Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home

Quantitative risk assessment to compare the risk of rabies entering the UK from Turkey via quarantine, the Pet Travel Scheme and the EU Pet Movement Policy

  • V. RAMNIAL (a1), R. KOSMIDER (a1), O. AYLAN (a2), C. FREULING (a3), T. MÜLLER (a3) and A. R. FOOKS (a4)...

Summary

Rabies was eradicated from the UK in 1922 through strict controls of dog movement and investigation of every incident of disease. Amendments were made to the UK quarantine laws and the Pet Travel Scheme (PETS) was subsequently introduced in 2000 for animals entering the UK from qualifying listed countries. European Regulation 998/2003 on the non-commercial movement of pet animals initiated the European Union Pet Movement Policy (EUPMP) in July 2004. The introduction of EUPMP harmonized the movement of pet animals within the EU (EUPMPlisted) but raised the possibility of domestic animals entering the UK from a non-EU state where rabies is endemic (EUPMPunlisted). A quantitative risk assessment was developed to estimate the risk of rabies entering the UK from Turkey via companion animals that are incubating the disease and enter through PETS or EUPMP compared to quarantine. Specifically, the risk was assessed by estimating the annual probability of rabies entering the UK and the number of years between rabies entries for each scheme. The model identified that the probability of rabies entering the UK via the three schemes is highly dependent on compliance. If 100% compliance is assumed, PETS and EUPMPunlisted (at the current level of importation) present a lower risk than quarantine, i.e. the number of years between rabies entry is more than 170 721 years for PETS and 60 163 years for EUPMPunlisted compared to 41 851 years for quarantine (with 95% certainty). If less than 100% compliance is assumed, PETS and EUPMPunlisted (at the current level of importation) present a higher risk. In addition, EUPMPlisted and EUPMPunlisted (at an increased level of importation) present a higher risk than quarantine or PETS at 100% compliance and at an uncertain level of compliance.

    • Send article to Kindle

      To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

      Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

      Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

      Quantitative risk assessment to compare the risk of rabies entering the UK from Turkey via quarantine, the Pet Travel Scheme and the EU Pet Movement Policy
      Available formats
      ×

      Send article to Dropbox

      To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

      Quantitative risk assessment to compare the risk of rabies entering the UK from Turkey via quarantine, the Pet Travel Scheme and the EU Pet Movement Policy
      Available formats
      ×

      Send article to Google Drive

      To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

      Quantitative risk assessment to compare the risk of rabies entering the UK from Turkey via quarantine, the Pet Travel Scheme and the EU Pet Movement Policy
      Available formats
      ×

Copyright

Corresponding author

*Author for correspondence: Professor A. R. Fooks, Head of Rabies and Wildlife Zoonoses Group, Veterinary Laboratories Agency – Weybridge, Addlestone, Surrey, UK. (Email: t.fooks@vla.defra.gsi.gov.uk)

References

Hide All
1.Advisory Group on Quarantine. Quarantine and Rabies a reappraisal, Report to the Rt Hon Nick Brown MP, Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. London: MAFF publications, 1998.
2.Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). PETS. (http://www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/quarantine/pets/index.htm). Accessed 1 December 2008.
3.Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Fact sheet 1: Introduction to the European Regulation on the movement of pet animals. (http://www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/quarantine/factsheet/factsheet1-081016.htm.pdf). Accessed 1 December 2008.
4.Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Fact sheet 3: European Union countries – dogs and cats. (http://www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/quarantine/factsheet/factsheet3-081016.htm.pdf). Accessed 1 December 2008.
5.Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Fact sheet 4: Non-European Union countries – dogs and cats. (http://www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/quarantine/factsheet/factsheet4-081016.htm.pdf). Accessed 1 December 2008.
6.Europa. Regulation (EC) No. 998/2003 of the European parliament and of the council. (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/smartapi/cgi/sga_doc?smartapi!celexapi!prod!CELEXnumdoc&lg=EN&numdoc=32003R0998&model=guichett). Accessed 22 February 2009.
7.Johnson, N, et al. Rabies emergence among foxes in Turkey. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 2003; 36: 262270.
8.Rabies Bulletin Europe. Distribution of Rabies. (http://www.rbe.fli.bund.de/Queries/Distribution.aspx). Accessed 16 February 2008.
9.Jones, RD, et al. Quantitative risk assessment of rabies entering Great Britain from North America via cats and dogs. Risk Analysis 2005; 25: 533542.
10.Fekadu, M. Canine rabies. In: Baer, GM, ed. The Natural History of Rabies, 2nd edn.Florida: CRC Press Inc., 1991, pp. 367378.
11.Fooks, AR, et al. Rabies virus in a dog imported to the UK from Sri Lanka. Veterinary Record 2008; 162: 598.
12.FAS. Turkey's transition: a window of opportunity. (http://www.fas.usda.gov/info/agexporter/2000/October/turkeys.htm). Accessed 1 December 2008.
13.Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Advice to veterinary surgeons in GB: dogs and cats. (http://www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/quarantine/factsheet/euvetfactsheet2.pdf). Accessed 1 December 2008.
14.Sihvonen, L, et al. Rabies antibodies in vaccinated dogs. Acta Veterinaria Scandinavica 1995; 36: 8791.
15.Cliquet, F, Aubert, M, Sagne, L. Development of a fluorescent antibody virus neutralisation test (FAVN test) for the quantitation of rabies-neutralising antibody. Journal of Immunological Methods 1998; 212: 7987.
16.Johnson, N, et al. Wildlife rabies in Western Turkey: the spread of rabies through the western provinces of Turkey. Epidemiology and Infection 2006; 134: 369375.
17.Today's Zaman. Turkey maps its flora and fauna. (http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=130371). Accessed 1 December 2008.
18.EFSA. Assessment of the risk of rabies introduction into the UK, Ireland, Sweden, Malta, as a consequence of abandoning the serological test measuring protective antibodies to rabies. EFSA Journal 2006; 436: 154.
19.Have, P, et al. Risk of rabies introduction by non-commercial movement of pets. Developments in Biologicals (Basel) 2008; 131: 177185.
20.Weber, A, et al. Case report: Rabies in a vaccinated dog imported from Azerbaijan. Praktischer Tierarzt 2003; 84: 912914.
21.Le Roux, I, Van Gucht, S. Two cases of imported canine rabies in the Brussels area within six months time. WHO Rabies Bulletin Europe 2008; 32: 56.
22.Anon. French multidisciplinary investigation team. Identification of a rabid dog in France illegally introduced from Morocco. Eurosurveillance 2008; 13(11): pii=8066 (http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=8066).

Keywords

Quantitative risk assessment to compare the risk of rabies entering the UK from Turkey via quarantine, the Pet Travel Scheme and the EU Pet Movement Policy

  • V. RAMNIAL (a1), R. KOSMIDER (a1), O. AYLAN (a2), C. FREULING (a3), T. MÜLLER (a3) and A. R. FOOKS (a4)...

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed