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Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) burden in Rhode Island: modelling treatment scale-up and elimination

  • A. I. SOIPE (a1), H. RAZAVI (a2), D. RAZAVI-SHEARER (a2), O. GALÁRRAGA (a3), L. E. TAYLOR (a4) and B. D. L. MARSHALL (a1)...

We utilized a disease progression model to predict the number of viraemic infections, cirrhotic cases, and liver-related deaths in the state of Rhode Island (RI) under four treatment scenarios: (1) current HCV treatment paradigm (about 215 patients treated annually, Medicaid reimbursement criteria fibrosis stage ⩾F3); (2) immediate scale-up of treatment (to 430 annually) and less restrictive Medicaid reimbursement criteria (fibrosis stage ⩾F2); (3) immediate treatment scale-up and no fibrosis stage-specific Medicaid reimbursement criteria (⩾F0); (4) an ‘elimination’ scenario (i.e. a continued treatment scale-up needed to achieve >90% reduction in viraemic cases by 2030). Under current treatment models, the number of cirrhotic cases and liver-related deaths will plateau and peak by 2030, respectively. Treatment scale-up with ⩾F2 and ⩾F0 fibrosis stage treatment criteria could reduce the number of cirrhotic cases by 21·7% and 10·0%, and the number of liver-related deaths by 19·3% and 7·4%, respectively by 2030. To achieve a >90% reduction in viraemic cases by 2030, over 2000 persons will need to be treated annually by 2020. This strategy could reduce cirrhosis cases and liver-related deaths by 78·9% and 72·4%, respectively by 2030. Increased HCV treatment uptake is needed to substantially reduce the burden of HCV by 2030 in Rhode Island.

Corresponding author
*Author for correspondence: B. D. L. Marshall, PhD, Manning Assistant Professor of Epidemiology, Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, 121 South Main Street, Box G-S-121-2, Providence, RI, 02912, USA. (Email:
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Epidemiology & Infection
  • ISSN: 0950-2688
  • EISSN: 1469-4409
  • URL: /core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection
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