Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-c47g7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-24T16:49:44.162Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

ARE MAJORITY MINORITY DISTRICTS TOO SAFE?

A look at the Alabama State Legislature

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 April 2019

Brandon R. Davis*
Affiliation:
Political Theory Project, Brown University
*
*Corresponding author: Brandon Davis, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Political Theory Project, Brown University, Box 2005, 8 Fones Alley, Providence, RI 02912. E-mail: Brandon_Davis@brown.edu

Abstract

How does gerrymandering affect intraparty and interparty electoral competition in state legislatures? Research has shown that electoral competition produces better representation and that descriptive representation positively affects substantive representation or policy outcomes. However, other studies have found an ever increasing incumbency advantage. I argue that the incumbency advantage within Majority Minority Districts is significant and distinct from that of majority White Democrat and Republican districts. I estimate levels of intraparty and interparty competition among Majority Minority Districts, majority White Democrat districts, and majority White Republican districts in the state legislature of Alabama. I use majority White Democrat districts as an intraparty comparison group because of African American’s statistically high support for the Democrat Party. Using three separate measures of competitiveness, I find racial gerrymandering in Alabama has a significant and sui generis negative effect on competition within Majority Minority Districts, compared to majority White districts.

Type
State of the Art
Copyright
Copyright © Hutchins Center for African and African American Research 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Abramowitz, Alan I. (1975). Name Familiarity, Reputation, and the Incumbency Effect in a Congressional Election. The Western Political Quarterly, 28(4): 668684.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramowitz, Alan I., Alexander, Brad, and Gunning, Matthew (2006). Incumbency, Redistricting, and the Decline of Competition in US House Elections. Journal of Politics, 68(1): 7588.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldrich, John H. (2011). Why Parties?: A Second Look. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alford, John R., and Hibbing, John R. (1981). Increased Incumbency Advantage in the House. The Journal of Politics, 43(04): 10421061.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bailey, Michael A. (2005). Welfare and the Multifaceted Decision to Move. American Political Science Review, 99(1): 125135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ballotpedia (2018a). Partisan Composition of State Houses. <https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_composition_of_state_houses> (accessed July 9, 2018).+(accessed+July+9,+2018).>Google Scholar
Ballotpedia (2018b). Partisan Composition of State Senates. <https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_composition_of_state_senates> (accessed July 9, 2018).+(accessed+July+9,+2018).>Google Scholar
Ballotpedia (2018c). United States Congressional Delegations from Alabama. <https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Alabama> (accessed July 9, 2018).+(accessed+July+9,+2018).>Google Scholar
Berry, William D., Fording, Richard C., and Hanson, Russell L. (2003). Reassessing the Race to the Bottom in State Welfare Policy. Journal of Politics, 65(2): 327349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bhatti, Yosef, and Hansen, Kasper M. (2016). The Effect of Residential Concentration on Voter Turnout among Ethnic Minorities. International Migration Review, 50(4): 9771004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blinder, Alan and Wines, Michael (2018). North Carolina Is Ordered to Redraw Its Congressional Map. New York Times, January 9. <https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/us/north-carolina-gerrymander.html> (accessed July 9, 2018).+(accessed+July+9,+2018).>Google Scholar
Brace, Kimball, Handley, Lisa, Niemi, Richard G., and Stanley, Harold W. (1995). Minority Turnout and the Creation of Majority-Minority Districts. American Politics Quarterly, 23(2): 190203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brady, David W., Han, Hahrie, and Pope, Jeremy C. (2007). Primary Elections and Candidate Ideology: Out of Step with the Primary Electorate? Legislative Studies Quarterly, 32(1): 79105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brunell, Thomas (2010). Redistricting and Representation: Why Competitive Elections are Bad for America. New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butler, Daniel Mark (2009). A Regression Discontinuity Design Analysis of the Incumbency Advantage and Tenure in the US House. Electoral Studies, 28(1): 123128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cain, Bruce E. (1985). Assessing the Partisan Effects of Redistricting. The American Political Science Review, 79(2): 320333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cameron, Charles, Epstein, David, and O’Halloran, Sharyn (1996). Do Majority-Minority Districts Maximize Substantive Black Representation in Congress? The American Political Science Review, 90(4): 794812.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canon, David T. (1999a). Electoral Systems and the Representation of Minority Interests in Legislatures. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 24(3): 331385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canon, David T. (1999b). Race, Redistricting, and Representation: The Unintended Consequences of Black Majority Districts. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Canon, David T., Schousen, Matthew M., and Sellers, Patrick J. (1996). The Supply Side of Congressional Redistricting: Race and Strategic Politicians, 1972–1992. The Journal of Politics, 58(3): 846862.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, John M., Niemi, Richard G., and Powell, Lynda W. (2000). Incumbency and the Probability of Reelection in State Legislative Elections. Journal of Politics, 62(3): 671700.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, Christopher J. (2014). Collective Descriptive Representation and Black Voter Mobilization in 2008. Political Behavior, 36(2): 315333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cover, Albert D. (1977). One Good Term Deserves another: The Advantage of Incumbency in Congressional Elections. American Journal of Political Science, 21(3): 523541.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Gary W., and Katz, Jonathan N. (1996). Why did the Incumbency Advantage in US House Elections Grow? American Journal of Political Science, 40(2): 478497.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Gary W., and Katz, Jonathan N. (2002). Elbridge Gerry’s Salamander: The Electoral Consequences of the Reapportionment Revolution. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Gary W., and Scott, Morgenstern (1993). The Increasing Advantage of Incumbency in the US States. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 18(4): 495514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, Christopher, and Stimson, James A. (2012). Ideology in America. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S. (1971). The Advantage of Incumbency in Congressional Elections. Polity, 3(3): 395405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fairdosi, Amir Shawn, and Rogowski, Jon C. (2015). Candidate Race, Partisanship, and Political Participation: When do Black Candidates Increase Black Turnout? Political Research Quarterly, 68(2): 337349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feldman, Stanley, and Johnston, Christopher (2013). Understanding the Determinants of Political Ideology: Implications of Structural Complexity. Political Psychology, 35(3): 337358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. (1977). The Case of the Vanishing Marginals: The Bureaucracy Did It. American Political Science Review, 71(1): 177181.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fraga, Bernard L. (2016). Redistricting and the Causal Impact of Race on Voter Turnout. The Journal of Politics, 78(1): 1934.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garand, James C., and Gross, Donald A. (1984). Changes in the Vote Margins for Congressional Candidates: A Specification of Historical Trends. American Political Science Review, 78(1): 1730.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gay, Claudine (2001). The Effect of Black Congressional Representation on Political Participation. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and King, Gary (1990). Estimating Incumbency Advantage without Bias. American Journal of Political Science, 34(4): 11421164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Griffin, John D., and Keane, Michael (2006). Descriptive Representation and the Composition of African American Turnout. American Journal of Political Science, 50(4): 9981012.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hacker, Andrew (1986). Congressional Districting: The Issue of Equal Representation. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
Hajnal, Zoltan L. (2009). Who Loses in American Democracy? A Count of Votes Demonstrates the Limited Representation of African Americans. American Political Science Review, 103(1): 3757.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hajnal, Zoltan, Lajevardi, Nazita, and Nielson, Lindsay (2017). Voter Identification Laws and the Suppression of Minority Votes. The Journal of Politics, 79(2): 363379.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hawley, George (2013). Voting and Migration Patterns in the US. New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hayes, Danny, and McKee, Seth C. (2012). The Intersection of Redistricting, Race, and Participation. American Journal of Political Science, 56(1): 115130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hogan, Robert E. (2003). Sources of Competition in State Legislative Primary Elections. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 28(1): 103126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holbrook, Thomas M., and Van Dunk, Emily (1993). Electoral Competition in the American States. American Political Science Review, 87(4): 955962.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hopkins, Daniel J., and McCabe, Katherine T. (2012). After It’s Too Late: Estimating the Policy Impacts of Black Mayoralties in US Cities. American Politics Research, 40(4): 665700.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. (1981). Incumbents’ Advantages in the 1978 US Congressional Elections. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 6(2): 183200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jewell, Malcolm E., and Breaux, David (1988). The Effect of Incumbency on State Legislative Elections. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 13(4): 495514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Juenke, Eric Gonzalez, and Preuhs, Robert R. (2012). Irreplaceable Legislators? Rethinking Minority Representatives in the New Century. American Journal of Political Science, 56(3): 705715.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kazee, Thomas A. (Ed.) (1994). Who Runs for Congress?: Ambition, Context, and Candidate Emergence. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly.Google Scholar
King, Gary, and Gelman, Andrew (1991). Systemic Consequences of Incumbency Advantage in US House Elections. American Journal of Political Science, 35(1): 110138.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitt, Steven D., and Wolfram, Catherine D. (1997). Decomposing the Sources of Incumbency Advantage in the US House. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 22(1): 4560.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liptak, Adam (2018). Supreme Court Avoids an Answer on Partisan Gerrymandering. The New York Times, June 18. <https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/us/politics/supreme-court-wisconsin-maryland-gerrymander-vote.html> (accessed July 9, 2018).+(accessed+July+9,+2018).>Google Scholar
