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A Reply to Clarke, Mishler and Whiteley

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 January 2009

David Sanders ,
Dave Marsh  and
Hugh Ward
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Extract

Clarke, Mishler and Whiteley (CMW) provide an interesting review and critique of our analysis of Mrs Thatcher's first-term popularity. They challenge our findings on two main grounds: (1) that we use orthodox time-series regression techniques inappropriately; and (2) that Box-Jenkins techniques are a superior vehicle for analysing government-popularity time series anyway. In this reply we seek to answer both of these general criticisms. We then outline our current – and, we believe, far more revealing – research strategy for analysing government-popularity data.

Type
Articles
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 20 , Issue 1 , January 1990 , pp. 83 - 90
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1990

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References

1 Hibbs, D., ‘Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Government among Occupational Groups’, American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 259–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

2 For the best review of the psephological literature, see Scarbrough, Elinor, ‘The British Electorate Twenty Years On: Electoral Change and Election Surveys’, British Journal of Political Science, 17 (1987), 219–46CrossRefGoogle Scholar. One work which does attempt to integrate the two bodies of research is Johnston, R. J., Pattie, C. J. and Allsopp, J. G., A Nation Dividing? The Electoral Map of Great Britain 1979–1987 (London: Longman, 1988).Google Scholar

3 Mosley, P., ‘Popularity Functions and the Role of the Media: A Pilot Study on the Popular Press’, British Journal of Political Science, 14 (1984), 117–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

4 Several times a year Gallup ask their main survey respondents a question about their newspaper readership. This means that for these months it is possible to match voting intentions with newspaper readership and in turn to relate this to newspaper coverage of the economy.