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Incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in women in England: two methods of estimation

  • M. J. PRICE (a1), A. E. ADES (a2), D. DE ANGELIS (a3) (a4), N. J. WELTON (a2), J. MACLEOD (a2), K. TURNER (a2) and P. J. HORNER (a2) (a5)...
Summary

Information on the incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) is essential for models of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening programmes. We developed two independent estimates of CT incidence in women in England: one based on an incidence study, with estimates ‘recalibrated’ to the general population using data on setting-specific relative risks, and allowing for clearance and re-infection during follow-up; the second based on UK prevalence data, and information on the duration of CT infection. The consistency of independent sources of data on incidence, prevalence and duration, validates estimates of these parameters. Pooled estimates of the annual incidence rate in women aged 16–24 and 16–44 years for 2001–2005 using all these data were 0·05 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0·035–0·071] and 0·021 (95% CrI 0·015–0·028), respectively. Although, the estimates apply to England, similar methods could be used in other countries. The methods could be extended to dynamic models to synthesize, and assess the consistency of data on contact and transmission rates.

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Copyright
COPYRIGHT: © Cambridge University Press 2013
The online version of this article is published within an Open Access environment subject to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence . The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use.
Corresponding author
* Author for correspondence: Dr M. J. Price, School of Health and Population Sciences, Public Health Building, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK. (Email: m.price.2@bham.ac.uk)
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