Lublin, David (1997). The Election of African Americans and Latinos to the US House of Representatives, 1972–1994. American Politics Quarterly, 25(3): 269286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lublin, David (1999). Racial Redistricting and African-American Representation: A Critique of Do Majority-Minority Districts Maximize Substantive Black Representation in Congress? American Political Science Review, 93(1): 183186.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lublin, David, and Stephen Voss, D. (2000). Racial Redistricting and Realignment in Southern State Legislatures. American Journal of Political Science, 44(4): 792810.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maestas, Cherie D., Fulton, Sarah, Maisel, L. Sandy, and Stone, Walter J. (2006). When to Risk it? Institutions, Ambitions, and the Decision to Run for the US House. American Political Science Review, 100(2): 195208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marschall, Melissa J., and Anirudh VS Ruhil (2006). The Pomp of Power: Black Mayoralties in Urban America. Social Science Quarterly, 87(4): 828850.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Minta, Michael D. (2009). Legislative Oversight and the Substantive Representation of Black and Latino Interests in Congress. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 34(2): 193218.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
National Conference of State Legislatures (2018). State Partisan Composition. <http://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/partisan-composition.aspx> (accessed July 9, 2018).+(accessed+July+9,+2018).>Google Scholar
NPR (2018). Supreme Court Leaves ‘Wild West’ of Partisan Gerrymandering in Place – For Now. All Things Considered (radio broadcast). <https://www.npr.org/2018/06/18/606017026/supreme-court-punts-on-partisan-gerrymandering-leaving-status-quo-in-place> (accessed July 9, 2018).+(accessed+July+9,+2018).>Google Scholar
New York Times (2017). Election 2016: Alabama Results. <https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama> (accessed July 9, 2018).+(accessed+July+9,+2018).>Google Scholar
Oppenheimer, Bruce I. (2005). Deep Red and Blue Congressional Districts: The Causes and Consequences of Declining Party Competitiveness. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Petrocik, John R., and Desposato, Scott W. (1998). The Partisan Consequences of Majority-Minority Redistricting in the South, 1992 and 1994. The Journal of Politics, 60(3): 613633.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pew Research Center (n.d.). Party affiliation by State (2014). Religion & Public Life: Religious Landscape Study. Pew Charitable Trust. <http://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/compare/party-affiliation/by/state/> (accessed July 9, 2018).+(accessed+July+9,+2018).>Google Scholar
Philpot, Tasha S., Shaw, Daron R., and McGowen, Ernest B. (2009). Winning the Race: Black Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Election. The Public Opinion Quarter, 73(5): 9951022.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pitkin, Hanna F. (1967). The Concept of Representation. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Praino, Rodrigo, and Stockemer, Daniel (2012). Tempus Edax Rerum: Measuring the Incumbency Advantage in the US House of Representatives. The Social Science Journal, 49(3): 270274.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Preuhs, Robert R. (2006). The Conditional Effects of Minority Descriptive Representation: Black Legislators and Policy Influence in the American States. Journal of Politics, 68(3): 585599.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rocha, Rene R., Tolbert, Caroline J., Bowen, Daniel C., and Clark, Christopher J. (2010). Race and Turnout: Does Descriptive Representation in State Legislatures Increase Minority Voting? Political Research Quarterly, 63(4): 890907.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Salamon, Lester M., and Van Evera, Stephen (1973). Fear, Apathy, and Discrimination: A Test of Three Explanations of Political Participation. American Political Science Review, 67(4): 12881306.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwindt-Bayer, Leslie A., and Mishler, William (2005). An Integrated Model of Women’s Representation. Journal of Politics, 67(2): 407428.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shah, Paru R., Marschall, Melissa J., and Anirudh VS Ruhil (2013). Are We There Yet? The Voting Rights Act and Black Representation on City Councils, 1981–2006. Journal of Politics, 75(4): 9931008.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shelby County, Ala. v. Holder (2013), 133 S.Ct. 2612, 2620.Google Scholar
Shotts, Kenneth W. (2001). The Effect of Majority-Minority Mandates on Partisan Gerrymandering. American Journal of Political Science, 45(1): 120135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shufeldt, Gregory, and Flavin, Patrick (2012). Two Distinct Concepts: Party Competition in Government and Electoral Competition in the American States. State Politics & Policy Quarterly, 12(3): 330342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Swain, Carol Miller (1993). Black Faces, Black Interests: The Representation of African Americans in Congress. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Tate, Katherine (1991). Black Political Participation in the 1984 and 1988 Presidential Elections. American Political Science Review, 85(4): 11591176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tate, Katherine (1994). From Protest to Politics: The New Black Voters in American Elections. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Thernstrom, Abigail M. (1987). Whose Votes Count?: Affirmative Action and Minority Voting Rights. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Tufte, Edward R. (1973). The Relationship between Seats and Votes in Two-Party Systems. American Political Science Review, 67(2): 540554.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Voting Rights Act of 1965. Public Law 89–110, 89th Cong., 1st Sess.Google Scholar
Walton, Hanes (1985). Invisible Politics: Black Political Behavior. New York: SUNY Press.Google Scholar
Wang, Tova Andrea (2012). The Politics of Voter Suppression: Defending and Expanding Americans’ Right to Vote. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
The Washington Post (2018). Alabama Senate Election Results. <https://www.washingtonpost.com/special-election-results/alabama/?utm_term=.c2043c151272> (accessed November 10, 2018).+(accessed+November+10,+2018).>Google Scholar
Wyrick, Thomas L. (1991). Management of Political Influence: Gerrymandering in the 1980s. American Politics Quarterly, 19(4): 396416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar