Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-ph5wq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-27T17:59:08.349Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Polish transition to democracy : a game-theoretic approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 July 2009

Jakub Zielinski
Affiliation:
University of Chicago(Chicago).
Get access

Abstract

This article present a gametheoretic model of the transition to democracy in Poland. The events in Poland are conceptualized as a strategic game between a government and an opposition. The transition is modeled as a sequence of intentional decisions about political arrangements. During the 1980s Poland went through three such arrangements: dictatorship, broadened dictatorship, and democracy. Each one is understood as a game-theoretic equilibrium. The transition between two political arrangements is explained as a shift from one equilibrium to another. These shifts occurred because the probability of Soviet intervention diminished over time, changing incentives for the government and the opposition.

Cet article présente, selon la théorie des jeux, un modèle de transition démocratique en Pologne. Les événements en Pologne sont considérés comme un jeu de stratégic entre un gouvernement et son opposition. La transition est modèlisée comme unc chaîne de décisions intentionnelles concernant les dispositifs politiques. Durant les années 80, la Pologne a traversé trois états : dictature, dictature élargie et démocratie. Chacun est considéré comme un équilibre théorique. Le passage de l'un à l'autre est vu comme le déplacement d'un équilibre à l'autre. Ces mutations se sont faites à mesure que la probabilité d'intervention soviétique diminuait, changeant les incitations du gouvernement et de l'opposition.

Der Übergang zur Demokratie in Polen wird hier im Rahmen eines theoretischen Spielmodells beschrieben. Die polnischen Ereignisse werden zu einem strategischen Spiel zwischen Regierung und Opposition. Der Übergang zu einer Folge vorsätzlicher Entscheidungen über politische Vereinbarungen. Im Laufe der 1980er Jahre kannte Polen drei Vereinbarungen dieser Art: Diktatur, erweiterte Diktatur und Demokratie. Jede einzelne versteht sich als ein theoretisches fiktives Gleichgewicht. Der Übergang zwischen zwei politischen Vereinbarungen wird als ein Wechsel von einem Gleichgewicht zum anderen verstanden. Diese Veränderungen wurden umso deutlicher als die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer russischen Einmischung abnahm, die die Ziele für Regierung und Opposition veränderte.

Type
Threats and bluffs in East European transitions
Copyright
Copyright © Archives Européenes de Sociology 1995

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Banks, Jeffrey, Signaling Games in Political Science (Chur, Switzerland, Harwood Academic Publishers, 1994).Google Scholar
Cipkowski, Peter, Revolution in Eastern Europe: understanding the collapse of communism in Poland, Hungary, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania, and the Soviet Union (New York, Wiley, 1991).Google Scholar
Eisler, Jerzy, Zarys Dziejow Politycznych Polski 1944–1989 (Warszawa, Polska Oficyna Wydawnicza ‘BGW’, 1992).Google Scholar
Frankland, Mark, The Patriots' Revolution: how Eastern Europe toppled communism and won its freedom (Chicago, I.R. Dee, 1992).Google Scholar
Fudenberg, Drew and Tirole, Jean, Game Theory (Cambridge, Massachusetts, The MIT Press, 1993).Google Scholar
Garthon-Ash, Timothy, We the People, the Revolution of ′89 witnessed in Warsaw (New York, Penguin Books, 1990).Google Scholar
Geremek, Bronislaw, Rok 1989 Geremek Opowiada Zakowski Pyta (Warsaw, Plejada, 1990).Google Scholar
Heller, Michal, Polska w Oczach Moskwy (Paryz, Instytut Literacki, 1984).Google Scholar
Holzer, Jerzy, Solidarnosc w Podziemiu (Lodz, Wydawnictwo Lodzkie, 1990).Google Scholar
Kaluza, Roman, Polska Wybory ′89 (Warsaw, Andrzej Bonarski, 1989).Google Scholar
Karpinski, Jakub, Dziwna Wojna (Paris, Instytut Literacki, 1990).Google Scholar
Kiszczak, Jerzy, Tajemnice Magdalenki, Polityka, 34 (09 07, 1990).Google Scholar
Kreps, David, Notes on the Theory of Choice (Boulder, Westview Press, 1988).Google Scholar
Kuron, Jacek, Polityka i Odpowiedzialnosc (London, Aneks, 1984).Google Scholar
Lipset, Martin and Rokkan, Stein, Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-national Perspectives (New York, Free Press, 1967).Google Scholar
Lohman, Susanne, The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989–91, World Politics 47 (10 1994), 42101.Google Scholar
Lopinski, Maciej et al. , Konspira: Solidarity Underground (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1990).Google Scholar
Malcher, George, Poland's Politicized Army (New York, Praeger, 1984).Google Scholar
Michnik, Adam, Letters from Prison and Other Essays (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1985).Google Scholar
Michta, Andrew, Red Eagle: The Army in Polish Politics 1944–1988 (Stanford, Hoover Institute Press, 1990).Google Scholar
Millard, Frances, The Anatomy of The New Poland (Hants England, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1994).Google Scholar
Moore, Barrington, Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston, Beacon, 1965).Google Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo et al. , Transitions from Authoritarian Rule. Tentative Conclusious about Uncertain Democracies (Baltimore, The John Hopkins University Press, 1986).Google Scholar
Pasierba, Bronislawa, Zycie Polityczne Polski Lat Osiemdziesiatych (Wroclaw, Wydawnictwo Universytetu Wroclawskiego, 1991).Google Scholar
Pernal, Marek and Skorzynski, Jan, Kalendarium Solidarnosci (Warszawa, Versus, 1990).Google Scholar
Ploss, Sidney, Moscow and the Polish Crisis: an interpretation of Soviet policies (London, Westview Press, 1986).Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, Democracy and the market (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991).Google Scholar
Rachwald, Arthur, In Search of Poland: the superpowers' response to Solidarity 1980–1989 (Stanford, Hoover Institution Press, 1990).Google Scholar
Ross, Johnson, East European Military Establishments (The Rand Corporation, 1992).Google Scholar
Sanford, George, Military Rule in Poland (New York, St. Martin's Press, 1986).Google Scholar
Staar, F., Richard, (ed.), Transition to Democracy in Poland (New York, St. Martin's Press, 1993).Google Scholar
Walesa, Lech, The Struggle and the Triumph (New York, Arcade Publishing, 1991).Google Scholar
Walesa, LechLech Walesa (Gdansk, Wydawnictwo Morskie, 1990).Google Scholar
Widacki, Jan, Czego Nie Powiedzial General Kiszczak (Warszawa, Polska Oficyna Wydawniczna ‘BGW’, 1992).Google Scholar
Wlodek, Zbigniew (ed.), Tajne Dokumenty Biura Politycznego 1980/1981 (London, Aneks, 1992).Google Scholar
Wozniuk, Vladimir, From Crisis to Crisis: Soviet Polish relations in the 1970's (Ames, Iowa, Iowa State University Press, 1987).Google Scholar