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Role of expectations in land allocation towards fruit crops:the case of apple

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 October 2010

Pradeep Kumar Mehta*
Affiliation:
Flat No.6, GH-8, Sector 5, MDC, Panchkula, 134109 Haryana, India
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Abstract

Introduction. Higher allocation of land in favour of fruits is vital toraise the farm income and productivity, but such an opportunity is also complemented withhigher risk and uncertainty. Economic expectation assumes a great role, while suchdecisions have an impact on the welfare of farmers in terms of their income and risk. Inthis paper, we examined the nature of price expectations, their relationship with othereconomic factors, and analysed the importance of price and income expectations of thefruit (apple) growers on their land allocation decisions. Materials andmethods. In this paper, the elicitation technique was used to obtain both priceand income expectations of apple growers. The price expectations were compared with theactual price of apple over the last three years and then linked with farmers' input-usepropensities. A regression method was used to identify the role of expectations in thedecision of land allocation in favour of apple crops. Results and conclusion.Our results showed that better price expectation improves the input-use (generally labour)propensities. However, for allocation of the inelastic factor of production,i.e., land, in favour of a fruit crop, it is the income expectationsthat explain farmers’ decisions. Farmers’ capacity to generate higher productivity alongwith the better market prospects together explain their decision regarding allocating landto high value fruit crops.

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Type
Original article
Copyright
© 2010 Cirad/EDP Sciences

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