Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-5nwft Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-17T01:37:24.665Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

When Is A Pledge A Pledge?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 October 2021

Suthan Krishnarajan*
Affiliation:
Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark;
Carsten Jensen
Affiliation:
Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
*
*Corresponding author. Email: suthan@ps.au.dk

Abstract

Despite the central role of election pledges in modern representative democracy, it remains uncertain how voters define pledges. We examine this by focusing on four rhetorical dimensions of political statements: the pledge giver, the formulation of commitment, the policy content and quantification. In three conjoint experiments on representative samples totalling around 6,000 respondents in the United States, Britain and Denmark, we find remarkably consistent results. On the one hand, voters consistently differentiate between statements in a highly focused manner: a promise is a promise if it is sincere and realistic – no matter who made it and whether it can be checked. On the other hand, voters are not willing to hold their party accountable for a given statement – even if they consider it an election pledge. We demonstrate that this is the perceptual logic of election pledges in Western democracies.

Type
Letter
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adams, J, Ezrow, L and Somer-Topcu, Z (2014) Do voters respond to party manifestos or to a wider information environment? An analysis of mass–elite linkages on European integration. American Journal of Political Science 58, 967978.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aytaç, SE, Rau, EG and Stokes, S (2020) Beyond opportunity costs: campaign messages, anger and turnout among the unemployed. British Journal of Political Science 50, 13251339.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Banducci, S, Giebler, H and Kritzinger, S (2017) Knowing more from less: how the information environment increases knowledge of party positions. British Journal of Political Science 47, 571588.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dupont, JC et al. (2019) Which kind of political campaign messages do people perceive as election pledges? Electoral Studies 57, 121130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gillion, DQ, Ladd, JM and Meredith, M (2020) Party polarization, ideological sorting and the emergence of the US partisan gender gap. British Journal of Political Science 50(4), 12171243.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hainmueller, J, Hopkins, DJ and Yamamoto, T (2014) Causal inference in conjoint analysis: understanding multidimensional choices via stated preference experiments. Political Analysis 22, 130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Han, KJ (2020) Beclouding party position as an electoral strategy: voter polarization, issue priority and position blurring. British Journal of Political Science 50, 653675.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Imai, K and Yamamoto, T (2013) Identification and sensitivity analysis for multiple causal mechanisms: revisiting evidence from framing experiments. Political Analysis 21, 141171.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krishnarajan, S and Jensen, C (2021) Replication Data for: When Is a Pledge a Pledge?, https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/X73XUM, Harvard Dataverse, V1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindgren, E (2017) Campaigning in poetry, governing in prose: pre- and post-election effects of election pledge rhetoric. Doctoral dissertation in political science, University of Gothenburg.Google Scholar
Lindgren, E (2018) Changing policy with words: how persuasive words in election pledges influence voters’ beliefs about policies. Mass Communication and Society 21, 425449.Google Scholar
Lindgren, E and Naurin, E (2017) Election pledge rhetoric: selling policy with words. International Journal of Communication 11, 21982219.Google Scholar
Lodge, M and Taber, CS (2013) The Rationalizing Voter. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansergh, L and Thomson, R (2007) Election pledges, party competition, and policymaking. Comparative Politics 39, 311329.Google Scholar
Matthieß, T (2020) Retrospective pledge voting: a comparative study of the electoral consequences of government parties’ pledge fulfilment. European Journal of Political Research, 59(4), 774796.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Müller, S (2020) Media coverage of campaign promises throughout the electoral cycle. Political Communication 37(5), 696718.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naurin, E (2011) Election Promises, Party Behaviour and Voter Perceptions. Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naurin, E, Royed, TJ and Thomson, R (eds) (2019) Party Mandates and Democracy: Making, Breaking, and Keeping Election Pledges in Twelve Countries. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naurin, E, Soroka, S and Markwat, N (2019) Asymmetric accountability: an experimental investigation of biases in evaluations of governments’ election pledges. Comparative Political Studies 52, 22072234.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Royed, TJ (1996) Testing the mandate model in Britain and the United States: evidence from the Reagan and Thatcher eras. British Journal of Political Science 26, 4580.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spoon, J-J and Klüver, H (2019) Party convergence and vote switching: explaining mainstream party decline across Europe. European Journal of Political Research 58, 10211042.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thomson, R (2001) The programme to policy linkage: the fulfilment of election pledges on socio-economic policy in The Netherlands, 1986–1998. European Journal of Political Research 40, 171197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thomson, R (2011) Citizens’ evaluations of the fulfillment of election pledges: evidence from Ireland. The Journal of Politics 73, 187201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thomson, R et al. (2017) The fulfillment of parties’ election pledges: a comparative study on the impact of power sharing. American Journal of Political Science 61, 527542.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tilley, J and Hobolt, SB (2011) Is the government to blame? An experimental test of how partisanship shapes perceptions of performance and responsibility. The Journal of Politics 73, 316330.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Krishnarajan and Jensen supplementary material

Krishnarajan and Jensen supplementary material

Download Krishnarajan and Jensen supplementary material(File)
File 6.9 MB
Supplementary material: Link

Krishnarajan and Jensen Dataset

Link