … Party? Ideology, Institutions, and the Use of Military Force. Dissertation, Stanford University.
Goldstein, Joshua S. 1992. “A Conflict-Cooperation Scale for WEIS Events Data.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36(2):369–385.
Gorbachev, Mikhail.  1997. Memoirs. Trans. Peronansky, Georges and Varsavsky, Tatjana. New York: Bantam Books.
Gottfried, Matthew S., and Trager, Robert F.. 2016. “A Preference for War: How Fairness and Rhetoric Influence Leadership Incentives in Crises.” International Studies Quarterly 60(2):243–257.
Grachev, Andrei. 2008. Gorbachev’s Gamble: Soviet Foreign Policy and the End of the Cold War. Malden, MA: Polity Press.
Graebner, Norman A., Burns, Richard Dean, and Siracusa, Joseph M.. 2008. Reagan, Bush, Gorbachev: Revisiting the End of the Cold War. Westport, CT: Praeger Security International.
Granger, C. W. J. 1969. “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods.” Econometrica 37(3):424–438.
Grimmer, Justin, and Stewart, Brandon M.. 2013. “Text as Data: The Promise and Pitfalls of Automatic Content Analysis Methods for Political Texts.” Political Analysis 21:267–297.
Gromyko, Andrei. 1984. “Information of Comrade A. A. Gromyko on International Questions.” March 28, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, Mongolian Foreign Ministry Archive: fond 2, dans 1, kh/n 489, khuu 46–49. Obtained and translated by Sergey Radchenko. http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/119908 (April 4, 2015).
Gromyko, Andrei. 1989. Memories. Trans. Shukman, Harold. New York: Doubleday.
Guisinger, Alexandra, and Smith, Alastair. 2002. “Honest Threats: The Interaction of Reputation and Political Institutions in International Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(2):75–200.
Haldeman, H.R. 1994. The Haldeman Diaries: Inside the Nixon White House. New York: Berkley Books.
Haldeman, H.R., with DiMona, Joseph. 1978. The Ends of Power. New York: Times Books.
Hanmer, Michael J., and Kalkan, Kerem Ozan. 2013. “Behind the Curve: Clarifying the Best Approach to Calculating Predicted Probabilities and Marginal Effects from Limited Dependent Variable Models.” American Journal of Political Science 57(1):263–277.
Survey, Harris. 1973. January 14–17. Retrieved December 12, 2013 from the iPOLL Databank, The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut.
Survey, Harris. 1983. April. Retrieved December 27, 2013 from the iPOLL Databank, The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut.
Survey, Harris. 1983–1984. Polls between December 1983 and November 1984. Retrieved December 27, 2013 from the iPOLL Databank, The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut.
Haslam, Jonathan. 2011. Russia’s Cold War: From the October Revolution to the Fall of the Wall. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Holloway, David. 2015. “The Dynamics of the Euromissile Crisis, 1977–1983.” In The Euromissile Crisis and the End of the Cold War, ed. Nuti, Leopoldo, Bozo, Frederic, Rey, Marie-Pierre, and Rother, Bernd. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 11–30.
Hook, Steven W., and Spanier, John. 2013. American Foreign Policy since World War II. 19th ed. Los Angeles: Sage Publications.
Horowitz, Michael C., Stam, Allan C., and Ellis, Cali M.. 2015. Why Leaders Fight. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Howell, William G., and Pevehouse, Jon C.. 2007. While Dangers Gather: Congressional Checks on Presidential War Powers. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Hunt, Michael H. 1996. Lyndon Johnson’s War: America’s Cold War Crusade in Vietnam, 1945–1968. New York: Hill and Wang.
Huth, Paul, and Russett, Bruce. 1984. “What Makes Deterrence Work? Cases from 1900 to 1980.” World Politics 36(4):496–526.
Huth, Paul K. 1988. Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Huth, Paul K. 1997. “Reputations and Deterrence: A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment.” Security Studies 7(1):72–99.
Huth, Paul K., and Allee, Todd L.. 2002. The Democratic Peace and Territorial Conflict in the Twentieth Century. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Iacus, Stefano M., King, Gary, and Porro, Giuseppe. 2012. “Causal Inference without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching. Political Analysis 20(1):1–24.
Ignatius, David. 2012. “The ‘Red Line’ Herring.” Washington Post, September 16, A23.
James, Patrick, and Rioux, Jean Sébastien. 1998. “International Crises and Linkage Politics: The Experiences of the United States, 1953–1994.” Political Research Quarterly 51(3):781–812.
Johns, Andrew L. 2010. Vietnam’s Second Front: Domestic Politics, the Republican Party, and the War. Lexington, KY: University Press of Kentucky.
Johnson, Jesse C., Leeds, Brett Ashley, and Wu, Ahra. 2015. “Capability, Credibility, and Extended General Deterrence.” International Interactions 41(2):309–336.
Karnow, Stanley. 1997. Vietnam: A History. New York: Penguin Books.
Kearns, Doris. 1976. Lyndon Johnson and the American Dream. New York: Harper & Row.
Kertzer, Joshua D., and Brutger, Ryan. 2015. “Decomposing Audience Costs: Bringing the Audience Back into Audience Cost Theory.” American Journal of Political Science 60(1):234–249.
Khrushchev, Nikita. 2007. Memoirs of Nikita Khrushchev, Volume 3: Statesman 1953–1964. ed. Khrushchev, Sergei. Trans. Shriver, George. University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press.
Khrushchev, Sergei N. 2000. Nikita Khrushchev and the Creation of a Superpower. Trans. Benson, Shirley. University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press.
Kimball, Jeffrey. 1998. Nixon’s Vietnam War. Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas.
King, Gary, and Lowe, Will. 2003. “An Automated Information Extraction Tool for International Conflict Data with Performance as Good as Human Coders: A Rare Events Evaluation Design.” International Organization 57:617–642.
Koch, Michael T., and Sullivan, Patricia. 2010. “Partisanship, Approval, and the Duration of Major Power Democratic Military Interventions.” Journal of Politics 72(3):616–629.
Krebs, Ronald R. 2015. Narrative and the Making of US National Security. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Kurizaki, Shuhei. 2007. “Efficient Secrecy: Public versus Private Threats in Crisis Diplomacy.” American Political Science Review 101(3):543–558.
Kydd, Andrew H. 2015. International Relations Theory: The Game Theoretic Approach. New York: Cambridge University Press.
LaFeber, Walter. 1994. The American Age: U.S. Foreign Policy at Home and Abroad, 1750 to the Present. New York: W.W. Norton and Company.
Levendusky, Matthew S., and Horowitz, Michael C.. 2012. “When Backing Down Is the Right Decision: Partisanship, New Information, and Audience Costs.” Journal of Politics 74(2):323–338.
Leventoglu, Bahar, and Tarar, Ahmer. 2005. “Prenegotiation Public Commitment in Domestic and International Bargaining.” American Political Science Review 99(3):419–433.
Levy, Jack S. 1989. “The Diversionary Theory of War.” In The Handbook of War Studies, ed. Midlarksy, Manus. Boston: Unwin Hyman, 259–288.
Levy, Jack S., and Mabe, William F. Jr. 2004. “Politically Motivated Opposition to War.” International Studies Review 6(4):65–83.
Luthi, Lorenz M. 2009. “Beyond Betrayal: Beijing, Moscow, and the Paris Negotiations, 1971–1973.” Journal of Cold War Studies 11(1):57–107.
Marshall, Monty G., Jaggers, Keith, and Gurr, Ted Robert. 2010. “Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2010.” www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/inscr.htm (September 6, 2011).
Mastny, Vojtech. 2009. “How Able Was ‘Able Archer’? Nuclear Trigger and Intelligence in Perspective.” Journal of Cold War Studies 11(1):108–123.
Matlock, Jack F Jr. 1995. Autopsy on an Empire: The American Ambassador’s Account of the Collapse of the Soviet Union. New York: Random House.
Matlock, Jack F Jr. 2004. Reagan and Gorbachev: How the Cold War Ended. New York: Random House.
McClelland, Charles A. 1978. World Event/Interaction Survey (WEIS) Project, 1966–1978. Third ICPSR Edition. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.
