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Puerto Rico Plain Pigeon Patagioenas inornata wetmorei population assessment after Hurricanes Irma and María

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2025

Frank F. Rivera-Milán Open the ORCID record for Frank F. Rivera-Milán [Opens in a new window] ,
Alexis J. Martínez ,
Antonio Matos ,
David Guzmán ,
René F. Ramos-Rodríguez ,
Madelyn González-Rosado ,
Carlos R. Ruiz-Lebrón ,
Eduardo A. Ventosa-Febles ,
Jorge Gutiérrez  and
José A. Valentín
...Show all authors
Frank F. Rivera-Milán*
Affiliation:
https://ror.org/04k7dar27US Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Migratory Bird Management, Branch of Assessment and Decision Support, Laurel, MD, USA
Alexis J. Martínez
Affiliation:
Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, Bureau of Research and Conservation of Habitats and Biodiversity, Division of Terrestrial Ecology, San Juan, Puerto Rico
Antonio Matos
Affiliation:
Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, Bureau of Research and Conservation of Habitats and Biodiversity, Division of Terrestrial Ecology, San Juan, Puerto Rico
David Guzmán
Affiliation:
Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, Bureau of Research and Conservation of Habitats and Biodiversity, Division of Terrestrial Ecology, San Juan, Puerto Rico
René F. Ramos-Rodríguez
Affiliation:
Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, Bureau of Research and Conservation of Habitats and Biodiversity, Division of Terrestrial Ecology, San Juan, Puerto Rico
Madelyn González-Rosado
Affiliation:
Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, Bureau of Research and Conservation of Habitats and Biodiversity, Division of Terrestrial Ecology, San Juan, Puerto Rico
Carlos R. Ruiz-Lebrón
Affiliation:
Effective Environmental Restoration, Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico
Eduardo A. Ventosa-Febles
Affiliation:
Effective Environmental Restoration, Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico
Jorge Gutiérrez
Affiliation:
Effective Environmental Restoration, Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico
José A. Valentín
Affiliation:
Effective Environmental Restoration, Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico
Fernando Simal
Affiliation:
WILDCONSCIENCE, Kaya Platina 42, Kralendijk, Bonaire, Caribbean Netherlands CARMABI Foundation, Piscaderabaai z/n, Willemstad, Curaçao
*
Corresponding author: Frank F. Rivera-Milán; Email: frank_rivera@fws.gov
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Summary

The Puerto Rico Plain Pigeon Patagioenas inornata wetmorei suffered a severe population decline after hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017. We used distance sampling to estimate abundance (density and population size) in April–June 1986−2024, accounting for changes in detection probability. We used the distance-sampling abundance estimates to populate a Bayesian state–space logistic model and update posterior estimates of population carrying capacity, maximum population growth rate, population recovery time, and predicted abundance in April–June 2025−2034, accounting for observation and process variances. In addition, we used predicted abundance to assess potential extinction risk (probability Pr[N2025−2034 = 0|data]), population self-sustainability above 5,000 individuals (Pr[N2025−2034 >5,000|data]), and population surpassing the 2.5th percentile of carrying capacity (Pr[N2025−2034 >30,000|data]). The population has not recovered from the hurricanes, with estimated density averaging 0.0015 individuals/ha (bootstrapped standard error [SE] = 0.0006) and population size averaging 1,097 individuals (SE = 455) at the 749,000-ha survey region in April–June 2018−2024. Posterior mean estimates were 41,580 individuals (Markov Chain Monte Carlo standard deviation [SD] = 8,052) for population carrying capacity, 0.183 (SD = 0.056) for maximum population growth rate, six years (SD = 2) for recovery time, and 7,173 individuals (SD = 12,309) for predicted abundance in April–June 2025−2034. The population may reach self-sustainability levels (range Pr[N2025−2034 >5,000|data] = 0.326−0.631) but currently is undergoing a prolonged bottleneck and may become extinct (range Pr[N2025−2034 = 0|data] = 0.199−0.332), particularly if reproduction continues to be mostly unsuccessful, anthropogenic disturbances remain unabated, and on top of that another devastating hurricane makes landfall during the next 10 years. The Puerto Rico Plain Pigeon subspecies is in urgent need of management aiming to increase and maintain abundance above 5,000 individuals but preferably surpassing the 2.5th percentile of population carrying capacity as in the late 1990s (range Pr[N2025−2034 >30,000|data] = 0.000−0.181).

Keywords

AbundanceDetectionMaximum population growth ratePopulation carrying capacityPopulation recovery timePopulation self-sustainabilityPotential extinction riskPuerto Rico Plain Pigeon

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
Bird Conservation International , Volume 35 , 2025 , e16
Creative Commons
This is a work of the US Government and is not subject to copyright protection within the United States. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of BirdLife International
Copyright
© United States Fish and Wildlife Service, 2025.

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