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An analysis of influenza outbreaks in institutions and enclosed societies

  • T. J. R. FINNIE (a1), V. R. COPLEY (a1), I. M. HALL (a1) and S. LEACH (a1)

Summary

This paper considers the reported attack ratio arising from outbreaks of influenza in enclosed societies. These societies are isolated from the wider community and have greater opportunities for contact between members which would aid the spread of disease. While the particular kind of society (prison, care home, school, barracks, etc.) was not a significant factor in an adjusted model of attack ratio, a person's occupation within the society was. In particular, children and military personnel suffer a greater attack ratio than other occupational types (staff, prisoners, etc.). There was no temporal trend in final attack ratio nor, with the exception of 1918, do pandemic years show abnormal attack ratios. We also observed that as community size increases, the attack ratio undergoes steep nonlinear decline. This statistical analysis draws attention to how the organization of such societies, their size and the occupations of individuals within them affect the final attack ratio.

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Copyright

The online version of this article is published within an Open Access environment subject to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence . The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use.

Corresponding author

* Author for correspondence: T. J. R. Finnie, Microbial Risk Assessment and Behavioural Science, Emergency Response Department, Health Protection Agency, Porton Down, Salisbury, Wiltshire, SP4 0JG, UK. (Email: Thomas.Finnie@phe.gov.uk)

References

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