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Climate Change, Salinization and High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh

  • Susmita Dasgupta, Md. Moqbul Hossain, Mainul Huq and David Wheeler

Progressive salinization of water and soil will be increasingly severe in low-lying coastal areas as climate change proceeds. Thus, understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion will be essential for effective adaptation planning. This paper uses econometric analysis to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil salinity on high-yielding-variety rice production in coastal Bangladesh. Findings indicate an output decline of 15.6 percent in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4 deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without new adaptation strategies, the predicted changes will result in 7.7 and 5.6 percent losses in the Barisal and Chittagong regions, respectively.

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This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (, which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Corresponding author
Correspondence: Susmita Dasgupta - Development Economics Research Group - Environment and Energy Unit - The World Bank - 1818 H Street - Washington DC 20433 - email
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This research was funded by the Knowledge for Change Program.

We would like to extend our special thanks to Dr. Md. Sher Ali for his help with the data and for his expert opinion. We are thankful to Brian Blankespoor for his help with the graphics. We are also grateful to Dr. Forhad Shilpi, Dr. Johannes Zutt, and Dr. Michael Toman for their comments and suggestions on an earlier version of the paper.

The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The views expressed are the authors’ and do not necessarily represent the policies or views of any sponsoring agencies.

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Agricultural and Resource Economics Review
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