Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home

Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures

  • E. VYNNYCKY (a1) and W. J. EDMUNDS (a1)

Summary

Many countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0), the proportion of infected individuals who experience clinical symptoms and the impact of school/nursery closures. The R0 for Asian influenza was about 1·8 and 60–65% of infected individuals were estimated to have experienced clinical symptoms. During a future pandemic, closure of schools/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (<10%) if R0 is high (e.g. 2·5 or 3·5), and modest reductions, e.g. 22% might be possible if it is low (1·8) and schools are closed early, depending on assumptions about contact patterns. Further data on contact patterns and their dependence on school closures are needed.

  • View HTML
    • Send article to Kindle

      To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

      Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

      Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

      Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures
      Available formats
      ×

      Send article to Dropbox

      To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

      Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures
      Available formats
      ×

      Send article to Google Drive

      To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

      Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures
      Available formats
      ×

Copyright

Corresponding author

*Author for correspondence: Dr E. Vynnycky, Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, 61 Colindale Avenue, Colindale, London NW9 5HT, UK. (Email: emilia.vynnycky@hpa.org.uk)

References

Hide All
1. World Health Organization Writing Group. Nonpharmaceutical interventions for pandemic influenza, national and community measures. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2006; 12: 8894.
2. World Health Organization. WHO global influenza preparedness plan. The role of WHO and recommendations for national measures before and during pandemics. World Health Organization, 2005; WHO/CDS/CSR/GIP/2005.5.
3. Fine, PE, Clarkson, JA. Measles in England and Wales – I: An analysis of factors underlying seasonal patterns. International Journal of Epidemiology 1982; 11: 514.
4. Heymann, A, et al. Influence of school closure on the incidence of viral respiratory diseases among children and on health care utilization. Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal 2004; 23: 675677.
5. Ferguson, NM, et al. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature 2006; 442: 448452.
6. Germann, TC, et al. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 2006; 103: 59355940.
7. Fine, PE. The interval between successive cases of an infectious disease. American Journal of Epidemiology 2003; 158: 10391047.
8. Hope-Simpson, RE. The period of communicability of certain epidemic diseases. Lancet 1948 (13 Nov.): 755760.
9. Glezen, WP, Couch, RB, Evans, AS (eds). Influenza viruses, ch. 15. In: Viral Infections of Humans: Epidemiology and Control, 3rd edn. New York: Plenum Publishing, 1989, pp. 419449.
10. Hall, CB, et al. Viral shedding patterns of children with influenza B infection. Journal of Infectious Diseases 1979; 140: 610613.
11. Jordan, WS, et al. A study of illness in a group of Cleveland families. XVII. The occurrence of Asian influenza. American Journal of Hygiene 1958; 68: 190212.
12. Ferguson, NM, et al. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 2005; 437: 209214.
13. Mulder, J, Masurel, N. Pre-epidemic antibody against 1957 strain of Asiatic influenza in serum of older people living in the Netherlands. Lancet 1958; 1: 810814.
14. Diekmann, O, Heesterbeek, JA, Metz, JA. On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R 0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. Journal of Mathematical Biology 1990; 28: 465482.
15. Ministry of Health. Reports on Public Health and Medical Subjects. The influenza pandemic in England and Wales 1957–58. London. Her Majesty's Stationery Office, 1960; Report No. 100.
16. Woodall, J, Rowson, KEK, McDonald, J. Age and Asian influenza, 1957. British Medical Journal 1958; 5108: 13161318.
17. Clarke, SK, et al. Serological studies with Asian strain of influenza A. Lancet 1958; 1: 814818.
18. General Register Office. The Registrar General's Statistical Review of England and Wales. London: Her Majesty's Stationery Office, 2006.
19. Registrar General. Registrar General's quarterly returns for England and Wales, quarter ended 30/9/1957; 1957.
20. Longini, IM Jr., et al. Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. American Journal of Epidemiology 2004; 159: 623633.
21. Whitley, RJ, et al. Oral oseltamivir treatment of influenza in children. Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal 2001; 20: 127133.
22. Frank, AL, et al. Patterns of shedding of myxoviruses and paramyxoviruses in children. Journal of Infectious Diseases 1981; 144: 433440.
23. Viboud, C, et al. Transmissibility and mortality impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza, with emphasis on the unusually deadly 1951 epidemic. Vaccine 2006; 24: 67016707.
24. Gani, R, et al. Potential impact of antiviral drug use during influenza pandemic. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2005; 11: 13551362.
25. Chowell, G, et al. Estimation of the reproductive number of the Spanish flu epidemic in Geneva, Switzerland. Vaccine 2006; 24: 67476750.
26. Mills, CE, Robins, JM, Lipsitch, M. Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature 2004; 432: 904906.
27. Davis, LE, et al. Hong Kong influenza: the epidemiologic features of a high school family study analyzed and compared with a similar study during the 1957 Asian influenza epidemic. American Journal of Epidemiology 1970; 92: 240247.
Type Description Title
WORD
Supplementary materials

Vynnycky Supplementary Material
Appendices.doc

 Word (314 KB)
314 KB

Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures

  • E. VYNNYCKY (a1) and W. J. EDMUNDS (a1)

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed.