Skip to main content
×
Home

Influence of sea level rise on discounting, resource use and migration in small-island communities: an agent-based modelling approach

  • ADAM DOUGLAS HENRY (a1), ANDREAS EGELUND CHRISTENSEN (a2), REBECCA HOFMANN (a3), IVO STEIMANIS (a4) and BJÖRN VOLLAN (a4)...
Summary
SUMMARY

Time discounting – the degree to which individuals value current more than future resources – is an important component of natural resource conservation. As a response to climate change impacts in island communities, such as sea level rise, discounting the future can be a rational response due to increased stress on natural resources and uncertainty about whether future generations will have the same access to the same resources. By incorporating systematic responses of discount rates into models of resource conservation, realistic expectations of future human responses to climate change and associated resource stress may be developed. This paper illustrates the importance of time discounting through a theoretical agent-based model of resource use in island communities. A discount rate change can dramatically change projections about future migration and community-based conservation efforts. Our simulation results show that an increase in discount rates due to a credible information shock about future climate change impacts is likely to speed resource depletion. The negative impacts of climate change are therefore likely to be underestimated if changes in discount rates and emerging migration patterns are not taken into account.

Copyright
Corresponding author
*Correspondence: Prof Dr Björn Vollan email: bjoern.vollan@wiwi.uni-marburg.de
Footnotes
Hide All

Supplementary material can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892917000339

