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Modelling the impact of extended vaccination strategies on the epidemiology of pertussis

  • M. H. ROZENBAUM (a1), R. De VRIES (a1), H. H. LE (a1) and M. J. POSTMA (a1)
  • DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268811002354
  • Published online: 24 November 2011
Abstract
SUMMARY

The aim of this study was to investigate the optimal pertussis booster vaccination strategy for The Netherlands. A realistic age-structured deterministic model was designed. Assuming a steady-state situation and correcting for underreporting, the model was calibrated using notification data from the period 1996–2000. Several sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the impact of different assumptions for parameters surrounded by uncertainty (e.g. duration of protection after natural infection, underreporting factors, and transmission probabilities). The optimal age of an additional booster dose is in the range of 10–15 years, and implementation of this booster dose will reduce both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, although the incidence of symptomatic infections in older age groups will increase. The impact of the different assumptions used in the model was in general limited. We conclude that over a wide range of assumptions, an additional booster dose can reduce the incidence of pertussis in the population.

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Copyright
The online version of this article is published within an Open Access environment subject to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/>. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use.
Corresponding author
*Author for correspondence: Dr M. H. Rozenbaum, University of Groningen, Antonius Deusinglaan 1, 9713 AV Groningen, The Netherlands. (Email: m.h.rozenbaum@rug.nl)
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