The COVID-19 crisis has severely stressed our healthcare system and pushed our economy to the brink. This long emergency will probably cause years of severe suffering in every region. Health expenses greatly increased, supply chains were disrupted, and governments coped with much less revenue. Good clinicians plan for ALL contingencies, and we need to consider that the current disaster may get much worse. How can we adapt psychiatry to a long emergency? This goes far beyond previous work on crisis standards of care because the emergency is severe, prolonged, and widespread. If we had to spend much less on psychotropics, which meds stay on the formulary? If we have to close hospitals, which patients get a bed? What adaptations could be used if demand exceeds the supply of providers? Very little is known about how to make severe, permanent cuts to healthcare. Our previous systematic review found no scholarship addressing the ethics of severe and prolonged healthcare rationing. Global catastrophes need a global health policy, but this one has no experts. The present study starts the project by surveying experts with related experience that could be useful in future plans.

We used purposive sampling to find 18 professionals with experience in healthcare rationing from underserved, indigenous communities, homeless programs, and African nations. We also interviewed ethicists, pharmacists, administrators, NGO clinicians, and military. Interviews were transcribed and coded using basic inductive techniques. Because so little is known about this topic, we used grounded theory, an iterative approach to guide further sampling, refine interviews, and make some preliminary conclusions.

Participants all agreed this crisis planning is extremely important and complex. They described diverse concerns regarding ethical decision making, with some having confidence with top-down government policy, and others recommending a grassroots approach. Minority participants had less confidence in government. There was no consensus on any best ethical framework. Most had confidence that clinicians will ultimately do the right thing. Native American leaders had confidence in a holistic, preventive approach. All agreed that social justice should be central in measuring economic impact of long emergencies and choosing ethical options. We collected suggestions for innovative approaches to rationing.

This research program illuminates the difficult ethical questions about adapting psychiatry to a prolonged, widespread, and severe emergency. Our interviews identify areas where severe but ethical cuts can be made in medications, hospitals, clinical staff, and administration. Next steps include evidence-based formularies, utilitarian staff cuts, and ethical standards for closing beds or revamping state hospitals. Underserved and diverse communities with rationing experience must have a voice in the discussion.