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    This article has been cited by the following publications. This list is generated based on data provided by CrossRef.

    Brouwer, Matthijs C. and Van De Beek, Diederik 2014. Manson's Tropical Infectious Diseases.

    Stanton, Michelle C. Agier, and Lydiane Taylor, Benjamin M. and Diggle, Peter J. 2014. Towards realtime spatiotemporal prediction of district level meningitis incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), Vol. 177, Issue. 3, p. 661.

    Xie, Ouli Pollard, Andrew J. Mueller, Judith E. and Norheim, Gunnstein 2013. Emergence of serogroup X meningococcal disease in Africa: Need for a vaccine. Vaccine, Vol. 31, Issue. 27, p. 2852.

    2012. Atlas of Human Infectious Diseases.

    Cuevas, Luis E. Jeanne, Isabelle Molesworth, Anna Bell, Michael Savory, Emily C. Connor, Stephen J. and Thomson, Madeleine C. 2007. Risk mapping and early warning systems for the control of meningitis in Africa. Vaccine, Vol. 25, p. A12.


Evaluation of the meningitis epidemics risk model in Africa

  • E. C. SAVORY (a1), L. E. CUEVAS (a1), M. A. YASSIN (a1), C. A. HART (a2), A. M. MOLESWORTH (a1) and M. C. THOMSON (a3)
  • DOI:
  • Published online: 01 February 2006

Meningitis epidemics have a strong environmental component in Africa with the most severe epidemics occurring in the Sahelian region known as the Meningitis Belt. The objective of this study is to evaluate an ecological model based on absolute humidity and land cover type to predict the location of these epidemics. The risk model is evaluated prospectively based on epidemics occurring in Africa from January 2000 to April 2004. Seventy-one epidemics occurred during this time period affecting 22% of continental African districts. The model predicted their location with a sensitivity of 88%. The evaluation also suggests that epidemics may be extending south of the Sahel, which is consistent with environmental changes in the region. This model could be used to select priority areas for the introduction of the newly developed conjugate meningococcal vaccines. Further studies are needed to enhance our understanding of the complex relationship between meningitis epidemics and the environment.

Corresponding author
Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool, L35QA, UK. (Email:
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Epidemiology & Infection
  • ISSN: 0950-2688
  • EISSN: 1469-4409
  • URL: /core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection
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