The Volatility Curse examines the conditions under which economic voting can (and cannot) function as a mechanism of democratic accountability, challenging existing theories that are largely based on experiences in developed democracies. Drawing on cross-national data from around the world and micro-level evidence from Latin America, Daniela Campello and Cesar Zucco make two broad, related arguments. First, they show that economic voting is pervasive around the world, but in economically volatile developing democracies that are dependent on commodity exports and inflows of foreign capital, economic outcomes are highly contingent on conditions beyond government control, which nonetheless determine relevant political outcomes like elections, popular support, and government transitions. Second, politicians are aware of these misattribution patterns and are often able to anticipate their electoral prospects well before elections. This reduces incumbents' incentives to maximize voter welfare, as anticipated by economic voting theories, and increases the likelihood of shirking, waste, and corruption.

'Because of their sensitivity to international commodity prices and capital flows, Latin American economies undergo substantial volatility. Hence, those countries provide an excellent test of whether elections work as intended in modern democratic theory. Do the voters understand when their incumbents are not to blame for the economic downturns? Or do they punish anyway? This book provides new and powerful evidence that the voters just kick the dog when times are hard, even when the truth is patiently explained to them. The result is a powerful challenge to contemporary orthodoxies about the accountability of democratic governments.'

Christopher H. Achen - Princeton University, New Jersey

'Over the years, an initial focus on dependency theory among specialists in Latin American politics gave way to a turn toward institutions and domestic agency. Daniela Campello and Cesar Zucco had the insight to return to the international-domestic linkage: they found it not just operational but dominant, with its causal direction unchanged. This masterful book is as politically distressing as it is intellectually fascinating.'

Andrés Malamud - University of Lisbon

'The Volatility Curse is a path-breaking book illuminating the economic conditions that reduce governments’ incentives for political accountability in Latin America but with lessons for the rest of the developing world. In a nutshell, Campello and Zucco provide abundant evidence of the effect of exogenous shocks on electoral support and presidential popularity and the perverse incentives this generates to weaken the accountability of democratic governments. The book is a must-read for scholars of international and comparative political economy, as well as for those interested in understanding democracy in Latin America and other developing countries.'

Maria Victoria Murillo - Columbia University, New York

'Electoral accountability for the economy in the developing world is conditional on exogenously-driven volatility. This creative argument by Campello and Zucco, backed by a wealth of empirical data, sheds new light on the limits to effective democratic representation in emerging economies.'

Timothy J. Power - University of Oxford

‘Like the best books, The Volatility Curse offers new insight into the political economy of elections while also raising novel questions for future work. Its findings speak most directly to those interested in the political economy of Latin America …’

Noam Lupu Source: Perspectives on Politics