Hostname: page-component-7b9c58cd5d-bslzr Total loading time: 0.001 Render date: 2025-03-20T11:15:02.991Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Causal Effect of Radical Right Success on Mainstream Parties’ Policy Positions: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 June 2018

Tarik Abou-Chadi  and
Werner Krause
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article investigates how the success of radical right parties affects the policy positions of mainstream parties. We do this using a regression discontinuity approach that allows us to causally attribute mainstream parties’ positional changes to radical right strength independent of public opinion as a potential confounder. Making use of exogenous variation created through differences in electoral thresholds, we empirically demonstrate that radical right success, indeed, causally affects mainstream parties’ positions. This is true for mainstream left as well as mainstream right parties. These findings make an important contribution to the broader literature on party competition as they indicate that other parties’ behavior and not only public opinion plays a crucial role in explaining parties’ policy shift.

Keywords

radical rightparty competitionimmigration
Type
Articles
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 50 , Issue 3 , July 2020 , pp. 829 - 847
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2018

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Department of Political Science, University of Zurich (Email: tarik.abou-chadi@uzh.ch); Research Unit ‘Democracy and Democratization’, WZB Berlin Social Science Center (Email: werner.krause@wzb.eu). For helpful comments the authors want to thank Pablo Barbera, Martin Kroh, Matthias Orlowski, Markus Wagner, the editor and three anonymous reviewers. Data replication sets are available in Harvard Datavers at https://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/KYSD5S and online appendices at https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123418000029.

