Quality Control: Experiments on the Microfoundations of Retrospective Voting

Austin Ray Hart; J Scott Matthews

doi:10.1017/9781009357005

Series: Elements in Experimental Political Science

Quality Control

Experiments on the Microfoundations of Retrospective Voting

Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 May 2023

Austin Ray Hart and

J Scott Matthews

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Austin Ray Hart: Affiliation:
School of International Service, American University
J Scott Matthews: Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland

Summary

Conventional models of voting behavior depict individuals who judge governments for how the world unfolds during their time in office. This phenomenon of retrospective voting requires that individuals integrate and appraise streams of performance information over time. Yet past experimental studies short-circuit this 'integration-appraisal' process. In this Element, we develop a new framework for studying retrospective voting and present eleven experiments building on that framework. Notably, when we allow integration and appraisal to unfold freely, we find little support for models of 'blind retrospection.' Although we observe clear recency bias, we find respondents who are quick to appraise and who make reasonable use of information cues. Critically, they regularly employ benchmarking strategies to manage complex, variable, and even confounded streams of performance information. The results highlight the importance of centering the integration-appraisal challenge in both theoretical models and experimental designs and begin to uncover the cognitive foundations of retrospective voting.

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Keywords

retrospective voting voting behavior experimental design democratic accountability external validity

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Type: Element
Information: Series: Elements in Experimental Political Science

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009357005 [Opens in a new window]

Online ISBN: 9781009357005

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Print publication: 31 August 2023

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