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Yet more on a stochastic economic model: Supplement to Part 4: A model for share earnings, dividends and prices

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 August 2019

A. D. Wilkie  and
Şule Şahin
A. D. Wilkie*
Affiliation:
InQA Limited, Dennington, Ridgeway, Horsell, Woking, GU21 4QR, UK
Şule Şahin
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Institute for Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK Department of Actuarial Sciences, Hacettepe University, 06800, Ankara, Turkey
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: david.wilkie@inqa.com
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Abstract

In this paper, we revisit the Earnings, Cover (the ratio of earnings over dividends) and Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio models which we introduced in Part 4 of this series. Although we suggested that the significant decline in the Earnings Index over 2015-2016 might be followed by dividends and share prices, this has not happened. Instead, Earnings have risen substantially over the years 2016 to 2018. Therefore, we revise our models based on the updated data and compare the new set of models with the one in Part 4 as well as with themselves. We then compare different methods for forecasting Dividends and Share Prices.

Keywords

EarningsCoverP/E ratiosDividends
Type
Paper
Information
Annals of Actuarial Science , Volume 14 , Issue 1 , March 2020 , pp. 138 - 149
Copyright
© Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 2019 

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References

Wilkie, A.D. & Şahin, Ş. (2016). Yet more on a stochastic economic model: Part 2: Initial Conditions, Select Periods and Neutralising Parameters. Annals of Actuarial Science, 10, 1–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilkie, A.D. & Şahin, Ş. (2018). Yet more on a stochastic economic model: Part 4:A Model for Share Earnings, Dividends, and Prices. Annals of Actuarial Science, 12, 67–105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar