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COPEWELL: A Conceptual Framework and System Dynamics Model for Predicting Community Functioning and Resilience After Disasters

  • Jonathan M. Links (a1) (a2), Brian S. Schwartz (a1) (a3), Sen Lin (a4), Norma Kanarek (a1), Judith Mitrani-Reiser (a4), Tara Kirk Sell (a1) (a5), Crystal R. Watson (a1) (a5), Doug Ward (a6), Cathy Slemp (a7), Robert Burhans (a7), Kimberly Gill (a8), Tak Igusa (a4), Xilei Zhao (a4), Benigno Aguirre (a8), Joseph Trainor (a8), Joanne Nigg (a8), Thomas Inglesby (a1) (a5), Eric Carbone (a9) and James M. Kendra (a8)...
Abstract
Abstract Objective

Policy-makers and practitioners have a need to assess community resilience in disasters. Prior efforts conflated resilience with community functioning, combined resistance and recovery (the components of resilience), and relied on a static model for what is inherently a dynamic process. We sought to develop linked conceptual and computational models of community functioning and resilience after a disaster.

Methods

We developed a system dynamics computational model that predicts community functioning after a disaster. The computational model outputted the time course of community functioning before, during, and after a disaster, which was used to calculate resistance, recovery, and resilience for all US counties.

Results

The conceptual model explicitly separated resilience from community functioning and identified all key components for each, which were translated into a system dynamics computational model with connections and feedbacks. The components were represented by publicly available measures at the county level. Baseline community functioning, resistance, recovery, and resilience evidenced a range of values and geographic clustering, consistent with hypotheses based on the disaster literature.

Conclusions

The work is transparent, motivates ongoing refinements, and identifies areas for improved measurements. After validation, such a model can be used to identify effective investments to enhance community resilience.(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;page 1 of 11)

Copyright
Corresponding author
Correspondence and reprint requests to Jonathan M. Links, Johns Hopkins University, 258 Garland Hall, 3400 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21218 (e-mail: jlinks1@jhu.edu).
Linked references
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This list contains references from the content that can be linked to their source. For a full set of references and notes please see the PDF or HTML where available.

5. RL Pfefferbaum , B Pfefferbaum , RL Van Horn , et al. Building community resilience to disasters through a community-based intervention: CART applications. J Emerg Manag. 2013;11(2):151-159. https://doi.org/10.5055/jem.2013.0134.

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20. PS Hovmand . Community Based System Dynamics. Springer; 2014; https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-8763-0. Accessed May 9, 2017.

23. RM Sakia . The Box-Cox transformation technique - a review. Statistician. 1992;41(2):169-178. https://doi.org/10.2307/2348250.

25. FH Norris , SP Stevens , B Pfefferbaum , et al. Community resilience as a metaphor, theory, set of capacities, and strategy for disaster readiness. Am J Community Psychol. 2008;41(1-2):127-150. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10464-007-9156-6.

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Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness
  • ISSN: 1935-7893
  • EISSN: 1938-744X
  • URL: /core/journals/disaster-medicine-and-public-health-preparedness
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