Hostname: page-component-7dd5485656-bvgqh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-10-30T18:42:48.584Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A random walk in the literature on criminality: A partial and critical view on some statistical analyses and modelling approaches

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 April 2010

M. B. GORDON
M. B. GORDON*
Affiliation:
Laboratoire TIMC-IMAG (UMR 5525), University of Grenoble I Domaine de La Merci - Jean Roget, 38706 La Tronche, France email: mirta.gordon@imag.fr
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We are interested in the possible contributions of mathematical modelling of crime. We refer to numerous and quite recent papers that analyse and discuss empirical data in an attempt to discover stylised trends worthy of being understood through simple models. We summarise part of this literature and try to understand the reasons of important discrepancies in their conclusions. Then we present some recent modelling attempts that may help to understand the large variance in the statistical-based conclusions.

Information

Type
Papers
Information
European Journal of Applied Mathematics , Volume 21 , Issue 4-5: Criminality , October 2010 , pp. 283 - 306
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

[1]Auerhahn, K. (2008) Dynamic systems simulation analysis: A planning tool for the new century. J. Criminal Justice 36, 293–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[2]Ball, P. (March 3, 2004) Criminals follow laws of statistics. BioEd Online.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[3]Ballester, C., Calvó-Armengol, A. & Zenou, Y. (2006) Who's who in networks. wanted: The key player. Econometrica 75 (4), 1403–1418.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[4]Barthelemy, M., Nadal, J.-P. & Berestycki, H. (September 8 2009) Disentangling collective trends from local dynamics. Preprint. Accessed 2 March 2010. URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/0909.1490v1.Google Scholar
[5]Becker, G. (1968) Crime and punishment: An economic approach. J. Pol. Econ. 76, 169–217.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[6]Berkhin, P. (2006) Survey of Clustering Data Mining Techniques, In: Kogan, Jacob, Nicholas, Charles and Teboulle, Marc (editors), Grouping Multidimensional Data. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp. 25–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[7]Bernard, T. J. & Ritti, R. R. (1991) Philadelphia birth cohort and selective incapacitation. J. Research Crime Delinquency 28 (1), 33–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[8]Bircan, T., Hardyns, W. & Hooghe, M. (2008) A spatial analysis of Belgian national crime records, 2001–2005. Paper presented at the conference ‘New Techniques and Technologies for Statistics’ (NTTS), Statistical Office of the European Communities (Eurostat), European Commission, Brussels, Belgium.Google Scholar
[9]Blokland, A. A. J. & Nieuwbeerta, P. (2007) Selectively incapacitating frequent offenders: Costs and benefits of various penal scenarios. J. Quant. Criminol. 23, 327–353.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[10]Blumstein, A. (2002) Crime modeling. Oper. Res. 50 (1), 16–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[11]Bourguignon, F., Nuñez, J. & Sanchez, F. (2003) A structural model of crime and inequality in Colombia. J. Eur. Econ. Assoc. 1 (2–3), 440–449.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[12]Brame, R. & Piquero, A. R. (2003) Selective attrition and the age–crime relationship. J. Quant. Criminol. 19 (2), 107–127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[13]Brantingham, P. L., Glässer, U., Kinney, B., Singh, K. & Vajihollahi, M. (2005) A computational model for simulating spatial aspects of crime in urban environments. In Jamshidi, M., ed.: Proccedings of the 2005 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics. (October 2005) 3667–3674.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[14]Burdett, K., Lagos, R. & Wright, R. (2003) Crime, inequality & unemployment. Am. Econ. Rev. 93 (5), 1764–1777.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[15]Bushway, S. D., Thornberry, T. P. & Krohn, M. D. (2003) Desistance as a developmental process: A comparison of static and dynamic approaches. J. Quant. Criminol. 19 (2), 129–153.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[16]Campbell, M. & Ormerod, P. (1998) Social Interactions and the Dynamics of Crime. Tech. Rep., Volterra Consulting. Accessed 30 March 2010. URL: http://www.paulormerod.com/papers.html.Google Scholar
[17]Chapman, J. I. (1976) An economic model of crime and police: Some empirical results. J. Res. Crime Delinquency, 48–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[18]Cohen, L. E. & Felson M., M. (1979) Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. Am. Sociol. Rev. 44, 588–608.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[19]Cook, W., Ormerod, P. & Cooper, E. (2004) Scaling behaviour in the number of criminal acts committed by individuals. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, P07003. Accessed 30 March 2010. URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/1742-5468/2004/07/P07003/.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[20]Crane, J. (1991) The epidemic theory of ghettos and neighborhood effects on dropping out and teenage childbearing. Am. J. Sociol. 96 (5), 1226–1259.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[21]Crane, J., Boccara, N. & Higdon, K. (2000) The dynamics of street gang growth and policy response. J. Policy Model. 22 (1), 1–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[22]Demougin, D. & Schwager, R. (2003) Law enforcement and criminality: Europe vs. USA. Int. Rev. Law Econ. 23 (2), 217–225.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[23]Deutsch, J., Spiegel, U. & Templeman, J. (1992) Crime and income inequality: An economic approach. AEJ 20, 46–54.Google Scholar
[24]Donohue, J. J. III, & Levitt, S. D. (2008) Measurement error, legalized abortion, and the decline in crime: A response to Foote and Goetz. Quarterly Journal of Economic 123 (1)425–440 (doi:10.1162/qjec.2008.123.1.425).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[25]Donohue, J. J. & Levitt, S. D. (2001) The impact of legalized abortion on crime. Q. J. Econ. 116 (2), 379–420.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[26]Donohue, J. J. & Levitt, S. D. (October 2001) The impact of race on policing and arrests. J. Law Econ. 44, 367–394.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[27]Donohue, J. J. & Levitt, S. D. (2003) Further evidence that legalized abortion lowered crime: A reply to Joyce. J. Hum. Resour. 39 (1), 29–49.Google Scholar
[28]Drago, F., Galbiati, R. & Vertova, P. (July 2007) The Deterrent Effect of Prison: Evidence From a Natural Experiment (IZA Discussion Paper Series). Tech. rep., IZA, Bonn Germany.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[29]Dugan, L. (2002) Identifying unit-dependency and time-specificity in longitudinal analysis : A graphical methodology. J. Quant. Criminol. 18 (3), 213–237.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[30]Ehrlich, I. (1973) Participation in illegitimate activities: A theoretical and empirical investigation. J. Pol. Econ. 81, 521–565.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[31]Ehrlich, I. (1975) The deterrent effect of capital punishment: A question of life and death. Am. Econ. Rev. 65, 397–417.Google Scholar
[32]Ehrlich, I. (1975) On the relation between education and crime. In: Juster, F. T. (editor), Education, Income, and Human Behavior, Mcgraw-Hill, New York, pp. 313–338.Google Scholar
[33]Eide, E. (1999) Economics of criminal behavior. Encyclopedia of Law and Economics, Volume V. The Economics of Crime and Litigation, VIII. Criminal law, economics of crime & law enforcement, Ch. 8100, 345–389. Bouckaert, Boudewijin and De Geest, Gerrit (eds.), Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 2000. Accessed 30 March 2010. URL: http://encyclo.findlaw.com/tablebib.html#VIII.%20CRIMINAL%20LAW.Google Scholar
[34]Entorf, H. & Spengler, H. (2000) Socioeconomic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the german states. Int. Rev. Law Econ. 20, 75–106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[35]Epstein, J. M. (2002) Modeling civil violence: An agent-based computational approach. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS) 99 (suppl. 3)7243–7250.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
[36]Fajnzylber, P., Lederman, D. & Loayza, N. (2002) What causes violent crime? Eur. Econ. Rev. 46, 1323–1357.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[37]Farrington, D. P. (1994) Cambridge study in delinquent development [Great Britain], 1961–1981. Accessed 30 March 2010. URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR08488.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[38]Farrington, D. P. & Welsh, B. C. (2005) Randomized experiments in criminology: What have we learned in the last two decades? J. Exp. Criminol. 1, 9–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[39]Figlio, R. M., Tracy, P. E. & Wolfgang, M. E. (1990) Delinquency in a Birth Cohort II: Philadelphia, 1958–1988. Tech. Rep., Sellin Center for Studies in Criminology and Criminal Law and National Analysts, Division of Booz-Allen and Hamilton, Philadelphia, PA.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[40]Filippone, M., Camastra, F., Masulli, F. & Rovetta, S. (2008) A survey of kernel and spectral methods for clustering. Pattern Recognit. 41 (1), 176–190.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[41]Foote, C. & Goetz, C. (November 22, 2005) Testing economic hypotheses with state-level data: A comment on Donohue and Levitt (2001). Working Paper 05–15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston, MA.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[42]Freeman, R. B. (1996) Why do so many young American men commit crimes and what might we do about it? J. Econ. Perspect. 10, 25–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[43]Freeman, R. B. The economics of crime. (1999) In: Ashenfelter, O. & Card, D. (editors) Handbook of Labor Economics, vol. 3. ch. 52, Elsevier Science B.V., pp. 3529–3571.Google Scholar
[44]French, B. & Heagerty, P. J. (2008) Analysis of longitudinal data to evaluate a policy change. Stat. med. 27, 5005–5025.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
[45]Garoupa, N. (2007) Optimal law enforcement and criminal organization. J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 63, 461–474.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[46]Garupa, N. (1997) The theory of optimal law enforcement. J. Econ. Surv. 11 (3), 267–295.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[47]Glaeser, E. L., Sacerdote, B. & Scheinkman, J. A.Crime and social interactions. (1996) Q. J. Econ. 111 (2), 507–548.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[48]Gordon, M. B., Iglesias, J. R., Semeshenko, V. & Nadal, J.-P. (2009) Crime and punishment: The economic burden of impunity. Eur. Phys. J. B 68, 133–144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[49]Gordon, M. B., Nadal, J.-P., Phan, D. & Semeshenko, V. (2009) Discrete choices under social influence: Generic properties. Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences (M3AS) 19 (Suppl. 1)1441–1481. Working paper, URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00135405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[50]Granovetter, M. (1978) Threshold models of collective behavior. Am. J. Sociol. 83 (6), 1360–1380.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[51]Groff, E. (2005) The Geography of Juvenile Crime Place Trajectories. Master's thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, MD.Google Scholar
[52]Groff, E. (2006) Exploring the Geography of Routine Activity Theory: A Spatio-Temporal Test Using Street Robbery. PhD thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, MD.Google Scholar
[53]Groff, E. & Vigne, N. G. L. (2002) Forecasting the future of predictive crime mapping. Crime Prev. Stud. 13, 29–57.Google Scholar
[54]Grubesic, T. H. & Mack, E. A. (2008) Spatio-temporal interaction of urban crime. J. Quant. Criminol. 24, 285–306.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[55]Harcourt, B. E. & Ludwig, J. (2006) Broken windows: New evidence from new york city and a five-city social experiment. Univ. Chicago Law Rev. 73, 271–320.Google Scholar
[56]Hojman, D. E. (2002) Explaining crime in Buenos Aires: The roles of inequality, unemployment & structural change. Bull. Latin Am. Res. 21, 121–128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[57]Jain, A. K., Murty, M. N. & Flynn, P. J. (1999) Data clustering: A review. ACM Comput. Surv. 3, 264–323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[58]Joyce, T. (2003) Did legalized abortion lower crime? J. Hum. Resour. 38 (1), 1–37.Google Scholar
[59]Katz, L., Levitt, S. D. & Shustorovich, E. (2003) Prison conditions, capital punishment & deterrence. Am. Law Econ. Rev. 5 (2), 318–343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[60]Keizer, K., Lindenberg, S. & Steg, L. (2008) The spreading of disorder. Science 322, 1681–1685.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
[61]Kelling, G. L., William, H. & Sousa, J. (2001) Do Police Matter? An Analysis of the Impact of New York City's Police Reforms. Civic Report 22, Manhattan Institute Center for Civic Innovation, New York.Google Scholar
[62]Kelly, M. (2000) Inequality and crime. Rev. Econ. Stat. 82 (4), 530–539.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[63]Killias, M. (2006) Improving impact evaluations through randomised experiments: The challenge of the national research council report for european criminology. J. Exp. Criminol. 2, 375–391.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[64]Kreuter, F. & Muthén, B. (2008) Analyzing criminal trajectory profiles: Bridging multilevel and group-based approaches using growth mixture modeling. J. Quant. Criminol. 24, 1–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[65]Kuziemko, I. & Levitt, S. D. (2004) An empirical analysis of imprisoning drug offenders. J. Public Econ. 88, 2043–2066.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[66]LaFree, G. (1999) Declining violent crime rates in the 1990s: Predicting crime booms and busts. Annu. Rev. Sociol. 25, 145–168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[67]Langlais, E. (2008) Detection avoidance and deterrence: some paradoxical arithmetic. Journal of Public Economic Theory 10 (3)371–382.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[68]LeBlanc, M. (1986) Editorial. la prédiction des comportements antisociaux: un défi. Criminologie 19 (2), 3–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[69]Lee, D. S. & McCrary, J. (2005) Crime, Punishment, and Myopia. NBER Working Paper No. W11491. Accessed 30 March 2010. URL: http//ssrn.com/abstract=762770.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[70]Levitt, S. (1997) Using electoral cycles in police hiring to estimate the effect of police on crime. Am. Econ. Rev. 87 (3), 270–290.Google Scholar
[71]Levitt, S. D. (1998) Juvenile crime and punishment. J.Pol. Econ. 106 (6), 1156–1185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[72]Levitt, S. D. (September 1999) The changing relationship between income and crime victimization. Econ. Policy Rev. 5, 88–98.Google Scholar
[73]Levitt, S. D. (2001) Alternative strategies for identifying the link between unemployment and crime. J. Quant. Criminol. 17 (4), 377–390.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[74]Levitt, S. D. (2002) Using electoral cycles in police hiring to estimate the effects of police on crime: Reply. Am. Econ. Rev. 92 (4), 1244–1250.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[75]Liu, H. & Brown, E. (2003) Criminal incident prediction using a point-pattern-based density model. Int. J. Forecast. 19, 603–622.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[76]Lochner, L. & Moretti, E. (2004) The effect of education on crime: Evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self-reports. Am. Econ. Rev. 94 (1), 155–189.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[77]Maltz, M. D. & Mullany, J. M. (2000) Visualizing lives: New pathways for analyzing life course trajectories. J. Quant. Criminol. 16 (2), 255–281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[78]Maltz, M. D. & Targonski, J. (2002) A note on the use of county-level UCR data. J. Quant. Criminol. 18 (3), 297–318.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[79]Mathiesen, T. (1998) Selective incapacitation revisited. Law Hum. Behav. 22 (4), 455–469.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[80]McCord, J. (2000) Longitudinal analysis : An introduction to the special issue. J. Quant. Criminol. 16 (2), 113–115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[81]McCrary, J. (2002) Using electoral cycles in police hiring to estimate the effect of police on crime: Comment. Am. Econ. Rev. 92 (4), 1236–1243.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[82]Michard, Q. & Bouchaud, J.-P.Theory of collective opinion shifts: from smooth trends to abrupt swings. Eur. Phys. J. B 47 (2005), 151–159. Working paper, URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0504079.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[83]Nadal, J.-P., Phan, D., Gordon, M. B. & Vannimenus, J. (2005) Multiple equilibria in a monopoly market with heterogeneous agents and externalities. Quant. Finance 5 (6), 557–568.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[84]Nagin, D. S. (1999) Analyzing developmental trajectories: A semi-parametric, group-based approach. Psychol. Methods 4 (2), 139–157.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[85]No, J. C. N., Herrero, M. A. & Primicerio, M. (2008) A triangle model of criminality. Physica A 387, 2926–2936.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[86]Olligschlaeger, A. M. (1998) Artificial neural networks and crime. In: Weisburd, D. & McEwen, T. (editors), Crime Mapping and Crime Prevention: Crime Prevention Studies, Vol. 8, Criminal Justice Press, Monsey, NY, pp. 313–347.Google Scholar
[87]Phan, D., Gordon, M. B. & Nadal, J.-P. (2004) Social interactions in economic theory: an insight from statistical mechanics. In: Bourgine, P. & Nadal, J.-P. (editors), Cognitive Economics, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, pp. 335–358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[88]Piquero, A. R. (2000) Assessing the relationships between gender, chronicity, seriousness, and offense skewness in criminal offending. J. Criminal Justice 28, 103–115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[89]Piquero, A. R. & Blumstein, A. (2007) Does incapacitation reduce crime? J. Quant. Criminol. 23, 267–285.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[90]Quételet, A. (1835) Essai de Physique Sociale, ed. Bachelier, Paris. Available at URL: http://gallica2.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k81570d.Google Scholar
[91]Rosenfeld, R. (2006) Connecting the dots: Crime rates and criminal justice evaluation research. J. Exp. Criminol. 2, 309–319.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[92]Sah, R. K.Social osmosis and patterns of crime. J. Political Econ. 99 (6) (1991), 1272–1295.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[93]Salas, D. (2005) La volonté de punir, Essai sur le populisme pénal. Paris, France, Hachette Littératures.Google Scholar
[94]Salas, D. (September 21, 2006) Punir n'est pas la seule finalité. L'Express (French daily newspaper).Google Scholar
[95]Schelling, T. S. (1971) Dynamic models of segregation. J. Math. Sociol. 1, 143–186.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[96]Schelling, T. S. (1973) Hockey helmets, concealed weapons, and daylight saving: A study of binary choices with externalities. J. Conflict Resolution 57 (3), 381–428.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[97]Short, M. B., D'Orsogna, M. R., Pasour, V. B., Tita, G. E., Brantingham, P. J., Bertozzi, A. L. & Chayes, L. B. (2008) A statistical model of criminal behavior. Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci. 18, 1249–1267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[98]Smith, P., Goggin, C. & Gendreau, P. (2002) The Effects of Prison Sentences and Intermediate Sanctions on Recidivism: General Effects and Individual Differences. Tech. rep., Solicitor General of Canada, URL: http://www.sgc.gc.ca.Google Scholar
[99]Spelman, W. (2008) Specifying the relationship between crime and prisons. J. Quant. Criminol. 24, 149–178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[100]Tedesco, L. (2000) La ñata contra el vidrio: Urban violence and democratic governability in Argentina. Bull. Latin Am. Res. 19 (4), 527–545.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[101]Villettaz, P., Killias, M. & Zoder, I. (2006) The effects of custodial vs. non-custodial sentences on re-offending: A the effects of custodial vs. non-custodial sentences on re-offending: A the effects of custodial vs. non-custodial sentences on re-offending: A systematic review of the state of knowledge. Campbell Syst. Rev. 13, 1–64.Google Scholar
[102]Wilson, J. Q. & Kelling, G. L. (March 1982) Broken windows: The police and neighborhood safety. The Atlantic Monthly Magazine.Google Scholar
[103]Winoto, P. (2002) A simulation of the market for offenses in multiagent systems: Is zero crime rates attainable? In Lecture Notes in Computer Science 2581/2003, Multi-Agent-Based Simulation II. Ed Springer Berlin/Heidelberg, pp. 181–194.Google Scholar
[104]Witte, A. D. & Tauchen, H. V. (1994) Work and crime: An exploration using panel data. Public Finance 49, 155–167.Google Scholar
[105]Wolfgang, M. E., Figlio, R. & Sellin, T. (1994) Delinquency in a Birth Cohort in Pennsylvania, 1945–1963 [computer file]. Tech. Rep., Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research, Ann Arbor, MI. doi:10.3886/ICPSR07729.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[106]Xu, R. & Wunsch, D. (2005) Survey of clustering algorithms. IEEE Trans. Neural Netw. 16 (3), 645–678.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
[107]Yang, B. & Lester, D. (2008) The deterrent effect of executions: A meta-analysis thirty years after Ehrlich. J. Criminal Justice 36, 453–460.CrossRefGoogle Scholar