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Trusting Judgements
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    Drescher, Michael Edwards, Rachael C. and Wiersma, Yolanda 2018. A systematic review of transparency in the methods of expert knowledge use. Journal of Applied Ecology,

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    Rowe, Cayt Seif Zadeh, Hossein Garanovich, Ivan L. Jiang, Li Bilusich, Daniel Nunes-Vaz, Rick and Ween, Anthony 2017. Prioritizing investment in military cyber capability using risk analysis. The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, p. 154851291770707.

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Book description

Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made.


'Trusting Judgements: How to Get the Best out of Experts … is very clearly and logically structured … this book is written in easy and enjoyable language and very much oriented toward practical needs.'

Pierre L. Ibisch Source: Conservation Biology

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