Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home

On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil

  • E. MASSAD (a1) (a2), M. NASCIMENTO BURATTINI (a1) (a3), K. KHAN (a4), C. J. STRUCHINER (a5), F. A. B. COUTINHO (a1) and A. WILDER-SMITH (a6) (a7) (a8)...

Summary

The timing and origin of Zika virus (ZIKV) introduction in Brazil has been the subject of controversy. Initially, it was assumed that the virus was introduced during the FIFA World Cup in June–July 2014. Then, it was speculated that ZIKV may have been introduced by athletes from French Polynesia (FP) who competed in a canoe race in Rio de Janeiro in August 2014. We attempted to apply mathematical models to determine the most likely time window of ZIKV introduction in Brazil. Given that the timing and origin of ZIKV introduction in Brazil may be a politically sensitive issue, its determination (or the provision of a plausible hypothesis) may help to prevent undeserved blame. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the force of infection and the corresponding individual probability of being infected with ZIKV in FP. Taking into account the air travel volume from FP to Brazil between October 2013 and March 2014, we estimated the expected number of infected travellers arriving at Brazilian airports during that period. During the period between December 2013 and February 2014, 51 individuals travelled from FP airports to 11 Brazilian cities. Basing on the calculated force of ZIKV infection (the per capita rate of new infections per time unit) and risk of infection (probability of at least one new infection), we estimated that 18 (95% CI 12–22) individuals who arrived in seven of the evaluated cities were infected. When basic ZIKV reproduction numbers greater than one were assumed in the seven evaluated cities, ZIKV could have been introduced in any one of the cities. Based on the force of infection in FP, basic reproduction ZIKV number in selected Brazilian cities, and estimated travel volume, we concluded that ZIKV was most likely introduced and established in Brazil by infected travellers arriving from FP in the period between October 2013 and March 2014, which was prior to the two aforementioned sporting events.

  • View HTML
    • Send article to Kindle

      To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

      Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

      Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

      On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil
      Available formats
      ×

      Send article to Dropbox

      To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

      On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil
      Available formats
      ×

      Send article to Google Drive

      To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

      On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil
      Available formats
      ×

Copyright

Corresponding author

*Author for correspondence: School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Brazil and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK (Email: edmassad@usp.br)

References

Hide All
1. Brasil, P, et al. Zika virus infection in pregnant women in Rio de Janeiro _ Preliminary Report. New England Journal of Medicine 2016. http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1602412.
2. Massad, E, et al. Estimated Zika virus importation to Europe by travellers from Brazil. Global Health Action 2016; 9: 31669. doi: 10.3402/gha.v9.31669.
3. Zanluca, C, et al. First report of autochthonous transmission of Zika virus in Brazil. Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz 2015; 110(4): 569–72.
4. Enserink, M. Infectious Diseases. An Obscure Mosquito-Borne Disease Goes Global. United States: Science, 2015, pp. 1012–3.
5. Lednicky, J, et al. Zika virus outbreak in Haiti in 2014: molecular and clinical data. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2016; 10(4): e0004687. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004687.
6. Musso, D, Nilles, EJ, Cao-Lormeau, VM. Rapid spread of emerging Zika virus in the Pacific area. Clinical Microbiology and Infection 2014; 20: 595–6.
7. Tabatabaei, SM, Metanat, M. Mass gathering and infectious diseases: epidemiology and surveillance. International Journal of Infection 2015; 2(2): e22833.
8. Massad, E, et al. Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil. Lancet Infectious Diseases 2014; 14(7): 552–3. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70807-2. No abstract available.
9. Massad, E, et al. Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil. Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz 2014; 109(3): 394–7.
10. Massad, E, Coutinho, FA, Wilder-Smith, A. The olympically mismeasured risk of Zika virus in Rio de Janeiro – Authors’ reply. Lancet 2016; 13;388(10045): 658–9. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31228-4.
11. Massad, E, Coutinho, FA, Wilder-Smith, A. Is Zika a substantial risk for visitors to the Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games? Lancet 2016; 388(10039): 25. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30842-X.
12. Faria, NR et al. Zika virus in the Americas: early epidemiological and genetic findings. Science 2016; 352(6283), 345349.
13.WHO Zika Fact Sheet. Available at: http://www.wpro.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs_05182015_zika/en/ Accessed 20 February 2017.
14. Musso, D, Cao-Lormeau, VM, Gubler, DJ. Zika virus: following the path of dengue and chikungunya? Lancet 2015; 386(9990): 243244. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61273-9.
15. Amaku, M, et al. Estimating the size of the HCV infection prevalence: a modeling approach using the incidence of cases reported to an official notification system. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 2016; 78(5): 970–90. doi: 10.1007/s11538-016-0170-4. Epub 2016 May 9.
16. Ximenes, R, et al. The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer Olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. BMC Infectious Diseases 2016; 16: 186. doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1517-z.
17. Burattini, MN, et al. Potential exposure to Zika virus for foreign tourists during the 2016 Carnival and Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Epidemiology and Infection 2016; 144(9): 1904–6. doi: 10.1017/S0950268816000649.
18. Massad, E, et al. Estimation of R0 from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection. Tropical Medicine and International Health 2010; 15(1): 120–6. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2009.02413.x.
19. Funk, S, et al. Comparative analysis of dengue and Zika outbreaks reveals differences by setting and virus. bioRxiv preprint first posted online Mar. 11, 2016. doi: 10.1101/043265.
20. WHO. The history of Zika virus. Available at: http://www.who.int/emergencies/zika-virus/timeline/en/ Accessed in 25 October 2016.
21. Massad, E, et al. Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission. Malaria Journal 2009; 8: 296. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-8-296.
22. Massad, E, et al. Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries. Malaria Journal 2011; 10: 130. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-10-130.
23. Zinszer, K, et al. Reconstruction of Zika virus introduction in Brazil. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2016; 2017 Jan [13 September 2016]. DOI: 10.3201/eid2301.161274.
24. Fergusson, N, et al. Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America. Science 2016; 353(6297): 353–4. doi: 10.1126/science.aag0219.
25. Lopez, LF, et al. Modeling importations and exportations of infectious diseases via travelers. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 2016; 78(2): 185209. doi: 10.1007/s11538-015-0135-z.
26. Massad, E, Rocklov, J, Wilder-Smith, A. Dengue infections in non-immune travellers to Thailand. Epidemiology and Infection 2013; 141(2): 412–7. doi: 10.1017/S0950268812000507.

Keywords

Related content

Powered by UNSILO

On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil

  • E. MASSAD (a1) (a2), M. NASCIMENTO BURATTINI (a1) (a3), K. KHAN (a4), C. J. STRUCHINER (a5), F. A. B. COUTINHO (a1) and A. WILDER-SMITH (a6) (a7) (a8)...

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed.