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Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 April 2021

Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos  and
Cesar Augusto Marchioro Open the ORCID record for Cesar Augusto Marchioro [Opens in a new window]
Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos
Affiliation:
Federal University of Santa Catarina, Campus Curitibanos, Curitibanos, Santa Catarina, Brazil
Cesar Augusto Marchioro*
Affiliation:
Department of Agriculture, Biodiversity and Forests, Post-graduate Programme in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystem, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Campus Curitibanos, Curitibanos, Santa Catarina, Brazil
*
Author for correspondence: Cesar Augusto Marchioro, Email: cesmarc@gmail.com
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Abstract

The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

Keywords

Climate changedegree-daydevelopment rate modelsglobal warminginsect pestphenological modelsmall tomato borer
Type
Research Paper
Information
Bulletin of Entomological Research , Volume 111 , Issue 4 , August 2021 , pp. 476 - 484
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Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press

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