Mearsheimer, John J. 1983. Conventional Deterrence. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
“Memorandum of Conversation Between Secretary of the Interior Udall and Chairman Khrushchev.” September 6, 1962. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961–1963. Volume XV, Berlin Crisis, 1962–1963, Document 112.
Mercer, Jonathan 1996. Reputation and International Politics. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Milenkoski, Mile, and Talevski, Jove. 2001. “Delineation of the State Border between the Republic of Macedonia and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.” IBRU Boundary and Security Bulletin 9(2):93–98.
Military History Institute of Vietnam. 2002. Victory in Vietnam: The Official History of the People’s Army of Vietnam, 1954–1975. Trans. Pribbenow, Merle L.. Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas.
Miller, Gregory D. 2011. The Shadow of the Past: Reputation and Military Alliances before the First World War. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Miller, Ross A. 2015. “You’ve Got to Know When to Fold ‘Em: International and Domestic Consequences of Capitulation, 1919–1999.” International Interactions 41(4):674–698.
Morgan, Clifton T., Bapat, Navin A., and Kobayashi, Yoshiharu. 2013. Threat and Imposition of Sanctions (TIES) Data 4.0 Users Manual. www.unc.edu/~bapat/TIES.htm (January 21, 2014).
Neuendorf, Kimberly A. 2002. The Content Analysis Guidebook. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Neustadt, Richard E. 1976. Presidential Power: The Politics of Leadership with Reflections on Johnson and Nixon. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Nguyen, Lien-Hang T. 2012. Hanoi’s War: An International History of the War for Peace in Vietnam. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press.
Nixon, Richard. 1978. RN: The Memoirs of Richard Nixon. New York: Simon and Schuster.
Nixon, Richard. 1986. “Memorandum on Conversation with General Secretary Gorbachev at the Kremlin, July 18, 1986.” Richard Nixon Library and Museum, Ronald Reagan Post-Presidential Correspondence Collection.
Ostrom, Charles W. Jr., and Simon, Dennis M.. 1985. “Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity.” American Political Science Review 79(2):334–358.
Palmer, Glenn, D’Orazio, Vito, Kenwick, Michael, and Lane, Matthew. 2015. “The MID4 Dataset, 2002–2010: Procedures, Coding Rules and Description.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 32(2):222–242.
Palmer, Glenn, London, Tamar R., and Regan, Patrick M.. 2004. “What’s Stopping You?: The Sources of Political Constraints on International Conflict Behavior in Parliamentary Democracies.” International Interactions 30(1):1–24.
Parent, Joseph M., and MacDonald, Paul K.. 2011. “The Wisdom of Retrenchment: America Must Cut Back to Move Forward.” Foreign Affairs 90(6):32–47.
Partell, Peter J., and Palmer, Glenn. 1999. “Audience Costs and Interstate Crises: An Empirical Assessment of Fearon’s Model of Dispute Outcomes.” International Studies Quarterly 43(2):389–405.
Paterson, Thomas G., and Brophy, William J.. 1986. “October Missiles and November Elections: The Cuban Missile Crisis and American Politics, 1962.” Journal of American History 73(1):87–119.
Peters, Gerhard, and Woolley, John. 2016. American Presidency Project, University of California, Santa Barbara. www.presidency.ucsb.edu (June 18, 2011–April 26, 2016).
Pipes, Richard. 1977. “Why the Soviet Union Thinks It Could Fight and Win a Nuclear War.” Commentary 64(1):21–34.
Politburo. 1968. “Secret North Vietnam Politburo Cable.” April 8. History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, Archive of the Party Central Committee, Hanoi. Translated for CWIHP by Merle Pribbenow. http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/113978 (May 15, 2015).
Politburo. 1983. “Meeting Minutes of the Politburo of the CC CPSU, Regarding Western Plans for Deployment of New Nuclear Weapons in Europe.” May 31. History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 53, Ll. 1–14. http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/115981 (April 4, 2015).
Politburo. 1986a. “Meeting Minutes of the Politburo of the CC CPSU, Regarding the Aftermath of the Reykjavik US Soviet summit.” October 22. History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, TsKhSD, F. 89, Op. 42, D. 53, Ll. 1–14. http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/115984 (May 1, 2015).
Politburo. 1986b. “USSR CC CPSU Politburo Session on Results of the Reykjavik Summit, October 14, 1986.” In The Reykjavik File: Previously Secret Documents from U.S. and Soviet Archives on the 1986 Reagan-Gorbachev Summit, ed. Savranskaya, Svetlana and Blanton, Thomas. The National Security Archive, George Washington University, Washington DC. http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB203/ (July 4, 2015).
Porter, Gareth. 1975. A Peace Denied: The United States, Vietnam, and the Paris Agreement. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press.
Powell, Robert. 2004. “Bargaining and Learning while Fighting.” American Journal of Political Science 48(2):344–361.
Press, Daryl G. 2005. Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Ramsay, Kristopher W. 2004. “Politics at the Water’s Edge: Crisis Bargaining and Electoral Competition.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(4):459–486.
Reiter, Dan, and Stam, Allan C. III. 1998. “Democracy, War Initiation, and Victory.” American Political Science Review 92(2):377–389.
Renshon, Jonathan, Dafoe, Allan, and Huth, Paul. 2015. “To Whom Do Reputations Adhere? Experimental Evidence on Influence-Specific Reputations.” Working Paper.
Risse-Kappen, Thomas. 1991. “Did ‘Peace through Strength’ End the Cold War? Lessons from INF.” International Security 16(1):162–188.
Rivers, Douglas, and Rose, Nancy L.. 1985. “Passing the President’s Program: Public Opinion and Presidential Influence in Congress.” American Journal of Political Science 29(2):183–196
Roe, Patrick C. 2000. The Dragon Strikes: China and the Korean War, June–December 1950. New York: Presidio Press.
Roosevelt, Theodore. 1901. The Strenuous Life: Essays and Addresses by Theodore Roosevelt. New York: The Century Company.
Roper Report. 1984. Report 84–88, August. Retrieved December 27, 2013 from the iPOLL Databank, The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut.
Sanders, Jerry Wayne. 1983. Peddlers of Crisis: The Committee on the Present Danger and the Politics of Containment. Cambridge, MA: South End Press.
Sartori, Anne E. 2005. Deterrence by Diplomacy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Saunders, Elizabeth N. 2015. “War and the Inner Circle: Democratic Elites and the Politics of Using Force.” Security Studies 24(3):466–501.
Schelling, Thomas C. 1960. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Schelling, Thomas C. 1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Schultz, Kenneth A. 1998. “Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises.” American Political Science Review 92(4):829–844.
Schultz, Kenneth A. 1999. “Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform? Contrasting Two Institutional Perspectives on Democracy and War.” International Organization 53(2):233–266.
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. “Looking for Audience Costs.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40(1):16–40.
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2005. “The Politics of Risking Peace: Do Hawks or Doves Deliver the Olive Branch?” International Organization 59(1):1–38.
Schwartz, Andrew H., and Ungar, Lyle H.. 2015. “Content Analysis of Social Media: A Systematic Overview of Automated Methods.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 659(1):78–94.
Sechser, Todd S. 2011. “Militarized Compellent Threats, 1918–2001.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 28(4):377–410.
Shea, Patrick, Teo, Terence K., and Levy, Jack S.. 2014. “Opposition Politics and International Crises: A Formal Model.” International Studies Quarterly 58:741–751.
Shore, Zachary. 2014. A Sense of the Enemy: The High-Stakes History of Reading your Rival’s Mind. New York: Oxford University Press.
Simmons, Beth A., and Hopkins, Daniel J.. 2005. “The Constraining Power of International Treaties: Theory and Method.” American Political Science Review 99(4):623–631.
Singer, David J., Bremer, Stuart, and Stuckey, John. 1972. “Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820–1965.” In Peace, War, and Numbers, ed. Bruce Russett. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 19–48. Version 4.0 used directly, Version 3.0 used by EUGene for weighting Alliance Similarity.
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2003. “The Principle of Convergence in Wartime Negotiations.” American Political Science Review 97(3):621–632.
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2006. “Politicians, the Media, and Domestic Audience Costs.” International Studies Quarterly 50:445–477.
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2010. “Feigning Weakness.” International Organization 64:357–388.
Smith, Alastair. 1996. “International Crises and Domestic Politics.” American Political Science Review 92(3):623–638.
Smith, Ralph B. 1991. An International History of the Vietnam War, Volume III: The Making of a Limited War, 1965–1966. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
Snyder, Jack, and Borghard, Erica. 2011. “The Cost of Empty Threats: A Penny, Not a Pound.” American Political Science Review 105(3):437–456.
Stern, Sheldon M. 2005. The Week the World Stood Still: Inside the Secret Cuban Missile Crisis. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Taubman, William. 2003. Khrushchev: The Man and His Era. New York: W.W. Norton and Company.
Thies, Wallace J. 1980. When Governments Collide: Coercion and Diplomacy in the Vietnam Conflict 1964–1968. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Thompson, William R. 2001. “Identifying Rivals and Rivalries in World Politics.” International Studies Quarterly 45(4):557–586.
Thucydides. 400 B.C.E. . The History of the Peloponnesian War. Trans. Crawley, Richard and revised by Lateiner, Donald. New York: Barnes and Noble Classics.
Thyne, Clayton L. 2010. “Supporter of Stability or Agent of Agitation? The Effect of US Foreign Policy on Coups in Latin America, 1960–1999.” Journal of Peace Research 47(4):449–461. Online appendix. www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/ (May 12, 2012).
Tomlinson, Rodney G. 1993. “World Event/Interaction Survey (WEIS) Coding Manual.” Manuscript, United States Naval Academy.
Tomz, Michael. 2007. “Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach.” International Organization 61:821–840.
Trachtenberg, Marc. 2012. “Audience Costs: An Historical Analysis.” Security Studies 21(1):3–42.
Trager, Robert F. 2010. “Diplomatic Calculus in Anarchy: How Communication Matters.” American Political Science Review 104(2):347–368.
Trager, Robert F. 2013. “How the Scope of a Demand Conveys Resolve.” International Theory 5(3):414–445.
Trager, Robert F. 2015. “Diplomatic Signaling among Multiple States.” Journal of Politics 77(3):635–647.
Trager, Robert F., and Vavreck, Lynn. 2011. “The Political Costs of Crisis Bargaining: Presidential Rhetoric and the Role of Party.” American Journal of Political Science 55(3):526–545.
Wagner, R. Harrison. 2000. “Bargaining and War.” American Journal of Political Science 44(3):469–484.
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Weeks, Jessica L. 2008. “Autocratic Audience Costs: Regime Type and Signaling Resolve.” International Organization 62(1):35–64.
Weeks, Jessica L. 2012. “Strongmen and Straw Men: Authoritarian Regimes and the Initiation of International Conflict.” American Political Science Review 106(2):326–347.
Weeks, Jessica L. 2014. Dictators at War and Peace. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Weisbrot, Robert. 2001. Maximum Danger: Kennedy, the Missiles, and the Crisis of American Confidence. Chicago: Ivan R. Dee.
Weisiger, Alex, and Yarhi-Milo, Keren. 2015. “Revisiting Reputation: How Past Actions Matter in International Politics.” International Organization 69(2):473–495.
Williams, Richard. 2006. “Generalized Ordered Logit/Partial Proportional Odds Models for Ordinal Dependent Variables.” Stata Journal 6(1):58–82.
Wilson, James Graham. 2014. The Triumph of Improvisation: Gorbachev’s Adaptability, Reagan’s Engagement, and the End of the Cold War. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Wood, B. Dan. 2012. Presidential Saber Rattling: Causes and Consequences. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Wolford, Scott. 2012. “Incumbents, Successors, and Crisis Bargaining: Leadership Turnover as a Commitment Problem.” Journal of Peace Research 49(4):517–530.
Woodward, Bob. 2004. Plan of Attack. New York: Simon and Schuster
Zagare, Frank C., and Kilgour, D. Marc. 2000. Perfect Deterrence. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Zakaria, Fareed. 2012. “The Folly of a ‘Red Line.’” Washington Post, September 14, A19.
Zubok, Vladislav M. 2007. A Failed Empire: The Soviet Union in the Cold War from Stalin to Gorbachev. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press.