¹ Kahn, Matthew, ‘The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income Geography and Institutions’, Review of Economics and Statistics, 87 (2005), 271–284CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Cavallo, Eduardo and Noy, Ilan, The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey (Washington, D.C.: Inter-American Development Bank, 2009)Google Scholar

World Bank, Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention (Washington, D.C.: World Bank Publications, 2010)Google Scholar

² >Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson and James D. Morrow, The Logic of Political Survival (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2003)Bruce+Bueno+de+Mesquita,+Alastair+Smith,+Randolph+M.+Siverson+and+James+D.+Morrow,+The+Logic+of+Political+Survival+(Cambridge,+Mass.:+MIT+Press,+2003)>Google Scholar

³ Sen, Amartya, Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1983)CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Sen, Amartya, ‘Public Action to Remedy Hunger’, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, 16 (1991), 324–336CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁴ Cavallo and Noy, The Economics of Natural Disasters.

⁵ Kahn, ‘The Death Toll from Natural Disasters’, pp. 271–284Google Scholar

⁶ Anbarci, Nejat, Escaleras, Monica and Register, Charles A., ‘Earthquake Fatalities: The Interaction of Nature and Political Economy’, Journal of Public Economics, 89 (2005), 1907–1933CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁷ Stromberg, David, ‘Natural Disasters, Economic Development, and Humanitarian Aid’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21 (2007), 199–222CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁸ Raschky, Paul A., ‘Institutions and the Losses from Natural Disasters’, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 8 (2008), 627–634CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁹ Toya, Hideki and Skidmore, Mark, ‘Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters’, Economics Letters, 94 (2007), 20–25CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹⁰ Escaleras, Monica, Anbarci, Nejat and Register, Charles A., ‘Public Sector Corruption and Major Earthquakes: A Potentially Deadly Interaction’, Public Choice, 132 (2007), 209–230CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Cohen, Charles and Werker, Eric D., ‘The Political Economy of “Natural” Disasters’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 52 (2008), 795–819CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Olson, Richard Stuart and Gawronski, Vincent T., ‘From Disaster Event to Political Crisis: A “5C+A” Framework for Analysis’, International Studies Perspectives, 11 (2010), 205–221CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹¹ Anbarci, Escaleras and Register, ‘Earthquake Fatalities’, pp. 1907–1933Google Scholar

Kahn, ‘The Death Toll from Natural Disasters’, pp. 271–284Google Scholar

Escaleras, Anbarci and Register, ‘Public Sector Corruption and Major Earthquakes: A Potentially Deadly Interaction’, p. 209–230CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Keefer, Philip, Neumayer, Eric and Plümper, Thomas, Earthquake Propensity and the Politics of Mortality Prevention (Washington D.C.: World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 5182, 2010)Google Scholar

¹² Anbarci, Escaleras and Register, ‘Earthquake Fatalities’, pp. 1907–1933Google Scholar

Kahn, ‘The Death Toll from Natural Disasters’, p. 271–284Google Scholar

Escaleras, Anbarci and Register, ‘Public Sector Corruption and Major Earthquakes: A Potentially Deadly Interaction’, p. 209–230CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹³ Sen, ‘Public Action to Remedy Hunger’, p. 324–336CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹⁴ Besley, Timothy and Burgess, Robin, ‘The Political Economy of Government Responsiveness: Theory and Evidence from India’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117 (2002), 1415–1451CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹⁵ Rutherford, Platt, Disasters and Democracy: The Politics of Extreme Natural Events (Washington D.C.: Island Press, 1999)Google Scholar

Eisensee, Thomas and Stromberg, David, ‘News Droughts, News Floods, and U.S. Disaster Relief’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122 (2007), 693–728CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹⁶ Achen, Christopher H. and Bartels, Larry M., Blind Retrospection Electoral Responses to Drought Flu and Shark Attacks (Princeton NJ: Mimeo, Princeton University, 2004)Google Scholar

¹⁷ Malhotra, Neil and Kuo, Alexander G., ‘Emotions as Moderators of Information Cue Use Citizen Attitudes Toward Hurricane Katrina’, American Politics Research, 37 (2009), 301–326CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Gasper, John T. and Reeves, Andrew, ‘Make it Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters’, American Journal of Political Science, 55 (2011), 340–355CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹⁸ Abney, F. Glenn and Hill, Larry B., ‘Natural Disasters as a Political Variable: The Effect of a Hurricane on an Urban Election’, American Political Science Review, 60 (1966), 974–981CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Chen, Jowei, Are Poor Voters Easier to Buy Off with Money? A Natural Experiment from the 2004 Florida Hurricane Season (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, 2008)Google Scholar

Chen, Jowei, When Do Government Benefits Influence Voters’ Behavior? The Effect of FEMA Disaster Awards on US Presidential Votes (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, 2009)Google Scholar

Healy, Andrew and Malhotra, Neil, ‘Random Events Economic Losses and Retrospective Voting: Implications for Democratic Competence’, Quarterly Journal of Political Science 5 (2010), p. 193–208Google Scholar

Reeves, Andrew, ‘Political Disaster Unilateral Powers Electoral Incentives and Presidential Disaster Declarations’, Journal of Politics, 73 (2011), 1–10CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹⁹ Olson and Gawronski, ‘From Disaster Event to Political Crisis: A “5C+A” Framework for Analysis’, p. 205–221CrossRefGoogle Scholar

²⁰ Brass, Paul, ‘The Political Uses of Crisis: The Bihar Famine of 1966–1967’, Journal of Asian Studies, 45 (1986), 245–267CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Albala-Bertrand, J. M., Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters (Oxford UK: Clarendon, 1993)CrossRefGoogle Scholar

²¹ Mustafa, Daanish, ‘Reinforcing Vulnerability? Disaster Relief Recovery and Response to the 2001 Flood in Rawalpindi, Pakistan’, Environmental Hazards, 5 (2003), 71–82CrossRefGoogle Scholar

²² Pelling, Mark, ‘The Political Ecology of Food Hazard in Urban Guyana’, Geoforum, 30 (1999), 249–261CrossRefGoogle Scholar

²³ Congleton, Roger D., ‘The Story of Katrina: New Orleans and the Political Economy of Catastrophe’, Public Choice, 127 (2006), 5–30CrossRefGoogle Scholar

²⁴ Sylves, Richard and Buzas, Zoltan I., ‘Presidential Disaster Declaration Decisions, 1953–2003: What Influences Odds of Approval?’, State and Local Government Review, 39 (2007), 3–15CrossRefGoogle Scholar

²⁵ Garrett, Thomas A. and Sobel, Russell S., ‘The Political Economy of FEMA Disaster Payments’, Economic Inquiry, 41 (2003), 496–509CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Reeves, ‘Political Disaster Unilateral Powers Electoral Incentives and Presidential Disaster Declarations’, p. 1–10Google Scholar

²⁶ Chen, Are Poor Voters Easier to Buy Off with Money?; Chen, When Do Government Benefits Influence Voters’ Behavior?

²⁷ Cohen and Werker, ‘The Political Economy of “Natural” Disasters’, pp. 795–819CrossRefGoogle Scholar

²⁸ Glantz, Michael H., ‘Nine Fallacies of Natural Disaster: The Case of the Sahel’, Climatic Change, 1 (1977), 69–84CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Keller, Edmond J., ‘Drought War and the Politics of Famine in Ethiopia and Eritrea’, Journal of Modern African Studies, 30 (1992), 609–624CrossRefGoogle Scholar

²⁹ Beardsley, Kyle and McQuinn, Brian, ‘Rebel Groups as Predatory Organizations: The Political Effects of the 2004 Tsunami in Indonesia and Sri Lanka’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 53 (2009), 624–645CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Brancati, Dawn, ‘Political Aftershocks: The Impact of Earthquakes on Intrastate Conflict’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 51 (2007), 715–743CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Miguel, Edward, Satyanath, Shanker and Sergenti, Ernest, ‘Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach’, Journal of Political Economy, 112 (2004), 725–753CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Nel, Philip and Righarts, Marjolein, ‘Natural Disasters and the Risk of Violent Civil Conflict’, International Studies Quarterly, 52 (2008), 159–185CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Salehyan, Idean, ‘From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet’, Journal of Peace Research, 45 (2008), 315–326CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Omelicheva, Mariya Y., ‘Natural Disasters: Triggers of Political Instability?’, International Interactions, 37 (2011), 441–465CrossRefGoogle Scholar

³⁰ Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson and James D. Morrow, ‘Political Survival and Endogenous Institutional Change’, Comparative Political Studies, 42 (2009), 167–197CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Smith, Alastair, ‘The Perils of Unearned Income’, Journal of Politics, 70 (2008), 780–793CrossRefGoogle Scholar

³¹ Chen, Are Poor Voters Easier to Buy Off with Money?; Chen, When Do Government Benefits Influence Voters’ Behavior?

³² Schelling, Thomas C., Micromotives and Macrobehavior (New York: W.W. Norton and Co., 1978)Google Scholar

Granovetter, Mark, ‘Threshold Models of Collective Behavior’, American Journal of Sociology, 83 (1978), 1420–1443CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Kuran, Timur, ‘Sparks and Prairie Fires: A Theory of Unanticipated Political Revolution’, Public Choice, 61 (1989), 41–74CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Lohmann, Suzanne, ‘The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig East Germany 1989–91’, World Politics, 47 (1994), 42–101CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Oliver, Pamela, Marwell, Gerald and Teixeira, Ruy, ‘A Theory of the Critical Mass: Interdependence Group Heterogeneity and the Production of Collective Action’, American Journal of Sociology, 94 (1985), 502–534Google Scholar

Ginkel, John and Smith, Alastair, ‘So You Say You Want a Revolution: A Game Theoretic Explanation of Revolution in Repressive Regimes’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 43 (1999), 291–316CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Tilly, Charles, From Mobilization to Revolution (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1978)Google Scholar

³³ Larkin, Emma, Everything is Broken: A Tale of Catastrophe in Burma (London: Penguin Press, 2010)Google Scholar

³⁴ The database is available at http://www.emdat.be/.

³⁵ Guha-Sapir, D. D. Hargitt and Hoyois, P., Thirty Years of Natural Disasters 1974–2003: The Numbers (Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium: Presses Universitaires de Louvain, 2004)Google Scholar

³⁶ Anbarci, Escaleras and Register, ‘Earthquake Fatalities’, pp. 1907–1933Google Scholar

Kahn, ‘The Death Toll from Natural Disasters’, pp. 271–284Google Scholar

Escaleras, Anbarci and Register, ‘Public Sector Corruption and Major Earthquakes: A Potentially Deadly Interaction’, p. 209–230CrossRefGoogle Scholar

³⁷ Chen, Are Poor Voters Easier to Buy Off with Money?; Chen, When Do Government Benefits Influence Voters’ Behavior?

³⁸ Healy and Neil Malhotra, ‘Random Events Economic Losses and Retrospective Voting’, pp. 193–208Google Scholar

³⁹ Available at http://www.databanksinternational.com/53.html.

⁴⁰ Goemans, H. E., Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Chiozza, Giacomo, ‘Introducing Archigos: A Data Set of Political Leaders’, Journal of Peace Research, 46 (2009), 269–283CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁴¹ Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson and James D. Morrow, The Logic of Political Survival.

⁴² Geddes, Barbara, Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003)CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁴³ Clarke, Kevin A. and Stone, Randall, ‘Democracy and the Logic of Political Survival’, American Political Science Review, 102 (2008), 387–392CrossRefGoogle Scholar

James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph M. Siverson and Alastair Smith, ‘Retesting Selectorate Theory: Separating the Effects of W from Other Elements of Democracy’, American Political Science Review, 102 (2008), 393–400CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁴⁴ In our ideal specification, we would like to use population density for each disaster. Since we explore all types of disasters by country-year, we have not found the general equivalent of an earthquake's epicenter; national population density is not a feasible alternative because there is high variance in population density within countries. However, our ongoing study of the effects of earthquakes addresses this issue.

⁴⁵ In order to control for a potential reporting bias, we performed the same analysis when there was at least one fatal disaster. The results are essentially the same. It is important to note that most empirical analyses of disasters use a linear model to explore disaster-related casualties. Nevertheless, to address potential concerns about the distribution of casualties, we estimated the same specifications using count models; our analyses using these models also produce similar results.

⁴⁶ The regions are given by the Correlates of War Project: Western Hemisphere, Europe, Africa, Middle East, Asia, and Oceania.

⁴⁷ Sen, ‘Public Action to Remedy Hunger’, p. 324–336CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Besley and Burgess, ‘The Political Economy of Government Responsiveness’, pp. 1415–1451Google Scholar

Anbarci, Escaleras and Register, ‘Earthquake Fatalities’, pp. 1907–1933Google Scholar

Kahn, ‘The Death Toll from Natural Disasters’, pp. 271–284Google Scholar

Escaleras, Anbarci and Register, ‘Public Sector Corruption and Major Earthquakes’, pp. 209–230Google Scholar

Stromberg, ‘Natural Disasters, Economic Development, and Humanitarian Aid’, pp. 199–222CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Toya and Skidmore, ‘Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters’, pp. 20–25CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Cohen and Werker, ‘The Political Economy of “Natural” Disasters’, pp. 795–819CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Raschky, ‘Institutions and the Losses from Natural Disasters’, pp. 627–634CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁴⁸ Beck, Neal and Katz, Jonathan, ‘Throwing Out the Baby with the Bath Water: A Comment on Green, Kim, and Yoon’, International Organization, 55 (2001), 487–495CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Green, Donald P., Kim, Soo Yeon and Yoon, David H., ‘Dirty Pool’, International Organization, 55 (2001), 441–468CrossRefGoogle Scholar

King, Gary, ‘Proper Nouns and Methodological Propriety: Pooling Dyads in International Relations Data’, International Organization, 55 (2001), 497–507CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁴⁹ Plümper, Thomas and Troeger, Vera E., ‘Efficient Estimation of Time-Invariant and Rarely Changing Variables in Finite Sample Panel Analyses with Unit Fixed Effects’, Political Analysis, 15 (2007), 124–139CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁵⁰ Greene, William, Econometric Analysis (New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 2003)Google Scholar

⁵¹ Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollenberg, Margareta and Strand, Hovard, ‘Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset’, Journal of Peace Research, 39 (2002), 615–637CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁵² Abney and Hill, ‘Natural Disasters as a Political Variable’, pp. 974–981Google Scholar

Healy and Neil Malhotra, ‘Random Events Economic Losses and Retrospective Voting’, pp. 193–208Google Scholar

Reeves, ‘Political Disaster Unilateral Powers Electoral Incentives and Presidential Disaster Declarations’, pp. 1–10Google Scholar

⁵³ Olson and Gawronski, ‘From Disaster Event to Political Crisis: A “5C+A” Framework for Analysis’, pp. 205–221CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁵⁴ Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. and Jones, Bradford S., Event History Modeling. A Guide for Social Scientists (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004)CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁵⁵ Licht, Amanda, Change Comes With Time: Interpreting Non-proportional Hazards in Event History Analyses (Iowa City: Working Paper, Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, 2008)Google Scholar

⁵⁶ Bruce Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, ‘Leader Survival Revolutions and the Nature of Government Finance’, American Journal of Political Science, 54 (2010), 936–950CrossRefGoogle Scholar