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A Turbulent Silk Road: China's Vulnerable Foreign Policy in the Middle East and North Africa

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 February 2021

Andrea Ghiselli  and
Pippa Morgan Open the ORCID record for Pippa Morgan [Opens in a new window]
Andrea Ghiselli
Affiliation:
School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, and ChinaMed Project, TOChina Hub. Email: andreaghiselli@fudan.edu.cn.
Pippa Morgan*
Affiliation:
Division of Social Science, Duke Kunshan University.
*
Email: pippa.morgan@dukekunshan.edu.cn (corresponding author).
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Abstract

The nexus between China's human and economic presence abroad and its security policy is increasingly important. Within this nexus, this study statistically explores whether and to what extent Chinese contractors reduce the number of Chinese nationals they send to work in North Africa, the Middle East and the Horn of Africa when the security situation in host states worsens. We find no significant evidence that either warnings from Chinese embassies and consulates to leave host countries or expert perceptions of host stability influence the number of Chinese workers. Worker numbers appear to decrease significantly only in the aftermath of large-scale violent events. These findings suggest that Chinese companies are relatively acceptant of security risks and uncertainties, despite the decade-long regulatory efforts of the Chinese government to make them more security-conscious overseas and, thus, to reduce pressure to use diplomatically and economically expensive military means for their protection.

摘要

摘要

中国在海外的人力和经济存在与其安全政策之间的联系日益重要。这篇文章从统计学角度探讨了在东道国安全形势恶化时，中国承包商是否以及在多大程度上减少了他们派往北非、中东和非洲之角工作的中国工人的数量。我们发现，无论是中国使领馆发出的离开东道国的警告，还是专家对东道国局势的看法，都没有显著地影响中国工人的数量。工人人数似乎只有在大规模暴力事件之后会锐减。这些研究结果表明，尽管中国政府进行了长达十年的监管努力，以提高企业在海外的安全意识，从而减少使用外交和经济上昂贵的军事手段保护他们的压力，但中国企业对海外安全风险和不确定性的接受度依旧相对较高。

Keywords

Chinese foreign policyBelt and Road InitiativeChinese overseas interestsMiddle East and North Africa中国对外政策一带一路中国海外利益西亚北非。
Type
Research Article
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 247 , September 2021 , pp. 641 - 661
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Copyright
Copyright © SOAS University of London, 2021

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