Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-gtxcr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T20:44:17.790Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

TESTING STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN PARTIALLY LINEAR MODELS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 March 2010

Abstract

We consider two tests of structural change for partially linear time-series models. The first tests for structural change in the parametric component, based on the cumulative sums of gradients from a single semiparametric regression. The second tests for structural change in the parametric and nonparametric components simultaneously, based on the cumulative sums of weighted residuals from the same semiparametric regression. We derive the limiting distributions of both tests under the null hypothesis of no structural change and for sequences of local alternatives. We show that the tests are generally not asymptotically pivotal under the null but may be free of nuisance parameters asymptotically under further asymptotic stationarity conditions. Our tests thus complement the conventional instability tests for parametric models. To improve the finite-sample performance of our tests, we also propose a wild bootstrap version of our tests and justify its validity. Finally, we conduct a small set of Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the finite-sample properties of the tests.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

The authors gratefully thank Oliver Linton and two anonymous referees for their many constructive comments on the previous versions of the paper. They also thank Peter Robinson, Rong Chen, Jiti Gao, Yong Zhou, and the participants of FERM 2007 in Beijing and the 2008 International Symposium on Nonlinear Time Series in Xiamen for their valuable comments. The first author gratefully acknowledges financial support from the NSFC under grants 70501001 and 70601001.

References

REFERENCES

Andrews, D.W.K. (1993) Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica 61, 821856.10.2307/2951764CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andrews, D.W.K. & Ploberger, W. (1994) Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Econometrica 62, 13831414.10.2307/2951753Google Scholar
Aneiros-Pérez, G., Gonzalez-Mánteiga, W., & Reboredo-Nogueira, J.C. (2006) A Partially Linear Regression-Based Test for the Forward Premium Hypothesis. Mimeo, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela.Google Scholar
Bachmeier, L. & Li, Q. (2002) Is the term structure nonlinear? A semiparametric investigation. Applied Economics Letters 9, 151153.10.1080/13504850110053275CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bai, J. (1996) Testing for parameter constancy in linear regressions: An empirical distribution function approach. Econometrica 64, 597622.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Billingsley, P. (1999) Convergence of Probability Measures, 2nd ed. Wiley.10.1002/9780470316962Google Scholar
Bosq, D. (1996) Nonparametric Statistics for Stochastic Processes: Estimation and Prediction. Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
Brown, R.L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J.M. (1975) Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 37, 149163.Google Scholar
Cavaliere, G. & Taylor, A.M.R. (2006) Testing for a change in persistence in the presence of a volatility shift. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 68 (supplement), 761781.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chow, G.C. (1960) Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica 28, 591605.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Delgado, M.A. & Fiteni, I. (2002) External bootstrap tests for parameter stability. Journal of Econometrics 109, 275303.10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00115-XCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Delgado, M.A. & Hidalgo, J. (2000) Nonparametric inference on structural breaks. Journal of Econometrics 96, 113144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engle, R.F., Granger, C.W.J., Rice, J., & Weiss, A. (1986) Semiparametric estimates of the relation between weather and electricity sales. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81, 310320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fan, Y. & Li, Q. (1999) Root-n consistent estimation of partially linear time series models. Journal of Nonparametric Statistics 11, 251269.Google Scholar
Gaul, J. & Theissen, E. (2006) A Partially Linear Approach to Modelling the Dynamics of Spot and Futures Prices. Mimeo. Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn.Google Scholar
Giné, E. & Zinn, J. (1990) Bootstrapping general empirical measures. Annals of Probability 18, 851869.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, B.E. (2000a) Testing for structural change in conditional models. Journal of Econometrics 97, 93115.10.1016/S0304-4076(99)00068-8Google Scholar
Hansen, B.E. (2000b) Sample splitting and threshold estimation. Econometrica 68, 575603.Google Scholar
Hansen, B.E. (2008) Uniform convergence rates for kernel estimation with dependent data. Econometric Theory 24, 726748.Google Scholar
Härdle, W., Liang, H., & Gao, J. (2000) Partially Linear Models. Physica-Verlag.Google Scholar
Herrndorf, N. (1985) A functional central limit theorem for strongly mixing sequences of random variables. Zeitschrift Für Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und Verwandte Gebiete 69, 541550.10.1007/BF00532665CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Juhl, T. & Xiao, Z. (2005a) Partially linear models with unit root. Econometric Theory 21, 877906.Google Scholar
Juhl, T. & Xiao, Z. (2005b) Testing for cointegration using partially linear models. Journal of Econometrics 124, 363394.10.1016/j.jeconom.2004.02.007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krämer, W., Ploberger, W., & Alt, R. (1988) Testing for structural change in dynamic models. Econometrica 56, 13551369.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuan, C.M. & Hornik, K. (1995) The generalized fluctuation test: A unifying view. Econometric Reviews 14, 135161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, S. & Park, S. (2001) The CUSUM of squares test for scale change in infinite order moving average processes. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 28, 625644.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, Y. (2003) Effects of Introducing Five-Day Work Week in Korean Labor Market: A Semiparametric Vector Error Correction Approach. Mimeo, Department of Economics, Yale University.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Li, Q. & Wooldridge, J.M. (2002) Semiparametric estimation of partially linear models for dependent data with generated regressors. Econometric Theory 18, 625645.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Linton, O.B. (1995) Second order approximation in the partially linear regression model. Econometrica 63, 10791113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Page, E.S. (1955) A test for change in a parameter occurring at an unknown point. Biometrika 42, 523527.Google Scholar
Ploberger, W. & Krämer, W. (1992) The CUSUM test with OLS residuals. Econometrica 56, 13551369.Google Scholar
Pollard, D. (1984) Convergence of Stochastic Processes. Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
Robinson, P.M. (1988) Root-n-consistent semiparametric regression. Econometrica 56, 931954.10.2307/1912705Google Scholar
Robinson, P.M. (1991) Consistent nonparametric entropy-based testing. Review of Economic Studies 58, 437453.Google Scholar
Su, L. & Xiao, Z. (2008) Testing structural change in time-series nonparametric regression models. Statistics and Its Interface 1, 347366.Google Scholar
Sun, S. & Chiang, C.-Y. (1997) Limiting behavior of the perturbed empirical distribution functions evaluated at U-statistics for strongly mixing sequences of random variables. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Stochastic Analysis 10, 320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wu, G. & Xiao, Z. (2002) A generalized partially linear model of asymmetric volatility. Journal of Empirical Finance 9, 287319.Google Scholar
Xu, W.-L. (2006) A note on the optimality of generalized cross-validation bandwidth selection in partially linear models with kernel smoothing estimator. Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica 22, 345352.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yoshihara, K. (1976) Limiting behavior of U-statistics for stationary, absolutely regular processes. Zeitschrift Für Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und Verwandte Gebiete 35, 237252.Google Scholar