Empirical models of commodity prices are potentially important aids to decision-makers, especially as the economy has grown more complex. A typical time series of commodity prices exhibits positive autocorrelation, occasional spikes, and random variability, and conceptual models have been developed to explain this behavior. But, the leap from theory to empirical applications is large because of model specification and data quality problems. When modeling price expectations, for example, should a price series be deflated and if so, by what deflator? The choice can have a large effect on empirical results. Nonetheless, it is possible in some applications to obtain relatively stable estimates of structural parameters that are useful for addressing specific problems. This may not happen often, however, because the incentives in academia do not encourage rigorous, in-depth appraisals of empirical results.

Constraints on production economic research are examined in three dimensions: problem focus, methodology, and data availability. Data availability has played a large role in the choice of problem focus and explains some misdirected focus. A proprosal is made to address the data availability constraint. The greatest self-imposed constraints are methodological. Production economics has focused on flexible representations of technology at the expense of specificity in preferences. Yet some of the major problems faced by decision makers relate to long-term problems, e.g., the commodity boom and ensuing debt crisis of the 1970s and 1980s where standard short-term profit maximization models are unlikely to capture the essence of decision maker concerns.

This study assesses the potential interaction between climate change and agricultural trade policies. We distinguish between two dimensions of agricultural trade policy: market insulation and subsidy levels. Building on the previous work of Tsigas, Frisvold and Kuhn (1997) we find that, in the presence of current levels of agricultural subsidies, increased price transmission—as called for under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture—reduces global welfare in the wake of climate change. This is due to the positive correlation between productivity changes and current levels of agricultural support. Increases in subsidized output under climate change tend to exacerbate inefficiencies in the global agricultural economy in the absence of market insulation. However, once agricultural subsidies have also been eliminated, price transmission via the global trading system contributes positively to economic adaptation under climate change.

This study reviews articles using regression analysis published in the Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics from 1994 to 1998 to determine agricultural economists’ effectiveness in reporting and conveying research procedures and results. Based on the authors’ experiences of surveying articles for this study, several suggestions for reporting of results and how to better separate statistical from economic significance are offered. First, clearly define the dependent variable—preferably in the results table as well as within the text. Second, report parameter estimates in an interpretable form either in the results table or in a subsequent table. Third, report summary statistics. Fourth, report degrees of freedom conspicuously in the results table. Fifth, report if statistically insignificant variables have been dropped. Lastly, weigh economic importance aside from statistical significance and use simulation to express economic significance where appropriate.

Inclusion of multi-destination and multi-purpose visitors has an appreciable influence on a standard count data travel cost model derived estimate of willingness to pay but the differences are not statistically significant. We adapt a more general travel cost model (TCM) of Parsons and Wilson (1997) that allows for inclusion of multi-destination visitors as incidental demand to allow estimation of an unbiased measure of single and multi-destination willingness to pay for whale viewing using a single pooled equation. The primary purpose trip values from the standard TCM and simple generalized TCM model are identical at $43 per person per day and neither are significantly different from the $50 day value from a generalized model that distinguishes between joint and incidental trips. The general models avoid underestimation of total recreation site benefits that would result from omitting the consumer surplus of multi-destination visitors.

The relationships between intersectoral export and local employment and regional economic growth are analyzed in a long-run equilibrium framework. Dynamic location quotients decompose regional employment into export and local components for multiple sectors. Johansen's Full-Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) approach is used to identify the existence and resultant rank of the co-integrating relationship between sectoral export and local employment in West Virginia's four metropolitan areas. Empirical results indicate inter-sectoral basic and non-basic employment form a co-integrating system of equations. Furthermore, this analysis shows that inter-sector shocks to local and export employment may cause multipliers to be positive or negative in magnitude.

This paper examines the efficiency of a sample of Great Plains grain marketing and farm supply cooperatives during 1988 to 1992. In general, larger cooperatives were more X-efficient and scale efficient. Labor tended to be under-utilized and capital over-utilized. Petroleum product sales and fertilizer sales were negatively related to overall efficiency. Sales of goods other than grain, fertilizer, agricultural chemicals, petroleum products, and feed was positively related to overall efficiency. Overall efficiency was significantly correlated with the rate of return to assets.

Congress consented to the creation of the Northeast Interstate Dairy Compact in the 1996 Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act. Interest is now growing in expanding this compact and creating new multi-regional dairy compacts. Dairy compacts provide a floor for Class I fluid prices and thus stabilize and enhance farm milk prices in compact regions. This analysis indicates that multi-regional dairy compacts will result in clear economic tradeoffs between dairy farmers, processors, retailers, and consumers. While dairy farmers within the compact region may economically benefit from higher farm milk prices, processors, retailers and consumers in the compact region and dairy farmers outside the compact region will face economic losses.

This study analyzes the use and profitability of three distinct feeding systems; confinement feeding, traditional grazing, and management-intensive grazing from a randomly selected sample of northeastern dairy farms. The confinement feeding farms were significantly larger and produced more milk per cow, while the farms using management-intensive grazing incurred the lowest production costs. Both confinement feeding and management-intensive grazing generated significantly higher rates of return to farm assets relative to farms using a mixed system. Multiple regression analysis confirms the critical importance of herd size, milk production per cow, debt level and veterinary expenses to farm profitability in all production systems.

Zero runoff subirrigation (ZRS) technology can effectively manage fertilizer input while improving greenhouse production efficiency. However, high capital investment costs and inadequate technical information to growers are impediments for adoption. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to compare the profitability and risks of alternative ZRS system investments for greenhouse operations in the northeastern and north central United States. Results showed that the Dutch movable tray system and the flood floor system were most profitable and least risky for small potted plant and bedding crop flat production, respectively. The trough bench system was least favorable because its profitability was low and highly volatile.

A financial training program designed by Cooperative Extension specialists was provided to over 2,000 USDA/FSA borrowers from the Northeast during the period 1994–1999. Key to the success of the workshops was an in-depth, user-friendly curriculum that evolved over time, eventually replacing satellite-feed instruction with pre-taped videos. Cluster analysis classified nearly 70% of workshop participants as “Low Finance Priority” or “Low Finance Knowledge.” Farmers in these clusters received a relatively greater educational benefit from the program than those not in these clusters. Impact analysis indicated that perceived annual gain in farm net worth from application of workshop tools ranged from approximately $5,000 to $10,000. The training addressed the needs of producers typically isolated from Cooperative Extension because the workshop was the only extension program attended that year by nearly two-thirds of them.