Footnotes
References
Hide All
Albert S., Leon J.X., Grinham A.R., Church J.A., Gibbes B.R. & Woodroffe C.D. (2016) Interactions between sea-level rise and wave exposure on reef island dynamics in the Solomon Islands. Environmental Research Letters 11: 54011.
Alkire W.H. (1965) Lamotrek atoll and inter-island socioeconomic ties [www document]. URL https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/handle/2142/61057
Bar-Gill O. & Fershtman C. (2005) Public policy with endogenous preferences. Journal of Public Economic Theory 7: 841857.
Bauer M., Blattman C., Chytilová J., Henrich J., Miguel E. & Mitts T. (2016) Can war foster cooperation? National Bureau of Economic Research [www document]. URL http://www.nber.org/papers/w22312
Bayliss-Smith T., Gough K.V., Christensen A.E. & Kristensen S.P. (2010) Managing Ontong Java: social institutions for production and governance of atoll resources in Solomon Islands. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography 31: 5569.
Becker M., Meyssignac B., Letetrel C., Llovel W., Cazenave A. & Delcroix T. (2012) Sea level variations at tropical Pacific Islands since 1950. Global and Planetary Change 80–81: 8598.
Bénabou R. & Tirole J. (2003) Intrinsic and extrinsic motivation. The Review of Economic Studies 70: 489520.
Benjamin D., Choi J. & Strickland A.J. (2010) Social identity and preferences. American Economic Review 100: 19131928.
Blake P.R., Rand D.G., Tingley D. & Warneken F. (2015) The shadow of the future promotes cooperation in a repeated prisoner's dilemma for children. Scientific Reports 5: 14559.
Dal Bo P. (2005) Cooperation under the shadow of the future: experimental evidence from infinitely repeated games. The American Economic Review 95: 15911604.
Bowles S. (1998) Endogenous preferences: the cultural consequences of markets and other economic institutions. Journal of Economic Literature 36: 75111.
Bowles S. (2008) Policies designed for self-interested citizens may undermine ‘the moral sentiments’: evidence from economic experiments. Science 320: 16051609.
Callen M. (2015) Catastrophes and time preference: evidence from the Indian Ocean earthquake. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 118: 199214.
Cameron L.A. & Shah M. (2015) Risk-taking behavior in the wake of natural disasters. Journal of Human Resources 50: 484515.
Castillo M., Ferraro P.J., Jordan J.L. & Petrie R. (2011) The today and tomorrow of kids: time preferences and educational outcomes of children. Journal of Public Economics 95: 13771385.
Chabris C., Laibson D., Morris C., Schuldt J. & Taubinsky D. (2008) Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 37: 237269.
Christensen A.E. (2011) Marine gold and atoll livelihoods: the rise and fall of the bêche-de-mer trade on Ontong Java, Solomon Islands. Natural Resources Forum 35: 920.
Christensen A.E. & Gough K.V. (2012) Island mobilities: spatial and social mobility on Ontong Java, Solomon Islands. Geografisk Tidsskrift – Danish Journal of Geography 112: 5262.
Christensen A.E. & Mertz O. (2010) Researching Pacific island livelihoods: mobility, natural resource management and nissology. Asia Pacific Viewpoint 51: 278287.
Church J.A., Clark P.U., Cazenave A., Gregory J.M., Jevrejeva S., Levermann A., Merrifield M.A., Milne G.A., Nerem R.S., Nunn P.D., Payne A.J., Pfeffer W.T., Stammer D. & Unnikrishnan A.S. (2013) Sea level change. Cambridge University Press [www document]. URL http://drs.nio.org/drs/handle/2264/4605
Connell P.J. (2010) Pacific islands in the global economy: paradoxes of migration and culture. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography 31: 115129.
Connell P.J. (2008) Niue: embracing a culture of migration. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 34: 10211040.
Farbotko C. & Lazrus H. (2012) The first climate refugees? Contesting global narratives of climate change in Tuvalu. Global Environmental Change 22: 382390.
Fehr E. & Hoff K. (2011) Introduction: tastes, castes and culture: the influence of society on preferences. The Economic Journal 121: F396F412.
Fehr E. & Leibbrandt A. (2011) A field study on cooperativeness and impatience in the tragedy of the commons. Journal of Public Economics 95: 11441155.
Fudenberg D. & Levine D.K. (2006) A dual-self model of impulse control. American Economic Review 96: 14491476.
Hardin G. (1968) The tragedy of the commons. Science 162: 12431248.
Henry A.D. & Dietz T. (2012) Understanding environmental cognition. Organization & Environment 25: 238258.
Henry A.D. & Vollan B. (2012) Risk, networks, and ecological explanations for the emergence of cooperation in commons governance. Rationality, Markets and Morals [www document]. URL http://econpapers.repec.org/article/rmmjournl/v_3a3_3ay_3a2012_3ai_3a59.htm
Hoch S.J. & Loewenstein G.F. (1991) Time-inconsistent preferences and consumer self-control. Journal of Consumer Research 17: 492507.
Hofstede G. (2001) Culture's Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions, and Organizations across Nations. Second Edition. Thousand Oaks, CA, USA; London, UK; New Delhi, India: Sage Publications, Inc.
Jaeger D.A., Dohmen T., Falk A., Huffman D., Sunde U. & Bonin H. (2010) Direct evidence on risk attitudes and migration. The Review of Economics and Statistics 92: 684689.
Khwaja A., Sloan F. & Salm M. (2006) Evidence on preferences and subjective beliefs of risk takers: the case of smokers. International Journal of Industrial Organization 24: 667682.
King R. (2009) Geography, islands and migration in an era of global mobility. Island Studies Journal 4: 5384.
Lata S. & Nunn P. (2011) Misperceptions of climate-change risk as barriers to climate-change adaptation: a case study from the Rewa Delta, Fiji. Climatic Change 110: 169186.
Malm T., Hornborg A. & Crumley C. (2007) No island is an ‘island’: some perspectives on human ecology and development in Oceania. The World System and the Earth System: Global Socioenvironmental Change and Sustainability since the Neolithic 395: 268279.
Mann T. & Westphal H. (2014) Assessing long-term changes in the beach width of reef islands based on temporally fragmented remote sensing data. Remote Sensing 6: 69616987.
Mattauch L. & Hepburn C. (2016). Climate policy when preferences are endogenous – and sometimes they are. Midwest Studies in Philosophy 40: 7695.
McClure S.M., Laibson D.I., Loewenstein G. & Cohen J.D. (2004) Separate neural systems value immediate and delayed monetary rewards. Science 306: 503507.
Meier S. & Sprenger C. (2010) Present-biased preferences and credit card borrowing. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2: 193210.
Meier S. & Sprenger C.D. (2013) Discounting financial literacy: time preferences and participation in financial education programs. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 95: 159174.
Mischel W., Shoda Y. & Rodriguez M.L. (1989) Delay of gratification in children. Science 244: 933938.
Nicholls R.J., Marinova N., Lowe J.A., Brown S., Vellinga P., Gusmão D., Hinkel J. & Tol R.S.J. (2011) Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 369: 161181.
Nordhaus W. (2014) Estimates of the social cost of carbon: concepts and results from the dice-2013r model and alternative approaches. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 1: 273312.
Nunn P.D. (2013) The end of the Pacific? Effects of sea level rise on Pacific Island livelihoods. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography 34: 143171.
O'Donoghue T. & Rabin M. (1999) Doing it now or later. The American Economic Review 89: 103124.
Pachauri R.K., Allen M.R., Barros V.R. & Broome J. (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC [www document]. URL http://epic.awi.de/37530/
Peter J. (2000) Chuukese travellers and the idea of horizon. Asia Pacific Viewpoint 41: 253267.
Peterson J.A. (2009) The Austronesian moment. Philippine Quarterly of Culture and Society 37: 136158.
Rai V. & Henry A.D. (2016) Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices. Nature Climate Change 6: 556562.
Roy P. & Connell J. (1991) Climatic change and the future of atoll states. Journal of Coastal Research 7: 10571075.
Rudiak-Gould P. (2013) Cross-cultural insights into climate change skepticism. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94: 17071713.
Schelling T.C. (2006) Micromotives and Macrobehavior. New York, NY, USA: W. W. Norton & Company.
Schweizer N. & Szech N. (2016) Optimal revelation of life-changing information. Rochester, NY, USA: Social Science Research Network [www document]. URL https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2805842
Staats H.J., Wit A.P. & Midden C.Y.H. (1996) Communicating the greenhouse effect to the public: evaluation of a mass media campaign from a social dilemma perspective. Journal of Environmental Management 46: 189203.
Stern N.H. (2007) The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Stern P.C., Dietz T. & Guagnano G.A. (1995) The new environmental paradigm in social psychological perspective. Environment & Behavior 27: 723745.
Sutter M., Kocher M.G., Glätzle-Rützler D. & Trautmann S.T. (2013) Impatience and uncertainty: experimental decisions predict adolescents’ field behavior. The American Economic Review 103: 510531.
Thaler R.H. & Shefrin H.M. (1981) An economic theory of self-control. Journal of Political Economy 89: 392406.
Voors M.J., Nillesen E.E.M., Verwimp P., Bulte E.H., Lensink R. & Van Soest D.P. (2012) Violent conflict and behavior: a field experiment in Burundi. The American Economic Review 102: 941964.
Wang M., Rieger M.O. & Hens T. (2016) How time preferences differ: evidence from 53 countries. Journal of Economic Psychology 52: 115135.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Environmental Conservation
  • ISSN: 0376-8929
  • EISSN: 1469-4387
  • URL: /core/journals/environmental-conservation
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Keywords:

Type Description Title
WORD
Supplementary Materials

Henry supplementary material
Henry supplementary material 1

 Word (125 KB)
125 KB

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 2
Total number of PDF views: 44 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 208 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between 10th July 2017 - 12th December 2017. This data will be updated every 24 hours.