References

Abou-Chadi, Tarik. 2016. Niche Party Success and Mainstream Party Policy Shifts: How Green and Radical Right Parties Differ in their Impact. British Journal of Political Science 46 (2):417–436.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abou-Chadi, Tarik, and Orlowski, Matthias. 2016. Moderate as Necessary: The Role of Electoral Competitiveness and Party Size in Explaining Parties’ Policy Shifts. Journal of Politics 78 (3):868–881.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adams, James. 2012. Causes and Electoral Consequences of Party Policy Shifts in Multiparty Elections: Theoretical Results and Empirical Evidence. Annual Review of Political Science 15 (1):401–419.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adams, James, Clark, Michael, Ezrow, Lawrence, and Glasgow, Garrett. 2004. Understanding Change and Stability in Party Ideologies: Do Parties Respond to Public Opinion or to Past Election Results? British Journal of Political Science 34 (4):589–610.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adams, James, Clark, Michael, Ezrow, Lawrence, and Glasgow, Garrett. 2006. Are Niche Parties Fundamentally Different from Mainstream Parties? The Causes and the Electoral Consequences of Western European Parties’ Policy Shifts, 1976–1998. American Journal of Political Science 50 (3):513–529.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adams, James, and Somer-Topcu, Zeynep. 2009. Policy Adjustment by Parties in Response to Rival Parties’ Policy Shifts: Spatial Theory and the Dynamics of Party Competition in Twenty-Five Post-War Democracies. British Journal of Political Science 39 (4):825–846.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Akkerman, Tjitske. 2015. Immigration Policy and Electoral Competition in Western Europe. A Fine-Grained Analysis of Party Positions over the Past Two Decades. Party Politics 21 (1):54–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alonso, Sonia, and da Fonseca, Saro Claro. 2012. Immigration, Left and Right. Party Politics 18 (6):865–884.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arzheimer, Kai. 2009. Contextual Factors and the Extreme Right Vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002. American Journal of Political Science 53 (2):259–275.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bale, Tim. 2003. Cinderella and her Ugly Sisters: The Mainstream and Extreme Right in Europe’s Bipolarising Party Systems. West European Politics 26 (3):67–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bale, Tim. 2008. Turning round the Telescope. Centre-Right Parties and Immigration and Integration Policy in Europe. Journal of European Public Policy 15 (3):315–330.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bale, Tim, Green-Pedersen, Christoffer, Krouwel, André, Luther, Kurt Richard, and Sitter, Nick. 2010. If You Can’t Beat Them, Join Them? Explaining Social Democratic Responses to the Challenge from the Populist Radical Right in Western Europe. Political Studies 58 (3):410–426.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bischoff, Carina S. 2009. National Level Electoral Thresholds: Problems and Solutions. Electoral Studies 28 (2):232–239.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Budge, Ian. 1994. A New Spatial Theory of Party Competition: Uncertainty, Ideology and Policy Equilibria Viewed Comparatively and Temporally. British Journal of Political Science 24 (4):443–467.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bustikova, Lenka. 2014. Revenge of the Radical Right. Comparative Political Studies 47 (12):1738–1765.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Vries, Catherine E., and Hobolt, Sara B.. 2012. When Dimensions Collide: The Electoral Success of Issue Entrepreneurs. European Union Politics 13 (2):246–268.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dinas, Elias, Riera, Pedro, and Roussias, Nasos. 2015. Staying in the First League: Parliamentary Representation and the Electoral Success of Small Parties. Political Science Research and Methods 3 (2):187–204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Döring, Holger, and Manow, Philip. 2012. Parliament and Government Composition Database (ParlGov): An Infrastructure for Empirical Information on Parties, Elections and Governments in Modern Democracies, version 12, 10 Edition. Available from: http://www.parlgov.org.Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. Boston, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Dumont, Patrick, and Poirier, Philippe. 2005. Luxembourg. European Journal of Political Research 44 (7–8):1102–1118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Efron, Bradley, and Tibshirani, Robert. 1993. An Introduction to the Bootstrap. New York: Chapman & Hall.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eggers, Andrew C., Fowler, Anthony, Hainmüller, Jens, Hall, Andrew B., and Snyder, James M.. 2015. On the Validity of the Regression Discontinuity Design for Estimating Electoral Effects: New Evidence from over 40,000 Close Races. American Journal of Political Science 59 (1):259–274.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fan, Jianqing, and Gijbels, Irène. 1996. Local Polynomial Modelling and its Applications, 1st edition, Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability, 66. London and New York: Chapman & Hall.Google Scholar
Gemenis, Kostas. 2013. What to Do (and Not to Do) with the Comparative Manifestos Project Data. Political Studies 61 (S1):3–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Golder, Matt. 2003. Explaining Variation in the Success of Extreme Right Parties in Western Europe. Comparative Political Studies 36 (4):432–466.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Golder, Matt. 2006. Presidential Coattails and Legislative Fragmentation. American Journal of Political Science 50 (1):34–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green-Pedersen, Christoffer, and Mortensen, Peter B.. 2015. Avoidance and Engagement: Issue Competition in Multiparty Systems. Political Studies 63 (4):747–764.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hahn, Jinyong, Todd, Petra, and van der Klaauw, Wilbert. 2001. Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design. Econometrica 69 (1):201–209.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hainmüller, Jens, and Kern, Holger Lutz. 2008. Incumbency as a Source of Spillover Effects in Mixed Electoral Systems: Evidence from a Regression-Discontinuity Design. Electoral Studies 27 (2):213–227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Han, Kyung Joon. 2015. The Impact of Radical Right-Wing Parties on the Positions of Mainstream Parties Regarding Multiculturalism. West European Politics 38 (3):557–576.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hobolt, Sara B., and de Vries, Catherine E.. 2015. Issue Entrepreneurship and Multiparty Competition. Comparative Political Studies 48 (9):1159–1185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Imbens, Guido, and Kalyanaraman, Karthik. 2009. Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator. Cambridge, MA: NBER Working Paper No. 14726.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Imbens, Guido W., and Lemieux, Thomas. 2008. Regression Discontinuity Designs: A Guide to Practice. Journal of Econometrics 142 (2):615–635.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Interparliamentary Union. 2015. PARLINE Database on National Parliaments. Available from: http://archive.ipu.org/parline/parlinesearch.asp.Google Scholar
Ivarsflaten, Elisabeth. 2007. What Unites Right-Wing Populists in Western Europe? Re-Examining Grievance Mobilization Models in Seven Successful Cases. Comparative Political Studies 41 (1):3–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, Heemin, and Fording, Richard C.. 2003. Voter Ideology in Western Democracies: An Update. European Journal of Political Research 42 (1):95–105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitschelt, Herbert, and McGann, Anthony J.. 1995. The Radical Right in Western Europe: A Comparative Analysis. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Klüver, Heike, and Spoon, Jae-Jae. 2016. Who Responds? Voters, Parties and Issue Attention. British Journal of Political Science 46 (3):633–654.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriesi, Hanspeter, Grande, Edgar, Lachat, Romain, Dolezal, Martin, Bornschier, Simon, and Frey, Timotheos. 2008. West European Politics in the Age of Globalization. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, David S. 2008. Randomized Experiments from Non-Random Selection in U.S. House Elections. Journal of Econometrics 142 (2):675–697.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, David S., and Lemieux, Thomas. 2010. Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics. Journal of Economic Literature 48 (2):281–355.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, Arend. 1994. Electoral Systems and Party Systems: A Study of Twenty-Seven Democracies, 1945–1990. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lowe, Will, Benoit, Kenneth, Mikhaylov, Slava, and Laver, Michael. 2011. Scaling Policy Preferences from Coded Political Texts. Legislative Studies Quarterly 36 (1):123–155.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCrary, Justin. 2008. Manipulation of the Running Variable in the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test. Journal of Econometrics 142 (2):698–714.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meguid, Bonnie M. 2005. Competition Between Unequals: The Role of Mainstream Party Strategy in Niche Party Success. American Political Science Review 99 (3):347–359.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meguid, Bonnie M. 2008. Party Competition Between Unequals. Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meyer, Sarah, and Rosenberger, Sieglinde. 2015. Just a Shadow? The Role of Radical Right Parties in the Politicization of Immigration, 1995–2009. Politics and Governance 3 (2):1–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meyer, Thomas M. 2013. Constraints on Party Policy Change. Colchester: ECPR Press.Google Scholar
Minkenberg, Michael. 2001. The Radical Right in Public Office: Agenda-Setting and Policy Effects. West European Politics 24 (4):1–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mudde, Cas. 1996. The War of Words Defining the Extreme Right Party Family. West European Politics 19 (2):225–248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mudde, Cas. 2007. Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mudde, Cas. 2013. Three Decades of Populist Radical Right Parties in Western Europe: So What? European Journal of Political Research 52 (1):1–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nohlen, Dieter, and Stöver, Philip. 2010. Elections in Europe: A Data Handbook. Baden-Baden: Nomos.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norris, Pippa. 2005. Radical Right: Voters and Parties in the Electoral Market. Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pardos-Prado, Sergi. 2015. How Can Mainstream Parties Prevent Niche Party Success? Center-Right Parties and the Immigration Issue. Journal of Politics 77 (2):352–367.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pilet, Jean-Benoit, and Renwick, Alan. 2015. Electoral System Change in Europe since 1945. Available from: http://www.electoralsystemchanges.eu.Google Scholar
Rae, Douglas, Hanby, Victor, and Loosemore, John. 1971. Thresholds of Representation and Thresholds of Exclusion: An Analytic Note on Electoral Systems. Comparative Political Studies 3 (4):479–488.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rokkan, Stein. 1968. The Structuring of Mass Politics in the Smaller European Democracies: A Developmental Typology. Comparative Studies in Society and History 10 (2):173–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schain, Martin A. 1987. The National Front in France and the Construction of Political Legitimacy. West European Politics 10 (2):229–252.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shugart, Matthew Soberg, and Wattenberg, Martin P.. 2001. Mixed-Member Electoral Systems. A Definition and Typology. Pp. 9–24 in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds?, edited by M. S. Shugart and M. P. Wattenberg. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Somer-Topcu, Zeynep. 2009. Timely Decisions: The Effects of Past National Elections on Party Policy Change. Journal of Politics 71 (1):238–248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spoon, Jae-Jae, Hobolt, Sara B., and de Vries, Catherine E.. 2014. Going Green: Explaining Issue Competition on the Environment. European Journal of Political Research 53 (2):363–380.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taagepera, Rein. 1989. Empirical Threshold of Representation. Electoral Studies 8 (2):105–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taagepera, Rein. 1998. Effective Magnitude and Effective Threshold. Electoral Studies 17 (4):393–404.Google Scholar
Taagepera, Rein. 2002. Nationwide Threshold of Representation. Electoral Studies 21:383–401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van der Brug, Wouter, Fennema, Meindert, and Tillie, Jean. 2005. Why Some Anti-Immigrant Parties Fail and Others Succeed: A Two-Step Model of Aggregate Electoral Support. Comparative Political Studies 38 (5):537–573.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van der Klaauw, Wilbert. 2002. Estimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers on College Enrollment: A Regression–Discontinuity Approach. International Economic Review 43 (4):1249–1287.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Heerden, Sjoerdje, de Lange, Sarah L., van der Brug, Wouter, and Fennema, Meindert. 2014. The Immigration and Integration Debate in the Netherlands: Discursive and Programmatic Reactions to the Rise of Anti-Immigration Parties. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 40 (1):119–136.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Spanje, Joost. 2010. Contagious Parties Anti-Immigration Parties and their Impact on Other Parties’ Immigration Stances in Contemporary Western Europe. Party Politics 16 (5):563–586.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Volkens, Andrea, Lehmann, Pola, Matthieß, Theres, Merz, Nicolas, Regel, Sven, and Werner, Annika. 2015. The Manifesto Data Collection: Manifesto Project (MRG/CMP/MARPOR). Version 2015a. Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB).Google Scholar
Wagner, Markus, and Meyer, Thomas M.. 2017. The Radical Right as Niche Parties? The Ideological Landscape of Party Systems in Western Europe, 1980–2014. Political Studies 65 (1S):84–107.Google Scholar
Williams, Laron K. 2015. It’s All Relative: Spatial Positioning of Parties and Ideological Shifts. European Journal of Political Research 54 (1):141–159.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Abou-Chadi and Krause et al. Dataset

Dataset

https://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/KYSD5S
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Abou-Chadi and Krause et al. supplementary material

Appendix

Download Abou-Chadi and Krause et al. supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 310.8 KB