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The Hedgers

How The Global South Navigates the Sino-American Competition

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 February 2026

Zaki Laïdi
Affiliation:
Sciences Po, Paris
Yves Tiberghien
Affiliation:
TSE, National Tsinghua University

Summary

The extreme instability caused by the interminable war in Ukraine, Sino-American tensions, and Trump's return to power raises an essential question: How can the states of the Global South – particularly those endowed with significant resources and full of ambition – navigate this current global turbulence? Are they succumbing to the logic of bipolarity, or are they escaping from it by amplifying their hedging power, and, in the process, making the international system more multipolar? To answer these key questions, we analyze the strategic behavior of eight states: India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, South Africa, and Brazil. Their selection is based on eight precise metrics. It is these eight key states that we call the Hedgers. They are among the countries of the Global South that have good opportunities to navigate – with some challenges – the troubled environment of what is increasingly difficult to call the 'world order.'
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